Six Golfers Worth Betting At The 153rd Open Championship

Golf's final major of the season, The 153rd Open Championship, a tournament I've done quite well in over the years, is at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland. After hitting Collin Morikawa and Cameron Smith at The Open in 2021-22 to start my PGA TOUR betting career, I've "taken a bath" in the last two seasons. 

I'm back to reclaim my third Claret Jug in five years and to end my golf gambling cold streak. This is the third Open Championship held outside England and Scotland, and all three have been at Portrush. As per tradition, monitor the weather forecast during the week before locking in your bets, fantasy lineups, survivor picks, etc.

Listen: OUTKICK BETS PODCAST's THE 153rd OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW

Last week's Genesis Scottish Open wasn't as brutal from a betting perspective as the previous five events. All five of my picks made the cut, with Nicolai Højgaard finishing T4, three strokes behind the winner, Chris Gotterup. Yet, I won't deem it a "close call" since Højgaard was five shots off the lead heading into the final round. 

Regardless, I'm -16.64 units (u) entering this week. I'm starting my 2025 Open betting card with Jon Rahm (+1200) at the top, followed by two more major champions and three guys with PGA TOUR wins this year. I'm betting to profit 21u on Rahm, 20u on the other golfers, and backing four with top-20 (including ties) wagers. Let's get into my action for Royal Portrush. 

The 153rd Open Championship Bet Slip 

A ‘Six-Pack’ For Royal Portrush 

The following odds are from when I bet on the golfers listed below, and they may have changed since then. 

• Jon Rahm (+1200) via DraftKings, risking 1.75u.
• Brooks Koepka (+6600) via BetMGM, risking 0.3u, and TOP-20 including ties (+210) via DraftKings, risking 0.5u.
• Hideki Matsuyama (+9000) via DraftKings, risking 0.22u, and TOP-20 including ties (+250) via BetMGM, risking 0.5u.
• Ben Griffin (+9000) via FanDuel, risking 0.22u, and TOP-20 including ties (+260) via BetMGM, risking 0.5u.
• Min Woo Lee (+12000) via FanDuel, risking 0.17u.
• Nick Taylor (+15000), risking 0.13u, and TOP-20 including ties (+375) via BetMGM, risking 0.5u.

Jon Rahm (+1200)

Anything above +1000 for Rahm is a steal. He has the most strokes gained (SG) in the last five Opens, since 2019; the last time it was Royal Portrush. Rahm’s finishes were T11 in 2019, T3 in 2021, T34 in 2022, T2 in 2023, and T7 last year. That T2 two years ago was at Royal Liverpool, the other Harry Colt course in the Open rota, and it resembles Portrush the most. 

After sucking last season, his first on the LIV Tour, which isn’t a coincidence, Rahm is playing like his old self. The Spaniard was T14 at the 2025 Masters, T8 at the PGA Championship, and T7 at the U.S. Open. A nine-time PGA TOUR winner, an eight-time winner on the DP World Tour, and a two-time Irish Open champion (2017 and 2019), Rahm can win on any golf course. 

Jon Rahm hits his tee shot during the first round of the 148th Open Championship at Royal Portrush Golf Club in Northern Ireland. (Photo credit: Stuart Franklin/Getty Images)

He is long and straight off the tee, great with his long irons, chips well, and can putt his way to a victory. Rahm is the first European to win the Masters (2023) and U.S. Open (2021), and he’s only 30 years old. This will be his ninth Open Championship, which is the sweet spot for the new Champion Golfers of the Year. 

Finally, I’m more willing to bet Rahm at these short odds because I don’t bet the LIV Tour and started betting the PGA TOUR when he was single digits on the odds board. Well, again, he’s looking like that guy, thus making +1200 for Rahm a good bet. 

Brooks Koepka (+6600)

Brooks got off the mat with a T12 at the 2025 U.S. Open after missing the cut at the Masters and PGA Championship. His best finish in The Open Championship was a T4 at Royal Portrush in 2019. Koepka shot under-par for three rounds before struggling in bad weather Sunday in the final round. 

The four-time American Ryder Cupper has experience on links courses, from his days on the Challenge Tour in Europe, where he won four times. With five major championships at 35 years old, Brooks checks the box of "experienced winners" on the "Past Champion Golfers of the Year" survey. 

While often regarded as a bomber, Koepka is good with every club bag. Per DataGolf.com, he gained strokes across the board (driving, on approach, chipping, and putting) at the U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club, one of the toughest courses in the world, where only the winner, J.J. Spaun, shot under-par. 

Ultimately, Brooks isn’t old by golf standards; he has the best major championship history of anyone in this field not named "Rory McIlroy," and there are several guys who have no business being ahead of Koepka on the odds board. That said, Brooks has betting value at odds north of +5000. 

Hideki Matsuyama (+9000)

This is just a "value play" for my favorite golfer, who struggled after winning The Sentry in January but has started to show form recently. Hideki led the field in SG: Approach (APP) in his last start, a T13 at the Rocket Classic, and ranked fifth in SG: APP in his T42 at the U.S. Open. 

Granted, those finishes aren't anything for the 2021 Masters champion and 11-time PGA TOUR winner to brag about. Yet, Matsuyama has been dialed in with the irons since the Masters and has gained strokes putting in six of his last seven starts, including three "signature events," and the 2025 PGA Championship. 

Furthermore, Hideki is fourth on TOUR this year in APP from 175-200 yards and 15th from 200+ yards, and strong long-iron play is a must to win any major. Lastly, Matsuyama is a wizard around-the-green (ARG), ranks fifth on TOUR this year in SG: ARG, and the tricky green complexes are the teeth of Royal Portrush. 

Ben Griffin (+9000)

We are getting a good price for the hottest golfer on TOUR behind Scottie Scheffler. Preceded by a T8 at the PGA Championship, Griffin got his first solo win at the 2025 Charles Schwab Challenge, and followed it up with a second at the Memorial Tournament ("signature event"), T10 at the U.S. Open, T14 at the Travelers Championship ("signature event"), and T13 at the Rocket Classic. 

He fell back to earth by missing the cut at the John Deere Classic as the betting favorite in his last start. But, Griffin bogeyed the 17th hole and double-bogeyed the 18th hole in the second round of the John Deere to miss the cut by two strokes. So, it wasn't an embarrassing performance, and he took a much-needed break after playing 10 of the previous 11 events. 

Finally, Griffin ranks third in my 40-round model at Bet The Number, finished T4 at the 2025 Cognizant Classic at a crossover course to Portrush (PGA National), and second in the 2024 RBC Canadian Open at Hamilton Golf and Country Club, designed by Colt. He's always had a good short game, but Griffin has been hitting the ball harder, which makes him a threat to win any tournament. 

Min Woo Lee (+12000) 

He’s been mostly bad since winning the 2025 Houston Open in March, but Min Woo showed signs of life his last time out with a T13 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Lee is one of the few people who can overpower any course in the world, and he has a sneaky good short-game, gaining strokes around the greens and putting in the last three Open Championships. 

Also, TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Championship) and PGA National have been compared to Portrush, and Min Woo has played well at both. Lee fell to T6 in the 2023 PLAYERS, but played in the final group with Scottie in Round 4. He was T20 at THE PLAYERS this year and gained 14.3 strokes putting those two years. He was T11 at the 2025 Cognizant, gaining strokes across the board. 

Nick Taylor (+15000)

The only Canadian golfer with any "dog in him," Taylor ended his country’s 69-year drought by winning the 2024 RBC Canadian Open. Plus, four of Taylor’s five PGA TOUR victories were at courses that compare to Royal Portrush. Three of those wins were in playoffs, going back to my point that Taylor has "dog in him." The Canadian Open's course rota is similar to European venues. 

He won the 2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and Pebble Beach is the most famous American links course. Taylor won the 2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale, featuring several "risk-reward" holes similar to those at Portrush. He won the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club in Hawaii earlier this year, which obviously has coastal conditions.

Taylor is coming in better form than the market realizes, too. He is eighth in the world in total SG over his last five starts, according to DataGolf.com. This includes a T4 at the Memorial, a T13 in Canada, a T23 at the U.S. Open, a T17 at the Travelers, and a T22 at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open.

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The 153rd Open Championship ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Jon Rahm

As I wrote in my "First-Look Betting Odds For The 153rd Open Championship" article, I'm all-in on Rahm this week. I didn't use him for the U.S. Open, saving him for The Open because of his all-world game and popularity at the U.S. Open in the "Race for the 2025 Mayo Cup," given Oakmont's randomness. 

Hopefully, Phase #2 of my strategy works. I'm 12th in the standings, which pays $10,000, and the winner gets $100,000. The first two rounds of the FedExCup Playoffs (FedEx St. Jude and BMW Championships) are the last "big-boy events" remaining after The Open, and only two entries ahead of me have Rahm available. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X throughout the entire season.