This Might Be The Most Unpredictable MLB Season In Decades

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We're essentially a week into the 2025 Major League Baseball season, and while there are months left before the 162-game marathon ends, there's already enough data to draw some conclusions. And through this tiny sample, there's one thing that's become clear: almost every major playoff race is going to go down to the wire.

There are two teams that have yet to lose; the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres. The Dodgers seemed ready to take their first loss of the season on Wednesday night, falling behind 5-0 to the Atlanta Braves in Los Angeles. Then Tommy Edman, Michael Conforto and Max Muncy sparked a comeback, tying the score at five in the eighth inning. 

Shohei Ohtani finished it with a first-pitch walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth off closer Raisel Iglesias on his MVP bobblehead night.

READ: Dodgers’ Thrilling Comeback on Ohtani Bobblehead Night Powers Historic Perfect Season

That moved the Dodgers to 8-0, with the surprising Padres just behind at 7-0. Several other teams have had their expected starts: the Mets, Phillies and Diamondbacks are all on track. But the real story of the first week isn't that there are still two undefeated teams, it's how many teams can realistically say they have a shot at playing October baseball. 

Shohei Ohtani Dodgers

Los Angeles, CA - April 02:  Shohei Ohtani #17 of the Los Angeles Dodgers watches his game winning walk off home run off relief pitcher Raisel Iglesias #26 of the Atlanta Braves in the ninth inning as the Dodgers defeated the Braves 6-5 to win a baseball game at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles on Wednesday, April 2, 2025.(Photo by Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images)

Parity In MLB Is Going To Create Season-Long Chaos

While the NL West refuses to lose, the Central Divisions are doing the opposite. All five teams in the AL Central, the Twins, Tigers, Royals, Guardians and White Sox, are 2-4 through the first week. Three of the five teams in the NL Central have a losing record. 

It's early, these are small samples, but it's a clear demonstration of how tightly bunched the league is going to be this season. 

In a 30-team league, per Fangraphs Playoff Odds calculations, there are just five that have under a 10% chance of making the postseason this year. There are 20 teams, yes, 20, with a greater than 30% chance of making the playoffs. 

Not only that; there's just one team with greater than 77% odds of making the playoffs. Which, unsurprisingly, is the Dodgers. But not one team in the American League can get past 67.2%, even the New York Yankees and their now-infamous torpedo bat. 

Here's how the American League currently shakes out, playoff odds-wise:

  • Yankees 67.2%
  • Rangers 63.5%
  • Mariners 55.4%
  • Orioles 51.5%
  • Red Sox 50.3%
  • Twins 49.3%
  • Blue Jays 48.3%
  • Astros 46.9%
  • Tigers 46.7%
  • Rays 44.6%
  • Royals 35.4%
  • Guardians 21.3%
  • Angels 10.2%
  • Athletics 9.1%
  • White Sox 0.1%

While the Angels, Athletics and White Sox are extremely unlikely to make postseason runs, the Royals and Guardians made the playoffs just last year. And they're near the bottom in playoff probability. There are eight teams that have between a 45-55% chance of making the playoffs. Eight. If it sounds like a recipe for chaos, that's because it is.

The NL is a bit more defined, thanks to the Dodgers, but even then, there are 10 teams with a 23 % or better chance of making the playoffs. 

So how did we get here, and what can we expect?

The modern iteration of both Major League Baseball ownership priorities and the postseason expansion have created incentives for organizations to build competitive, but not dominant, rosters. The Houston Astros might be the best example of this bizarre phenomenon. They play in one of the country's biggest markets, have consistently high attendance, and play in a weak division that's up for grabs. Entering the offseason, they also had superstar outfielder Kyle Tucker, who's been one of baseball's best and most consistent hitters the past four seasons. 

Sounds great, right? Build a lineup around Tucker, Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve, combine it with the Astros' typically excellent pitching and bullpen, and voila, you're division favorites. But because Tucker is set to reach free agency after the 2025 season, Houston traded him to the Chicago Cubs for more controllable, read: cheaper in the long term, talent. 

Exit Kyle Tucker, enter Isaac Parades. There's little doubt that Houston hurt its postseason probability by trading Tucker to save money in 2025 and beyond. But their priority clearly isn't maximizing its odds of winning each season, it's maintaining a certain level of profitability. This is what happens when owners treat their teams as a business concern first, and competitive enterprise second.

Teams like the Astros have also realized that there's little advantage in chasing every available win. The expanded postseason, where six teams from each league reach the playoffs, means that improving from 85 wins to 90 often isn't worth the cost. Whether in free agency dollars, or retaining expensive talent. This system has created incentives to build your team up to an 82-87 win level, and stopping there rather than spending extra money. Well, unless you're the Dodgers, Mets, Phillies and sometimes the Yankees.

This type of chaotic picture is the result. Oh, and as yet another example? The Cubs after acquiring Tucker, turned around and dealt Cody Bellinger to the Yankees so they wouldn't have to pay his salary. Sure, Bellinger might have brought them another couple of wins, but what's the point in that when they could save money instead? 

In a way, it's frustrating as a fan of the sport. In another way, it's going to make for a very exciting, tightly contested season. Likely, all the way through September. Almost every team will feel like they have a chance to at least make the playoffs. Though maybe only the Dodgers can feel supremely confident they will. Sometimes it's worth it to build the best possible team.