Circa Million IV NFL Week 3 Picks

Another 3-2 performance in Week 2 of the Circa Million IV effectively eliminates me from winning the $150,000 quarterly prize. My Geoffrow Records entry is tied for 1,045th place out of 4,691 entries. But, obviously can still make some money in this racket.

  • Buccaneers at SAINTS +2.5❌
  • DOLPHINS +3.5 at Ravens✅
  • Panthers at GIANTS -2✅
  • Bills at TITANS +10❌
  • Vikings at EAGLES -2.5✅

Circa NFL Week 3 Picks

  • Listed by order of confidence. First is most confident, fifth is least.
  1. JAGUARS +7 at Chargers
  2. Falcons at SEAHAWKS Pick ‘Em
  3. TEXANS +2.5 at Bears
  4. RAVENS -2.5 at Patriots
  5. Eagles at WASHINGTON +6.5

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 at Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers QB Justin Herbert is helped off the field by the medical staff after being hit during the 4th quarter against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

I already handicapped this game earlier this week, bet the Jaguars +7 and have great line value at the time of publishing. Concerns for Chargers QB Justin Herbert‘s health caused L.A.’s spread to drop from -7 to the current number of -3 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

This will most certainly be the most picked game of Week 3 in the contest in favor the Jaguars. But, Circa released its Week 3 contest line for Jaguars-Chargers with the L.A. laying 7 points. And that’s where it’ll stay since the contest lines are locked in.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks Pick ‘Em

Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll at Lumen Field in Seattle. (Jane Gershovich/Getty Images)

As you may have read earlier this week, I’m on the Seahawks to bounce back from a loss like they usually do under head coach Pete Carroll.

The betting market is all over the Falcons as well. I’ll happily take the Seahawks in Seattle with the coaching edge while fading the public.

Houston Texans +2.5 at Chicago Bears

Texans QB Davis Mills communicates at the line of scrimmage during the 2nd quarter against the Indianapolis Colts at NRG Stadium in Houston. (Bob Levey/Getty Images)

Texans QB Davis Mills may be a starting NFL quarterback whereas Bears QB Justin Fields doesn’t look like one. Mills ranks ahead of Fields in QBR, DVOA and Pro Football Focus (PFF).

Or maybe Fields’ supporting cast is that bad. The Bears lack any game-breakers at the skill positions. Also, Chicago’s offensive line ranks last in pressure rate allowed by both Pro Football Reference and PFF.

Read more analysis here but essentially the Bears shouldn’t be a favorite over anyone in the NFL and I’ll grab the points with the Texans.

Baltimore Ravens -2.5 at New England Patriots

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson takes the field before a game against the Miami Dolphins at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore. (Patrick Smith/Getty Images)

What would this line be if the Ravens held on to beat the Dolphins and win by double digits like they were on track to do? It wouldn’t this low that’s for sure.

The bottom line for my Ravens-Patriots handicap is Baltimore has a far better roster than New England and Bill Belichick’s coach edge over John Harbaugh isn’t big enough to make up for that.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Commanders +6.5

Washington QB Carson Wentz at FedExField in Landover, Maryland. (Rob Carr/Getty Images)

This is my lowest confidence pick for a reason. That reason is how good Philly’s rushing attack has looked through two weeks. The Eagles and QB Jalen Hurts are second in rushing yards per game and trampled the Detroit Lions in Week 1 and Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football in Week 2.

But, the Eagles haven’t played well for a full game. They tried to give away their victory last week over the Vikings. Philly scored 0 second-half points and turned the ball over on its side of the field.

More than 80% of the money is on Philly at DraftKings Sportsbook, per VSIN. Yet the oddsmakers aren’t pushing Eagles-Commanders to -7 or more. It seems like the sportsbooks are comfortable taking more pro-Eagles money. I’ll ride with the House for my final Week 3 contest selection.

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Written by Geoff Clark

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