ProFootballDoc: NFL Week 3 Actionable Health Issues
Too bad we don't count Thursday's analysis https://www.outkick.com/profootballdoc-another-thursday-division-rivalry-game/ or we would have a 11-3 record. Using injury analysis the PIT vs CLE division rivalry did hit the over in the total, Diontae Johnson yards, Najee Harris yards and Nick Chubb yards. The 7-3 record https://www.outkick.com/profootballdoc-injury-analysis-for-monday-night-nfl-double-header/ is still quite respectable and let's see if we can improve with the weekly Sunday five picks against the spread like for the Circa or SuperBook contests.
Whether you follow along or do your own analysis, team health matters and the field views and SIC scores should help OutKick readers to be better at fantasy, DFS and wagering.
I know it seems crazy to pick against the Buffalo right now but that is what the injury analysis indicates. One look at the Bills defense on their Field View tells the story. They crushed the Titans on Monday night but at a significant injury cost. They will travel to the heat of Miami on a short week and miss five defensive starters including both safeties, two top corners and even Ed Oliver's back up is injured. Last week, Tua, Tyreek and Waddle capitalized on a weakened Ravens secondary in a record 4th quarter and this week they start the contest with that clear advantage. Earlier the line was 5.5 but a one point drop is not enough to cover the injury issues.
New England is mostly healthy and Baltimore remains injury plagued. Yes, J.K. Dobbins seems poised to return but don't see how he will be at 100% or make a big difference. The Ravens continue with cornerback health issues that led to the 4ht quarter collapse last week. The top three are all dealing with health issues. With key left tackle Ronnie Stanley and his back up out, Baltimore is down to third string there. Lamar Jackson's elbow will be fine but as long as Belichick contains his running, the Patriots should be poised to cover but we clearly would prefer the +3 indicated early week but we live with Sat night lines.
Chicago has the biggest SIC score drop of the week going down by 13.2 points defensively. Two linebackers and two corners are dealing with injury issues and this list includes key starter Roquan Smith who did not practice all week with a hip issue. The offensive line has had a shuffle with health issues too. Meanwhile the Texans are fairly injury free. This may not be the most exciting game but take the points here.
Tom Brady's injured finger is the least of his worries. Seven offensive starters are out or with issues including the entire left side of the offensive line and all three top receivers. The Bucs signed Cole Beasley and he will get his targets. Akeem Hicks is out for Tampa as well. Meanwhile, the Packers get healthier and both starting tackles might play. Yes, Sammy Watkins is on IR but Allen Lazard is close to full health. Aaron Rodgers has the advantage in this showdown of top QBs.
On news that Justin Herbert might not play the line plummeted from 7 to 3. In my career at as a NFL head team physician, rib cartilage injuries meant practice was hard but games were at full go with an intercostal rib block. I have done this procedure about two dozen times on Philip Rivers in the locker room during pregame to play (permission granted so no HIPAA violation). This type of injection got a bad name with the Tyrod Taylor lung incident by has been safely and routinely performed across the league over the years. The Chargers should be able to do the same today so that would give four points of value in this play.
Honorable Mentions
The Eagles are healthier than Washington. The Bengals offensive line troubles match up well against health issues on the Jets defensive line. The Vikings have a favorable health match up as well. Check out Sports Injury Central for the live interactive Field Views and visit SIC Picks for our best bets based on SIC Score algorithms and Injury analysis.
Enjoy Week 3 and best of luck in you wagering, DFS and fantasy endeavours.