Can Kyle Schwarber Beat Out Shohei Ohtani This Season?

It's almost a foregone conclusion, year after year, that Shohei Ohtani will win the MVP award. And for good reason.

Ohtani is historically valuable, in a way that virtually no other player can be. One of the top hitters in baseball, the first ever to hit more than 50 home runs and steal at least 50 bases in a season. Oh, and he's also a legitimate Cy Young candidate. In 2022, for example, Ohtani had a 2.33 ERA with 219 strikeouts in 166 innings. Those are Tarik Skubal-type numbers on the mound, with Aaron Judge-type talent at the plate. 

His 2025 season has been typically remarkable, even while returning to the mound for the first time in two seasons. While he's pitched just more than 32 innings as the Los Angeles Dodgers remain cautious with his arm, Ohtani's already struck out 44 hitters, with just seven walks. His ERA is over 4, thanks to an elevated, and unsustainable, batting average on balls in play, but his FIP, an advanced metric that attempts to control for bad luck, is just 2.25. 

Despite returning to pitching, Ohtani's offense has once again been elite. He's hit 45 home runs entering Friday, with a .387 on-base percentage and .608 slugging percentage. He's been 70 percent better than league average offensively, good for nearly six wins above replacement already.

Nearly six wins above replacement offensively, 1.3 wins above replacement as a pitcher – another MVP award for Ohtani is all but decided, right? 

Enter Kyle Schwarber, who almost singlehandedly led the Philadelphia Phillies to a dominant win.

PHILADELPHIA - Kyle Schwarber #12 of the Philadelphia Phillies celebrates after hitting a three-run home run in the seventh inning against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park on August 28, 2025. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)

Kyle Schwarber Continues To Roll Through MLB

Schwarber in 2025 is having the best offensive performance of his career, even in his age-32 season. That culminated in a remarkable four home run game on Thursday night against the Atlanta Braves.

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That gave him 49 home runs on the season, with 28 games left. A quick math check shows that he's on pace for 60, a number that hasn't been reached in the National League since Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa in the 2001 steroid era. He's been nearly 60 percent better than league average offensively, good for 4.9 wins above replacement, per Fangraphs.

And therein lies the issue. Even as good as he's been offensively, Schwarber's still well behind Ohtani. Just considering Ohtani's hitting. While the Dodgers aren't likely to push Ohtani on the mound, limiting his pitching value, he's still going to contribute likely 50+ innings of elite performance on the mound too. 

Not all MVP votes should be determined solely by WAR. But it's a testament to Ohtani's transcendence that Schwarber is on pace to hit 60 home runs and still come up well short. Does that mean he won't win MVP? No, not necessarily.

Reaching the 60 homer number could be enough of a historic feat to justify giving Schwarber the award over Ohtani. And voters might not value Ohtani's pitching contributions as highly this season, given his limited innings count. But just like the race for the two seed in the NL between the Phillies and Dodgers, the MVP discussion between their two stars is likely to come down to the wire.