Dear UNLV Fans: Welcome To The Dan Mullen Experience

They say the best predictor of the future is past behavior, and Dan Mullen's debut as head coach of the UNLV football team is pretty much all the proof you need to believe that adage.

Let's start with the positives: Dan Mullen and the Rebels are 1-0 to start his tenure in Sin City.

Starting the season with a win is a great way to build some momentum and get the guys in the locker room believing in themselves and each other.

Now time for the bad news: The Rebels were favored by more than four touchdowns and ended up just squeaking by their undermatched FCS opponent, thanks in large part to the UNLV defense taking a very laissez-faire approach to their craft.

If only someone had seen this performance coming.

Oh, that's right! I did!

Earlier this month, I wrote an entire article about how Mullen's lazy approach to roster construction was just a microcosm of how he runs a program, and it turned out to be damn near prophetic.

Former five-star and top-100 recruits rarely hit the transfer portal because of a "bad culture fit" or a need for a change of scenery. They're in there more often than not because they might not have been all that great in the first place.

I know this is just one game, and I am trying not to overreact (maybe I should take some of my own advice occasionally), but having watched how Mullen operated for four years at Florida, I could see this coming a mile away.

His recruiting class rankings were buoyed by taking a bunch of non-qualifiers while in Gainesville, and every single class featured at least one of his highest-ranked recruits that cycle never making it to campus, while multiple other highly-ranked commits transferred out before the end of their first semester.

And on the subject of defense, don't expect that to get better anytime soon either, Rebels fans.

While he was the head coach of the Gators, Mullen's defenses steadily declined, culminating in a disastrous 2020 campaign in which the offense, led by quarterback Kyle Trask and first round draft picks Kadarius Toney and Kyle Pitts, put up historic numbers while the defense routinely gave up 30-plus points a game.

It is widely agreed that the 2020 Gators' defense, led by coordinator Todd Grantham, cost the team a shot at a playoff berth that season with their putrid play.

And guess who was on the headset calling the same busted defense in Mullen's final season as Gators head coach in 2021?

Change is a foreign concept to Dan Mullen.

His methods have gotten him this far, and he is who he is at this point.

Frustrations like last night will be plentiful, though you will get to see some fireworks on offense.

There will be some fun times ahead, but those fun times will often be marred by games that will make you want to pull your hair out.

I just thought it would be fair to any UNLV fans that read Outkick to warn them ahead of time about these sorts of things.

Welcome to the Dan Mullen experience. There's no getting off this train now.