2025 NCAA Tournament Breakdown: East Region Best Bets, Sleepers & Busts
The NCAA Tournament Bracket is set and, for many Americans, that means it's time to start making picks for March Madness bracket pools. In case you missed it, I wrote a general tips & tricks piece with advice for filling out your own bracket as you attempt to win your office pool.
For this series, we're going to go through each region and deliver an in-depth breakdown of each of the 16-team clusters, with some of my favorite picks and sleepers. And we're starting with the East region, headlined by the betting favorite to cut down the nets, the Duke Blue Devils.
Most Likely Final Four Team: #1 Duke Blue Devils
I'd love to pick another team here, but the fact is that this year has a loaded tournament at the top. The #1 seeds are among the strongest group of #1s (relative to the field) as we've seen in a long time, and Duke is the best of the bunch.
The health of Cooper Flagg is something to watch, but Duke showed during the ACC Tournament that they can survive a game or two without their star freshman.
The Duke Blue Devils won the ACC Tournament and are favored to win the NCAA Tournament.
(Jim Dedmon/Imagn Images)
Not only is Duke clearly the best team in the tournament and the best team in this region, they got arguably the best draw of any #1 seed. The other three top seeds are likely to face a strong #8 seed in the Round of 32, but Duke drew the best options there (#8 Mississippi State or #9 Baylor). #5 Oregon and #4 Arizona aren't huge threats in the Sweet 16, either.
Add it all up, and the path is just too easy for Duke, who figures to reach the Final Four without too much trouble.
Sleeper Final Four Pick: #6 BYU Cougars
Look, Duke is probably reaching the Final Four, so there isn't a ton of value in the rest of the region. If you're looking to take a big swing on a massive flier, BYU is a team to consider.
They live-and-die on the three-point shot, which is both good and bad for the NCAA Tournament. It means they could get hot and go on a Cinderella run to the Elite Eight or Final Four, but it also means they could go cold and lose in the Round of 64 to #11 VCU and make this pick look really dumb.
BYU is the ultimate boom-or-bust team in this year's NCAA Tournament.
(William Purnell/Imagn Images)
Still, #2 Alabama has some injury issues (Grant Nelson didn't play in the second half of the SEC semifinals against Florida and Mark Sears was seen limping throughout the match), and #3 Wisconsin just isn't very good, so there's some possibility for the Cougars to make some noise at the bottom of the bracket.
Top 4 Seed Most Likely To Miss Sweet 16: #3 Wisconsin
Based on my previous analysis, you could probably see where this was going. I think Wisconsin got a favorable seeding getting to the three line when they probably deserved a four-seed. While I expect the Badgers to get past Montana in the Round of 64 with relative ease, they will have trouble with either BYU or VCU in the Round of 32.
I'm not a big fan of #4 Arizona, either, but they got a good draw for the first two rounds. Akron shouldn't pose much of a threat to the Wildcats and Oregon is over-seeded as a #5. While I don't think the Wildcats are going to have a chance against Duke in the Sweet 16, I think they have an easy path to get there, so I'm not fading them until the second weekend.
First-Round Upset Alert: #12 Liberty over #5 Oregon
It's the classic upset for a reason, right? As mentioned, Oregon is over-seeded in the NCAA Tournament, projecting as more of a 7 or 8 seed than as a 5. Liberty isn't great, but they are playing some good basketball right now.
The Flames have won 11 of 12 entering the tournament, and they posted some good wins early in the season over Kansas State and McNeese State.
The Ducks do have a big advantage with this game being played in Spokane at 10 p.m. ET, since Liberty has to travel across the country and play a very late game. But Oregon played a Big Ten schedule for the first time, so they might be feeling their own jet lag after a long season.
Player To Watch: Cooper Flagg, Duke
Was there ever any doubt? The best player in the country is going to have all eyes on him throughout the NCAA Tournament, which figures to be a lengthy run for the heavily-favored Blue Devils.
Cooper Flagg leads the NCAA Tournament-favorite Duke Blue Devils.
(Bob Donnan/Imagn Images)
Of course, Flagg suffered what appeared to be a serious ankle injury during the ACC Tournament, but by all accounts the school expects him to play in the NCAA Tournament.
The question is when? Does Duke opt to sit Flagg for a Round of 64 game where they almost certainly don't need him? They could, but if he's healthy enough to play, he should play.
Remember that Flagg is a freshman, so these are his first NCAA Tournament games. Head coach Jon Scheyer doesn't want to see his star get his first taste of the tournament in a big spot. Better to ease him in the early rounds so he's ready to go for the stretch run.