2025 Genesis Scottish Open: Betting To Return To The 'Viktor-y' Circle

We head to golf's birthplace this week for the 2025 Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick. Since 2022, the Scottish Open has been a co-sanctioned event with roughly half of the field from the PGA TOUR and the other half from the DP World Tour. And, despite Scotland's rich golf history, American Tom Doak designed The Renaissance Club. 

Listen: OUTKICK BETS PODCAST's 2025 Genesis Scottish Open Preview 

I'm going with "low exposure" for the Scottish Open this year because of the likelihood that World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler or World No. 2 and 2023 Scottish Open champion, Rory McIlroy, wins this week. Yet, Scottie's betting odds are +360 and Rory is +800, and I don't like either enough this week to "single-bullet" bet them. 

Instead, I'm only risking a combined 1.87 units (u) on my five outright picks to earn a 20u profit if one of those golfers wins. Hopefully, my luck turns around in Scotland because I've been "running bad" on the PGA TOUR lately, with four of my picks finishing inside the top-four in the last five tournaments. Let's get the monkey off my back this week. 

2025 Genesis Scottish Open Betting Card

‘Starting 5’ for The Renaissance Club

The following odds are from when I bet on the golfers listed below, and they may have changed since then. 

• Viktor Hovland (+4000) via FanDuel, risking 0.5u.
• Sam Burns (+4000) via DraftKings, risking 0.5u.
• Adam Scott (+5500) via FanDuel, risking 0.36u.
• Ryan Fox (+6500) via DraftKings, risking 0.31u.
• Nicolai Højgaard (+10000) via Bet365, risking 0.2u.

Viktor Hovland (+4000) 

Hovland was +2000 at last year’s Scottish Open. He is double the price this year because he withdrew with a neck injury during the third round of the 2025 Travelers Championship in his last start, and Scheffler is in the field after not playing in 2024. 

But, because he won the Valspar Championship and finished third in the 2025 U.S. Open last month, and recent weak performances by the golfers ahead of him on the oddsboard, Hovland’s fair odds are +2500. He is a seven-time PGA TOUR winner and the 2023 TOUR Champion, who has recently looked like a top-five player in the world. 

Furthermore, Hovland is second behind Scheffler in my 24-round model at Fantasy National. He ranks seventh or better in this field in Strokes Gained (SG): Off-the-Tee (OTT) and Approach (APP), Par 5 scoring, and Birdies-or-Better (BoB) Gained. His +2.76 SG: APP at the 2025 Travelers led the field by a country mile, 1.30 strokes better than the next closest golfer, Gary Woodland, at +1.46.

That said, I’m overlooking Hovland’s withdrawal from the Travelers because he's been all over Instagram this week, partying with his buddies in Spain, and next week is The Open Championship. Hence, why would he risk playing through injury at a non-major if he wasn't healthy? Is this the soundest logic? Probably not, but I cannot pass up Hovland at +3500 or better. 

Sam Burns (+4000) 

Maybe his two recent heartbreaking losses have Burns dead inside, allowing him to play loose and free. I'm talking about his loss in a playoff to Ryan Fox at the RBC Canadian Open, thanks to missing a would-be tournament-winning six-foot putt, and Burns' T7 at the U.S. Open when he blew a three-round lead by shooting a final-round +8. 

Regardless, Burns is second in this field behind Scheffler in total SG over the last five tournaments, per DataGolf.com. This includes a T19 at the PGA Championship, a T12 at the Memorial, that runner-up in Canada, that aforementioned choke job at the U.S. Open, and a T17 at the Travelers his last time out. 

If the calm weather forecast for North Berwick, Scotland, holds up, the Scottish Open will be easy tee-to-green, turning it into a "putting contest" or "birdie fest." Burns is the best putter in the world and ranks ninth on TOUR this year in BoB conversion rate, which calculates how many times someone makes a BoB when hitting a green in regulation. 

Adam Scott (+5500) 

The 2021 Masters champion was one stroke behind Burns entering the final round of the 2025 U.S. Open and played with him in the final group that Sunday. Scott shot a final-round 79 (+9) and finished T12. But what stood out the most was the NBC TV broadcast's report that Scott didn't think he should be a Hall of Famer unless he won another major. 

Scott is putting in the work to get his second major title. He's increased his ball speed and is hammering the ball OTT. Scott has gained strokes with the driver in five consecutive starts, including the PGA Championship, the Memorial, and the U.S. Open, all at driver-heavy courses, and he was second in SG: Ball-Striking at the U.S. Open last month.

Adam Scott tees off on the 16th hole during the 2024 Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick. (Photo credit: Harry How/Getty Images)

He was second at last year's Scottish Open, led the field in BoB, and should've, could've won. During the final round, Robert MacIntyre controversially got relief from a sprinkler head in the rough on the Par-5 Hole No. 16, stuck his second shot to six feet from the pin, and made the eagle putt. Then, MacIntyre drained a 22-foot putt on the final hole to win the Scottish Open. 

Scott has gained strokes putting in five straight Scottish and Open Championships and gained strokes driving, chipping, and on approach in both last year. Between his plus-distance OTT, impressive track record in the United Kingdom (seven career top-10s in The Open Championship), and solid odds, Scott is a guy worth betting at the Scottish Open. 

Ryan Fox (+6500) 

Fox is on a heater with two wins — Myrtle Beach Classic and the RBC Canadian Open — in his last six starts, and four top-30 finishes in the other tournaments at two majors (PGA Championship and U.S. Open) and two "signature events" (the Memorial Tournament and Travelers Championship). 

He’s gained strokes driving and on approach in six of his last seven starts, according to DataGolf.com. Bombers play well at the Renaissance Club — Min Woo Lee won in 2021, Xander Schauffele in 2022, and Rory in 2023 — and Fox is 19th in Club Head Speed on TOUR this season. 

MacIntyre won the 2024 RBC Canadian Open before winning in Scotland. Maybe Fox can duplicate that since TPC Toronto, this year's Canadian Open host, is a European-like course that favors "bombers." Also, the Kiwi has gained strokes putting in his last four starts, including the Memorial and U.S. Open at courses with some of the toughest greens in golf. 

Lastly, Fox has "been around the block" and has four wins on the DP World Tour in Europe. Before you laugh, two of these wins were against strong fields: 2023 BMW PGA Championship in England featuring Rory, Hovland, Jon Rahm, Tommy Fleetwood, etc., and the 2022 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship with those guys, and more, in Scotland. 

Nicolai Højgaard (+10000) 

I'd be willing to bet Nicolai at +6000 because I'm a believer in his talent and have bet him several times in the past two seasons. The 24-year-old played on the 2023 European Ryder Cup team and earned his full-time PGA TOUR card last year by winning the 2023 DP World Tour Championship over several elite golfers like Rory, Fleetwood, Hovland, and Rahm. 

Moreover, Højgaard is fifth in my 20-round model at Bet The Number. Nicolai is second in this field for Ball Speed, fifth in APP shots from 175+ yards, and sixth in BoB rate over that span. I.e., Højgaard's game is perfect for The Renaissance Club and finished T6 at the 2023 Scottish Open. Ultimately, Nicolai is a "bomber" who can pile up birdies with four wins on the DP World Tour. 

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Genesis Scottish Open ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Viktor Hovland

I'm torn between Hovland and Scott. In fact, I gave out Scott as my One-And-Done pick on this week's OutKick Bets Podcast. However, I'm flipping to Hovland because he is only playing three more events this year. I'm already using Rahm for next week's Open Championship, and I have several top-tier golfers for the two FedExCup Playoff events.

While I like Scott this week, it would be irresponsible to pick him and pass on Hovland this year. Plus, I'm in 12th out of 4,500 entries in the "Race for the Mayo Cup," which pays out $10,000, first place wins $100,000, and the 11 entries ahead of me don't have as many top-tier golfers. So, some of them are likely saving Hovland for one of the three remaining big tournaments. 

There are two more reasons I'm choosing Hovland over Scott. First, my partner in the Mayo Cup (my girlfriend) is feeling Hovland this week, and she's picked two of our four winners this season. Second, Hovland has a wave advantage in the first round because Scott tees off Thursday morning, which is windier than the afternoon when Hovland begins his Scottish Open. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X throughout the entire season.