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Let’s keep the perfect 5-0 roll going with our Sunday selections based on injury analysis that has us at a 19-11 record thru six weeks.
It is not realistic to go 5-0 every week (also started hot 5-0 out of the gate in Week 1) but the key is to stay on the right side of the hidden and cluster injuries that provide unforeseen line advantages. Don’t use all of this analysis at www.profootballdoc.com as tout picks but rather a data point to make your own wagering/DFS/fantasy plays.
We concentrate on the games with double-digit SIC score advantages. As a football guy, I tend to stick to sides but the numbers this week show some offensive and defensive mismatches that may give advantages on totals. We are 18-9 on sides this season and only 1-2 on totals but this week there are two totals in play.
SIC Score is our proprietary numerical injury grading system that incorporates the health of every NFL team and individual players to give sports bettors, DFS players and fantasy owners an edge each week during the season. While it purposely doesn’t take into account coaching, schemes or matchups, SIC Scores give an accurate assessment of team/player overall health heading into a game.
CINCINNATI +6.5 @ BALTIMORE
The Bengals are the healthier side overall by as SIC score differential of 16.6 and they trend healthier on offense with Joe Burrow’s knee progressing nicely as we expected off ACL (remember when some said he should/could miss 2021 entirely?) as we head towards mid-season and he is position is completely “green” for first time. Also the running backs are healthy now with Joe Mixon back fully from mild high ankle sprain and Samaje Perine off COVID list.
Cincinnati has only one starter injured on both sides and has been able to compensate. The defensive injury is to the #1 CB but the Ravens #1 WR is also out. Baltimore is hot with five straight wins but they are down their top 4 running backs and the high paid left tackle is having another ankle surgery. With three top defensive starters out, Baltimore’s health is trending the wrong way.
CAROLINA @ N.Y. GIANTS under 42.5
The combine offensive health of both teams has an average SIC score differential of 20. The Giants entire left side of the offensive line is out and with depth issues as well as their start RB and the vast majority of pass catchers with medical issues, including potential regression of Evan Engram’s calf. The Panthers still have their best weapon Christian McCaffrey on IR and are short their left tackle and guard. Both defenses are relatively healthy given this part of the season. The numbers don’t seem to show that both teams can score in the 20s.
N.Y. JETS @ NEW ENGLAND over 42.5
Last time they met, the Jets rookie QB was confused and only put up six points. This time may be a different story. The offenses post a combined SIC score differential of 18.5, The Patriots offense is 15.5 point healthier while their defense dips by 14.2 points on the SIC scale. Over half the Jets defensive starters are out including the entire linebacker corp. Key run stopper C.J. Mosley is out with a hamstring. Look for New England to take advantage and the Jets to have more success this time around putting up points.
GREEN BAY -8.5 vs WASHINGTON
Washington has their top five offensive weapons affected by injury and seven total, leading to their low “red” SIC score. Green Bay has its own issues with three starters down on each side of the ball. The Packers top two corners are injured, but not sure the Football Team can take advantage. The big three of the Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones and Davante Adams are all good to go. Washington may have a hard time keeping up.
L.A. RAMS -15.5 vs DETROIT
In the battle of teams with the quarterback swamps, the two sides are headed different directions and that goes for injuries as well. The Rams are cruising with a 5-1 record and are also the much healthier side by 14.6 of the SIC score scale. Ever starter on both sides of the ball are good to go except for RB Cam Akers with before season Achilles tear.
Meanwhile, the Lions continue to be the only winless team with multiple injuries. The biggest are the O line issues against Aaron Donald and a stout D line as well as two of the top three corners out where the Rams pass catchers might dominate. The Rams are laying three scores but the injury analysis is what it is.
KANSAS CITY -4 @ TENNESSEE
The Titans won a big game Monday night but the Chiefs seem to have the advantage here. The key is with Tennessee missing CB 2 and 3 as well as pass rush threats down, that is a tall order against the Kansas City weapons. The Titans will also miss Taylor Lewan out with concussion and despite Julio Jones saying he is fine, we have our doubts. This game only has a single digit health differential, but the Chiefs are on the rise.
INDIANAPOLIS+4.5 @ SAN FRANCISCO UNDER 42.5
Both starting quarterbacks are healthy but the offenses around them are not. Jimmy Garoppolo is near full go and Carson Wentz is finally fully healthy for his foot and ankle issue. The 49ers still have RB issues and the TE is still out plus the key loss at left tackle this week. The Colts just got back T.Y. Hilton but he is out as well as Parris Campbell. They have continued O line issues but the return of right guard Quentin Nelson will help. The numbers lean to the under given an average differential of 13.1 but we lean toward the Colts +4.5 on the road.
Check out the field views and SIC scores of all the game and individual fantasy players at www.profootballdoc.com before making your own decisions.