How Does An Early College Football Top 25 Poll Look?

The 2025-2026 College Football season ended just a few days ago. It was a monumental year in the sport, with a massive shift in conference hierarchy, the importance of the transfer portal, and a demonstration that the traditional powers may not win every single title in the NIL era. 

Out of nowhere, the Indiana Hoosiers are National Champions after finishing off a 16-0 season. The Miami Hurricanes are officially back under Mario Cristobal, and were just a few plays away from winning the title themselves. The Big Ten has conclusively passed the SEC as the preeminent conference. And the portal means that teams are able to reload and rebuild faster than ever. 

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It also makes predicting outcomes or projecting team strength year-in and year-out that much harder. Which is why we already have our first "way-too-early" Top 25 poll. So how does it look?

Lane Kiffin, new head coach of the LSU Tigers, speaking at a press conference for his new program. (Photo by Gus Stark/LSU/University Images via Getty Images)

New Top 25 Poll Has Some Big Swings Already

It's obviously far too early to say with any degree of certainty who the best teams in the country will be for the 2026-2027 season. But it's a fair bet, given recent track records, to assume that the Ohio State Buckeyes and Georgia Bulldogs will be among the top handful of contending teams. And that's exactly what On3's new rankings suggest. 

Texas comes in at number three, Notre Dame at number four, defending champions Indiana number five. Oregon, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Miami and Oklahoma round out the top 10. 

Then comes the new head coaches. Expectations are high for Kyle Whittingham's first season in Ann Arbor, with Michigan number 11. Then there's Lane Kiffin at LSU coming in at number 12. BYU sits 13, before Penn State at 14 in the first year with Matt Campbell. Ole Miss in their first full season under Pete Golding is at 15, then Utah with new head coach Morgan Scalley. 

The best part of this poll? Alabama, after an atrocious ranking by the AP Poll voters to close out the season, isn't in the top 15. They don't deserve to be. Kalen DeBoer's Tide team sit 17, Washington 18, USC 19, and Tennessee rounds out the top 20. 

The Iowa Hawkeyes and Houston Cougars go 21, 22, then Virginia Tech under new head coach James Franklin at 23. Florida with Jon Sumrall is 24, and Arizona 25. 

At first glance, most of this seems reasonable. Though with the massive number of coaching changes this offseason, it's almost impossible to say with any degree of certainty how teams will respond. Michigan has Bryce Underwood returning, and Whittingham's track record makes a top-15 ranking realistic. Kiffin did an incredible job turning the Ole Miss program around, now has significantly more resources, and arguably the best transfer portal class in the country. Penn State lost a ton of players when Franklin was fired, but they too had a great portal class and could easily reload quickly. 

Alabama was wildly overrated in 2025, but always has top tier talent. SC had the number one high school recruiting class, but picked up an underwhelming group in the portal. And Indiana, well, it's hard to doubt Curt Cignetti. 

What this top 25 illustrates is that it's hard to put together a list based on guesswork. We simply don't know how new coaches will fit in their new homes. We don't know how important high school recruiting is, compared to a strong portal class. We don't know whether Arch Manning's development throughout the season will carry over into 2026. And we don't know if highly regarded quarterbacks like Bryce Underwood will make the leap in year two. 

All this uncertainty does, however, make a very clear point. The AP Preseason Top 25 poll simply shouldn't exist.