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Week 13 five Sunday injury based picks will try to continue the winning ways. Using health advantages, the publicly vetted record against the spread is 37-19-4 through 12 weeks. Thursday’s easy win for the Bills doesn’t count since we didn’t specify that lean as a ProFootballDoc: Key NFL QB And RB Injury Issues And Big AFC East Showdown
Look at the Field View and individual player SIC scores at Sports Injury” target=”_blank” rel=”noreferrer noopener”>weekly selection.
Now, here is what the injury algorithm says this week.
DEN @ BAL -9.5
All season we have been fading the Ravens and winning. Finally the tables flip. The Broncos are the more injured side by 23 points. Denver has three of five offensive linemen, two of top three wide receivers and the #1 running back out on an offense that has not produced. Defensively, if you add in the Bradley Chubb trade, there is only one original starting linebacker. Baltimore is on the upswing in health. We are not worried about Lamar Jackson and his quad. It’s a big number, but expect the Ravens to win and cover based on relative health
WAS -2 @ NYG
The Giants have done well this season but they are depleted in both pass catchers and pass coverage. New York’s wide receiver issues are well documented but they will miss three of four secondary starters and have back ups hampered as well. Evan Neal back at right tackle will help but that may not be enough. This sets up as a favorable matchup for the Commanders pass offense and pass defense.
TEN @ PHI over 44
Both offenses are healthier than the opposing defenses. Each side has three key defensive starters out. The Eagles hope to shore up their run defense with Jordan Davis returning but have a tough matchup in Derrick Henry. Offensively, Philly is healthy except for Dallas Goedert. Expect some points to be scored.
SEA -7 @ LAR
The defending Super Bowl champions have eight losses and are all but mathematically eliminated. Los Angeles will be without their starting QB, the RB room is in upheaval, the top two WRs are out and 80% of the starting offensive line has injury issues. Defensively, there’s no Aaron Donald and several other starters are also out. Meanwhile, the Seahawks only miss starters Jamal Adams and Rashaad Penny (Kenneth Walker has stepped in). Even on the road and laying seven, Seattle is almost twenty SIC score points healthier and seems to be the right side.
LAC @ LVR -2.5
The Raiders have been lackluster but the Chargers up front are lacking due to injury. The best three offensive linemen are out and they are short handed on the defensive line. Their top corner and top edge rusher are also out as well as Mike Williams. The Raiders will miss Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow but still seem to be the healthier side.
GB -3.5 is the right side with both QBs playing thru while the Bears defense has it worse.
MIN -3 should be able to cover vs Mike White
HOU +8 at home against DeShaun Watson who has not played meaningful football in two years.
DET -1 is trending in the right direction.
KC -2.5 is the healthier side and wants revenge from last season.
Good luck and let’s see if we can push the season win total above 20 units.