Masters Storylines: Who Can Actually Win, A Stable Of Debutants, Rory's Defense, And A Disrespected Scottie

Each edition of the Masters carries a different feel into what will end up being a historic week at Augusta National, but for the first time since 2015, the biggest storyline heading into the year's first major championship doesn't involve Rory McIlroy.

With McIlroy finally conquering Augusta National a year ago and becoming the sixth player to complete the career grand slam, he has the pleasure of driving down Magnolia Lane with the pressure of the entire golfing world occupying his shoulders. How a relaxed McIlroy attacks the golf course and all that goes along with being a defending champion will be a fascinating watch.

Rory McIlroy finally won his first Masters in 2025. (Kyle Terada-Imagn Images)

Then we have the best player in the world, Scottie Scheffler, being talked about as if he's just ‘another guy’ this week, despite still operating at the most elite of levels.

The overwhelming gist around this 90th edition of the Masters is that it's as wide open as it has been in quite some time. It feels like a trap to subscribe to that notion, given the cream always rises to the top at Augusta National, but at the same time, there isn't one sole player in the field anyone seems willing to circle in Sharpie.

We'll dissect this ‘wide open’ Masters and the many storylines you need to know heading into the best week in golf.

Who Can Actually Win The 2026 Masters?

One simply does not show up to Augusta National out of form and leave the property with a green jacket. A trend has been forming over each of the last four Masters, and that is the player who has played great golf in the build-up will have a chance to find the winner's circle come Sunday.

It may seem obvious to say the player in the best form has the best shot at winning the golf tournament, but in a tournament with an extremely limited field where your brain can trick you into thinking just about anyone can get the job done, it's worth keeping things simple.

Dating back to 2022, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Scottie Scheffler (twice) won at least once in the same calendar year before winning the Masters. All three players had at least three total Top 5s to their names that season as well.

The only multiple winners in 2026, whether it be on the PGA Tour, LIV Golf, or DP World Tour, in the Masters field this week are Chris Gotterup, Patrick Reed, Bryson DeChambeau, and Casey Jarvis. 

When looking at overall strokes gained total numbers in 2026 – a stat that reflects players operating at the highest levels relative to the tournament field – there are nine players who have gained at least 2.00 strokes this season, according to Data Golf.

1. Jon Rahm (2.69)

2. Scottie Scheffler (2.67)

3. Jake Knapp (2.46)

4. Jacob Bridgeman (2.38)

5. Cameron Young (2.20)

6. Collin Morikawa (2.19)

7. Matt Fitzpatrick (2.06)

8. Min Woo Lee (2.00)

9. Robert MacIntyre (2.00)

Knapp, Lee, and MacIntyre are the only three players on the list not to hoist a trophy in 2026. 

Doubting Scottie Scheffler at Augusta National feels like a bold move. (Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images)

Another trend impossible to ignore is that Masters winners have experience contending in major championships. Twenty-one of the last 27 Masters winners have either won, or finished runner-up in a major. Of the nine names above, Rahm, Scheffler, Young, Morikawa, Fitzpatrick, and MacIntyre fit the mold.

The list of trends to pay attention to can become endless depending on how deep you want to go into the rabbit hole, but players in extremely strong form who have been in major championship battles tend to be among the last players standing come Sunday afternoons at Augusta National.

Debutants Rolling Deep

We've seen a debutant finish runner-up in three of the last six Masters, but a debutant has not won the Masters since Fuzzy Zoeller earned a green jacket in 1979. 

This year's stable of debutants is about as deep as they come. Chris Gotterup is the lone multiple-winner on the PGA Tour this season and finished third at the 2025 Open. Ben Griffin is a three-time PGA Tour winner, Jacob Bridgeman won this year's Genesis Invitational and has another three Top 10 finishes to his name, Marco Penge is the reigning DP World Tour Player of the Year, and Casey Jarvis won back-to-back events on the DP World Tour earlier this season.

In total, eight debutants this week are ranked inside the Top 70 in the world.

Chris Gotterup's game checks a lot of Masters boxes. (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images)

Don't Doubt Scottie Scheffler

Sure, Scottie Scheffler has cooled off from a results standpoint, but it was also nearly impossible for him to get any hotter. The No. 1 player in the world is still doing *just about* everything at an elite level.

Scheffler began his 2026 campaign with a victory at The AmEx, followed that up with back-to-back Top 5 finishes at the Waste Management and at Pebble Beach, but his back-to-back finishes just outside of the Top 20 in his two most-recent starts has people questioning things.

The statistics, however, paint a rather clear answer: Scottie Scheffler is still doing World No. 1 things. Scheffler ranks third on Tour in strokes gained: total, 11th off the tee, 17th putting, and ninth in greens in regulation percentage. 

It's strictly the approach play that has people off of Scheffler's scent this week. He led the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach in 2023, 2024, and 2025, but is only a tick above PGA Tour average in approach play in 2026.

It's not if, but when, Scheffler gets the irons to cooperate. It may seem bullish to think he may find that form again at a place like Augusta National, but it's a better place than any given he's won two of the last four Masters.

Which Rory Are We Going To Get?

Not only will Rory McIlroy be playing the role of defending champion at this year's Masters, but he's also entering the week having dealt with back spasms just a few weeks ago. 

McIlroy was forced to withdraw from the Arnold Palmer Invitational the first week of March due to back issues. He managed to make the cut at The Players the following week despite not arriving at TPC Sawgrass until the day prior to the opening round.

Rory McIlroy has some questions to answer heading into the 2026 Masters. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)

Rory has only made four starts on the PGA Tour in 2026, and doesn't exactly have history on his side to go back-to-back at Augusta National. Only three times has a player successfully defended their Masters title, with Tiger Woods being the last to go back-to-back in 2001 and 2002.

Notes On The Others Guys

Bryson DeChambeau - A T-6 finish at the 2024 Masters, followed by a T-5 finish and Sunday final pairing a year ago. He's won each of the last two LIV Golf events, has two U.S. Opens to his name, and checks just about every statistical box. We'll see if the scar tissue has healed from having a front-row seat to McIlroy's victory at Augusta last year.

Xander Schauffele - Over the last seven Masters, Schauffele has finished T-10 or better five times. He's also entering the week off back-to-back Top 5 finishes on Tour, clearly getting more comfortable with his game in the new year every week he's teed it up. He may be the most-proven guy in the field who is getting overlooked the most. 

Tommy Fleetwood - Nobody would be surprised to see him get the job done, nor would anyone be surprised if he finished 42nd. His iron play has been great the past two weeks and should hit plenty of fairways to give himself chances to attack, but needs the putter to show up.

Tommy Fleetwood is, as always, on the radar for the 2026 Masters. (Photo by Prakash Singh/Getty Images)

Akshay Bhatia - The Arnold Palmer winner is among the most-popular trendy picks heading into the week. Lefties have had plenty of success at Augusta National, and Akshay's game seems to suit this place. Outside of a T-16 finish in the 2024 U.S. Open, his major championship resume is nothing to write home about, but two made cuts in his two Masters starts don't hurt anything.

Ludvig Aberg - The guy who does everything except win. For a guy who hasn't finished outside the Top 5 in each of his last three starts on Tour, nobody seems to believe in the Swede. It's one of those cases that until he gets it done, it's nearly impossible to imagine he does get it done on a big stage. He finished solo second in the 2024 Masters and seventh a year ago.

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