Juan Soto Trade Seems To Be A Near Certainty At Winter Meetings

Juan Soto trade rumors have been flying the past few weeks, and a new report from The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal says it's a matter of when, not if.

Just last week, another report said it was "probable" that Soto would be traded, noting that several interested teams had been circling.

READ: JUAN SOTO TRADE ‘PROBABLE’ ACCORDING TO NEW REPORT

Now Rosenthal's latest update puts some more logs on the trade fire, suggesting it's a near certainty that the San Diego Padres trade him to free up payroll around the upcoming winter meetings.

"Unlike Bregman and Bichette, Juan Soto is almost certain to be traded," Rosenthal writes. "Both to ease the Padres’ payroll burden and get them the pitching they desperately need."

He continues later, "The question is not whether Soto will be traded. The question is which team will acquire him." Assuming that's true, speculation immediately turns to which team will make a trade, and what it means for San Diego in 2024.

PHILADELPHIA - Juan Soto of the San Diego Padres runs the bases following a home run against the Philadelphia Phillies during the fourth inning in game five of the National League Championship Series at Citizens Bank Park on October 23, 2022. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Juan Soto Trade Could Mean Reset For San Diego

Padres President of Baseball Operations and General Manager A.J. Preller has a history of making unexpected, often franchise-altering trades. Some, like acquiring Fernando Tatis Jr. for James Shields, have been a massive success.

Others, like trading for Francisco Mejia, Matt Kemp, Adam Frazier and Austin Nola, have ranged from ineffective to actively harmful.

The deal to get Soto in the first place was hailed around the sport world as a masterstroke; while the Padres did give up considerable talent, they also had one of the game's best players for three playoff runs and an inside track to an extension. Instead, after advancing to the NLCS in 2022, the Padres were effectively eliminated by August in 2023, and have seen their financial picture darken with the collapse of Bally Sports and the death of owner Peter Seidler.

They desperately need pitching, with just Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish in the rotation for 2024, and $189 million committed in existing salaries already. Trading Soto for young, controllable pitching could make sense, even though it almost certainly would weaken the team's overall projections.

So who has young, controllable pitching, and the money to take on Soto's salary?

Well the Dodgers, for one. The Yankees have the money, but little young pitching to offer. Same with Boston. The Giants could be interested and have promising young lefty Kyle Harrison under team control. Houston always has young pitching, as do the Tampa Bay Rays.

All of these seem unlikely, for varying reasons. The Dodgers are likely the most natural fit, but would Preller really trade the team's best player to a division rival? The Yankees certainly covet Soto, but have one of the game's worst farm systems to pull from. Oddly, the Chicago Cubs may be the team that makes the most sense.

Close to a playoff berth in 2023, a deep system, young MLB-ready pitchers like Jordan Wicks, and plenty of money.

With the winter meetings starting December 4th, we won't have to speculate much longer.