2025 NCAA Tournament Breakdown: West Region Best Bets, Sleepers & Busts
The NCAA Tournament Bracket is set and, for many Americans, that means it's time to start making picks for March Madness bracket pools. In case you missed it, I wrote a general tips & tricks piece with advice for filling out your own bracket as you attempt to win your office pool.
For this series, we're going to go through each region and deliver an in-depth breakdown of each of the 16-team clusters, with some of my favorite picks and sleepers. We started with the East region, and now we turn our attention to the West region, which is headlined by the tournament's #4 overall seed, Florida.
Most Likely Final Four Team: #1 Florida Gators
I really hate picking chalk and I know you're reading this for sleepers, but the fact of the matter is – as I mentioned in the East breakdown – the #1 seeds this year are a lot better than the rest of the field.
That includes the Florida Gators, who were flying a bit under the radar prior to the SEC Tournament, but are now among the public darlings to win it all. Other than Duke, more people are picking the Gators than any other team, including the #1 overall seed, the Auburn Tigers.
The Florida Gators celebrate after defeating the Tennessee Volunteers in the 2025 SEC Championship Game at Bridgestone Arena.
(Steve Roberts/Imagn Images)
There's a reason for that, though: Florida is really damn good. According to KenPom, they are the second-best team in college basketball and rank in the Top 10 in both offense (#1) and defense (#10). Being good at both offense and defense is, like, pretty important in sports.
That all being said, the Selection Committee didn't do Florida any favors by giving them a potential Round of 32 matchup against the back-to-back National Champion UConn Huskies.
If Florida gets through that game, though, they shouldn't have a ton of trouble. In fact, UConn arguably presents a tougher test than Florida would see in the Sweet 16, no matter which team advances.
Sleeper Final Four Pick: #3 Texas Tech
If you want a team that no one is picking to reach the Final Four, take a look at the Red Raiders. According to TeamRankings, only 1 percent of public brackets have Texas Tech making it out of this region.
But the Raiders have a good draw. The only team rated higher in the region – Florida – is in the top half, which means Tech wouldn't see Florida until the Elite Eight.
Texas Tech is led by Big 12 Player of the Year JT Toppin.
(William Purnell/Imagn Images)
According to KenPom, the #2 seed in this region, St. John's should be switched with Tech – Tech should be a 2-seed and the Johnnies should be a 3-seed.
Missouri as a #6 could be tough, but the SEC is probably a little overrated this season. And Missouri's defense (73rd) is very exploitable for Texas Tech's dynamic offense.
Top 4 Seed Most Likely To Miss Sweet 16: #2 St. John's
I know this is going to upset my OutKick colleague and close friend, Geoff Clark, but I have to go with the Red Storm. Honestly, I think the top four seeds are going to advance to the Sweet 16 because this is one of the most top-heavy regions in the NCAA Tournament, but I have to pick a team because, well, that's the format I chose.
St. John's shouldn't have any trouble in the Round of 64, but will face either Kansas or Arkansas in the Round of 32 and both could be tough outs. While Kansas isn't its usual dominant self, the Jayhawks still rate as about a Top 20 team and are a little under-seeded. Plus, don't discount John Calipari and Arkansas, who are capable of playing excellent basketball.
Like I said, though, this was a tough region to pick in this section because #4 Maryland got a fantastic draw, getting Grand Canyon in the Round of 64 and the most over-seeded team in the entire tournament, #5 Memphis (which should have been an 8 or 9 seed), as a potential Round of 32 matchup.
First-Round Upset Alert: #12 Colorado State over #5 Memphis
So, this is a seed-based upset, but not really an upset pick. Why? Colorado State is FAVORED to beat Memphis. Seriously. How does the Selection Committee manage to put a #5 seed against a #12 seed where Vegas thinks that the higher seed is the better team? It's a miscarriage of justice, quite frankly.
#12 Colorado State is favored to beat #5 Memphis in the Round of 64 of the NCAA Tournament.
(Logan Newell/The Coloradoan / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
The good news, if you're reading this, is that the public doesn't actually realize this is the case. The majority of brackets have Memphis beating Colorado State, so you can gain an advantage by picking the lower-seeded team as a favorite.
As much as I want to pick #11 Drake to beat #6 Missouri, I just don't see it. If I HAD to pick an actual upset in the first round of this region, that's where I'd go, but I believe Missouri advances to face Texas Tech in what could be an absolute shootout.
Player To Watch: JT Toppin, Texas Tech
The younger brother of NBA player, Obi Toppin, JT spent one year with the New Mexico Lobos before transferring to Texas Tech. The decision has paid off, with Toppin dominating during the Big 12 regular season, winning both the conference's Player of the Year and Newcomer of the Year.
He's averaging 18.1 points and 9.2 rebounds, and he's a FORCE inside the paint. Having a guy like that on the interior is a huge advantage for Tech and a big reason why I like Tech as a sleeper team to emerge from this region.