Gerrit Cole Shows You Should Enjoy Pitchers While You Can

Gerrit Cole has been one of Major League Baseball's most durable starting pitchers since his debut in 2013. Cole made over 30 starts in 2021, 2022 and 2023. He made all 12 starts during the COVID-lockdown shortened 2020 season, and over 30 every season from 2017-2019. 

And now he needs Tommy John surgery. Welcome to the modern version of MLB. 

READ: Yankees Nightmare Comes True: Gerrit Cole Out For Year

The Cole injury reinforces some important lessons that teams and pitchers continue to learn. Namely, that the era of high velocity, high spin rates, max-effort-breaking balls is going to inevitably lead to increased injuries. No matter how big-bodied, strong, durable or well-trained pitchers are. 

Essentially, if Gerrit Cole can get hurt, anyone can get hurt.

New York Yankees superstar starting pitcher Gerrit Cole will miss the entirety of 2025 after undergoing season-ending Tommy John surgery. (Photo: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images)

Gerrit Cole Surgery Shows No One Is Safe

Cole is the posterchild for the modern pitching revolution. His fastball has averaged more than 96mph every season since his debut…until he suffered an arm injury in 2024 and "dropped" to 95.9. 

He peaked in 2021 and 2021 at 97.8, with a slider that averaged over 87mph with nearly 2600rpm's of spin. His slider velocity is around the average fastball from the late 1990's. Yet if any pitcher seemed built to handle it, it was Gerrit Cole. 

Standing 6'4 and 220 pounds, he had the prototypical pitcher build. And eventually, he broke anyway. This is what's coming for virtually every starting pitcher. And it's a real problem baseball will have to deal with.

The debate for organizations and pitchers boils down to how important it is for them to dominate with elite stuff, as opposed to staying healthy their entire careers. So far, they're choosing elite stuff.

Paul Skenes? He too has the prototypical pitcher build: 6'6 and 235 pounds. He too throws exceptionally hard, averaging 99mph on his fastball in 2024. 

And while we don't know when, it's a near certainty he'll have major arm surgery at some point in his career. This is the tradeoff: Skenes was almost unhittable in his debut, with a miniscule .193 expected batting average against, and a slugging percentage under .300. He made the average major league hitter look almost like a pitcher, while giving Pirates fans reason to hope for the future. 

Is it worth the injury risk?

The answer from both sides appears to be yes. There's no guarantee Skenes would stay healthy his entire career if he backed off the velocity, though it would be much more likely. But there is a guarantee that he'd be significantly less effective if he doesn't throw as hard. 

Basically, what we've learned over time is to enjoy your favorite pitcher while you can. It's not a question of if, but when. No matter how well-prepared they are, how good their training is, their build is, or their coaches. They will get hurt. 

Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, Spencer Strider…three of the top 10 pitchers in baseball, all forced to miss a season over the last two years. You see why the Dodgers signed a million pitchers, and why teams that don't plan ahead with depth struggle as the season wears on. It's an inevitability…until and unless something changes. Don't expect it to.