New College Football Analytical Rankings Show SEC, Big Ten Dominance Over ACC, Big 12
Ohio State and Georgia, look to be two best teams in college football
Our long national nightmare is finally almost over: college football is a few weeks away. And that means it's officially time for one of sports' most time-honored traditions: debating the value and accuracy of preseason rankings.
The Coaches Poll is out, and the first Associated Press poll of the season drops on Monday. But what's more interesting than who voters – some of questionable quality – believe will be the best teams in the country, is what analytics-driven ranking systems believe are the best teams.
Why? Because that determines strength of schedule for the rest of the season, and provides opportunities to see which teams might be undervalued subjectively while being objectively talented.
One of the most commonly referenced analytical systems is FEI, which released its new preseason top-25 and win expectancy rankings recently. And it confirmed that the Big Ten and SEC are once again set to dominate the sport, as well as containing some of those aforementioned undervalued, and overvalued, teams.
Ohio State is the preseason favorite to win the Big Ten. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
Ohio State, Georgia Favorites To Advance Through Big Ten, SEC Gauntlet
Based on the preseason overall FEI ratings, which accounts for efficiency on offense, defense, and special teams, the Ohio State Buckeyes are once again viewed as the best team in the country. By a fairly wide margin.
Ohio State is so good, their median wins projection is for 11.1 wins, with a 40% chance that they go through a 12-game regular season undefeated. In fact, FEI gives the Buckeyes an 80% chance of finishing with 11 or 12 wins, and just a 4% chance of winning nine games. For most programs, nine wins is an accomplishment. For Ohio State, it's the worst-case scenario.
There are only two other teams with a greater than 10% chance of winning 12 games in the regular season: Notre Dame and Oregon. There's not even another team with a 40% chance of winning 11 games. Ohio State is really, really good.
Here's the full top-25, per FEI:
- Ohio State Buckeyes
- Georgia Bulldogs
- Oregon Ducks
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Alabama Crimson Tide
- Texas Longhorns
- Penn State Nittany Lions
- Ole Miss Rebels
- Michigan Wolverines
- Tennessee Volunteers
- LSU Tigers
- Clemson Tigers
- Texas A&M Aggies
- USC Trojans
- Indiana Hoosiers
- Oklahoma Sooners
- Kansas State Wildcats
- Louisville Cardinals
- Iowa Hawkeyes
- Florida Gators
- Minnesota Golden Gophers
- Iowa State Cyclones
- Miami Hurricanes
- South Carolina Gamecocks
- BYU Cougars
Marcus Freeman's Notre Dame team (No. 4) is the only one outside of the Big Ten and SEC that resides in the top 11 of the FEI preseason rankings. (Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
A few things immediately jump out: 11 of the top 12 are in the Big Ten and SEC, with only Notre Dame crashing the party. Thirteen of the top 15 are in the Big Ten and SEC, with Clemson at No. 12 the only ACC representative in the top 20. There's those two conferences, and then everybody else.
Then there are some teams that, at least according to the efficiency metrics, are likely to be underrated by human voters. Lincoln Riley's USC hasn't had much success with wins and losses in the last two seasons, but their underlying performance has been significantly better than their record would indicate. Losing 4–5 games with 95% win expectancy will do that.
It's reasonable for human voters to keep them out of the top-25. But by on-field efficiency, they're a top-15 team. The much-maligned Indiana Hoosiers, who received unfair and inaccurate criticisms after losing to Notre Dame in the Playoff last season, are also a top-15 caliber team. Minnesota at 21st is another surprising ranking.
On the flip side, Texas has been viewed as the potential top team overall, but sits just sixth in FEI. Thanks to a difficult schedule, the Longhorns' median win projection is just 9.3, with a better than 50% chance they win less than 10 games.
These metrics are based on preseason expectations, which will change as games are played. But, my goodness, both these conferences will be tough to get through.