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Let’s try to repeat last Sunday’s 5-0 against the spread using injury advantages. Even though our Monday Night Raiders pick was correct for 6-0, we aren’t counting that as we are trying to match how some of the big Vegas contests do it.
Another good week and it would be a great start towards besting last season’s documented +20 effort (50-30-5). Here is what the injury analysis points us to this week. Use this information as a tool to make or strengthen your own decisions.
PHI +3 (vs SF)
This is one of the stronger plays with the Eagles getting a field goal at home with the West Coast team playing the “10am” game. Philadelphia is definitely the healthier side looking at the “color” on the above Field View and the SICscores. The 49ers rank almost 20 points lower and have dropped about 10 points in health on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. The main mismatch is with the Eagles offensive overall being 30 points healthier. Use the hover feature to see the individual player analysis.
LAR -3.5 (at IND)
Other than Cam Akers, the Rams for the most part are healthy. The Colts have significant offensive issues beyond T.Y. Hilton being out. An area of traditional strength for Indianapolis is a weakness this week with three out of the five offensive line starters with issues while they face the pressure of Aaron Donald and company. Add to that three of four Colts secondary starters dealing with health issues, the Rams seem poised to cruise by more than 3.5 points.
NE -6 (@NYJ)
In this battle of rookie first round quarterbacks, the Patriots line is creeping up. A quick look at the above Field View tells you why. Six Jets defensive starters are dealing with injury issues which should give Mac Jones a better chance than Zach Wilson facing a creative Bill Belichick defense even with Stephon Gilmore and Kyle Van Noy out. Even without Trent Brown, New England’s offense is 30+ points healthier than the Jets defense.
LAC -3 (vs DAL)
Dallas is without pass rushers Demarcus Lawrence and Randall Gregory. In fact, they are missing three out of four defensive line starters. Add to that the issues on the right side of their offensive line and you can see why the Chargers have an almost 20 point SIC score advantage in the home debut in their new shared stadium. We get that the Cowboys may have a good team that took the Buccaneers to their limit but they have health issues that should tip the scales in the Bolts favor.
KC -3.5 (at BAL)
For the Sunday night game, the Chiefs have the biggest health differential of the day with over a 20 point difference over the Ravens. With running back, offensive line and cornerback issues, Baltimore is also at a disadvantage as they essentially pull an “all-nighter” where they likely didn’t get home from their Monday night West Coast overtime game until late morning on Tuesday. This makes for a recovery day on leaves them an even shorter week to prepare. Yes, kickoff isn’t until 8:20pm local time but that doesn’t provide more rest. In my NFL experience no players can sleep in on Sunday morning. They all get up due to excitement and end up burning energy all day long before the late game. Overall, the health advantage is clearly to Kansas City here.
Honorable mentions are Arizona -3.5 at home against Minnesota and Carolina +3.5 at home against New Orleans. Go to www.profootballdoc.com and see all the injury analysis to assist in all your wagering/DFS/fantasy decisions. Good luck and let’s enjoy a great day of football.