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NFL Week 1 was a good start for me in the Circa Million V NFL handicapping contest. I finished 4-1 and two of my four wins were locks. The Los Angeles Rams boat-raced the Seattle Seahawks and the Cleveland Browns shutdown the Cincinnati Bengals.
Week 1 Recap (4-1):
- Texans (+10) at Ravens ❌
- Buccaneers (+5.5) at Vikings ✅
- Jets (+2) vs. Bills ✅
- Rams (+5.5) at Seahawks ✅
- Browns (+2.5) vs. Bengals ✅
Here are the Circa Million V lines for NFL Week 2 followed by my picks …
Circa Million V NFL Week 2 Picks
Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, and fifth is least.
- Lions (-4.5)
- Bengals (-3.5)
- Dolphins (-2.5)
- Broncos (-3.5)
- Titans (+3)
Circa Million Pick #1: Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-4.5)
This is a Revenge Game for Detroit coach Dan Campbell and the Lions. They were the last team out of the 2022 NFC postseason race. The Seahawks were the 7th and final NFC wild card seed. As +4.5 road ‘dogs, Seattle upset Detroit 48-45 in Week 4 last year in what turned out to the playoff tiebreaker.
We know Campbell is going to use this to hype his guys up. Also, the Lions have mad momentum. Detroit has won eight of its past 10 games dating back to last season and 9-1 against the spread (ATS).
DAN CAMPBELL GIVES INCREDIBLE F-BOMB LACED SPEECH AFTER BEATING THE CHIEFS: ‘BUILT THAT F**KING WAY’
The Lions upset the Packers in Week 18 last year to eliminate Green Bay from playoff contention. They beat Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs 21-20 in the NFL Kickoff Game last week.
Furthermore, both of these games were on the road. The Lions were clearly the best team to not make the playoffs last year and their fans know it. Ford Field is going to be rocking Sunday.
Plus, the Seahawks missing both starting tackles and their offensive line is a bottom-10 unit in the NFL this week. Detroit pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson could be in Seattle QB Geno Smith‘s face all day. If Geno has pressure in his face, he is screwed. Point blank.
This can be a bounce-back spot for Detroit’s offense. The Lions only scored 21 points in Week 1 vs. a league-average Chiefs defense. But, Matthew Stafford and a bunch of no-name Rams WRs dropped 30 points on the Seahawks last week.
Last year, Lions QB Jared Goff put up 45 points vs. the Seahawks without former RB D’Andre Swift and No.1 WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. Swift went to the Eagles in free agency but the Lions drafted RB Jahmyr Gibbs in the 1st round this year.
Either way, Detroit’s offense is better in Week 2 than it was last year when the Lions lost to Seattle. St. Brown was a breakout star last season and Gibbs is a dual-threat halfback that adds another dimension to Detroit’s offense.
Finally, there are solid trends to throw into this Seahawks-Lions handicap. Detroit’s last game was Thursday, Sept. 7th. In the Campbell era (est. 2021), the Lions are 3-1 ATS on extended rest and 3-1 SU and ATS as home favorites.
(LISTEN to Seahawks-Lions analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #2: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)
Baltimore is banged-up everywhere and could be without five starters in Week 2. They are definitely missing RB J.K. Dobbins, CB Marlon Humphrey, FS Marcus Williams, LT Ronnie Staley, and C Tyler Linderbaum. Ravens TE Mark Andrews is “questionable” as well.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow had the worst game of his career vs. the Cleveland Browns in Week 1. But, the Browns have a legit No. 1 CB (Denzel Ward) and, one of the best defensive players in the NFL, pass rusher Myles Garrett.
The Ravens have a weak pass rush and are thin at secondary. In fact, outside of Humphrey, Baltimore’s cornerbacks are probably below-average. Moreover, I can show my math as to why the Bengals -3.5 is a good number.
In my NFL post-Week 1 power ratings, I made the Bengals 3.5 points better than the Ravens on a neutral field. However, this meeting is in Cincinnati, which gives the Bengals at least a two-point boost.
Again, Burrow played like trash in Week 1 and he could still be bothered by a calf injury sustained in training camp. That said, Burrow will have time in the pocket and Cincy WR Ja’Marr Chase shreds Baltimore’s defense.
Lastly, the Ravens didn’t look crisp last week under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. Being down two offensive linemen isn’t going to help things. Monken is going to have Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson dropback more and I’m not convinced that’s for the best.
(LISTEN to Ravens-Bengals analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #3: Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at New England Patriots
I already laid out my case for Miami beating and covering vs. New England on Sunday Night Football in Week 2. Essentially, I think Patriots QB Mac Jones sucks and will be a backup eventually. Also, Miami can make New England’s offense one-dimensional.
Last season, the Dolphins were 5th in rushing defensive success rate. Whenever the Patriots ask Jones to do more, they lose. New England has lost all seven games Jones has thrown 39 or more passes in.
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa and Miami’s offense looked amazing against the LA Chargers in Week 1. Tua is 4-0 SU and ATS in his career vs. the Patriots. My hunch is the Dolphins hammer the Patriots again this week.
(LISTEN to Dolphins-Patriots analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Pick #4: Washington Commanders at Denver Broncos (-3.5)
This is another pick I’ve already shown my math on earlier this week. The gist of my handicap is “Why are Sam Howell and Ron Rivera only +3.5 ‘dogs vs. Russell Wilson and Sean Payton in Mile-High?” Instead of re-writing or copying and pasting, just check out the article below …
Pick #5: Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans (+3)
The coaching mismatch in favor of Titans head coach Mike Vrabel vs. Chargers head coach Brandon Staley is why Tennessee +3 made my Circa Million V NFL Week 2 card.
Over the last two seasons, Los Angeles’ has been a bottom-10 rush defense in the NFL. A coach as good as Vrabel will be able to exploit that. Especially, with Derrick Henry who can dominate this soft Chargers defense.
Another reason Tennessee +3 is on my card is because I think LA minus the points will be a popular pick in the Circa Million V. This isn’t rocket science but, usually, the more popular contest plays tend to lose.
This is a “power ratings pick” for me. I make the Chargers a half-point better than the Titans on a neutral field. Except this game is in Tennessee, which should give the Titans a two-point boost. I.e.
(LISTEN to Chargers-Titans analysis on this week’s OutKick Bets Podcast with Geoff Clark HERE).
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.