Videos by OutKick
Only three picks this Sunday as have already took two Week 15 picks. The under Thursday paid off and the Bills -7 Saturday was looking good until the roughing the punter penalty and Devin Singletary going purposely going down short of the goal line prevented the push, thus 1-1 so far this week. This has the overall record to 42-26-4 (+16) against the spread using health advantages.
Here are what the algorithm says for the remaining three plays plus some honorable mentions.
KC -14 @ HOU
Laying two touchdowns on the road is never fun but the injury analysis warrants this. Whenever a team has a SIC score differential of greater than 15 points over the opponent, blindly taking them against the spread has a 73% win percentage. The Chiefs are 18 SIC score points healthier versus the Texans. Kansas City is essentially healthy on both sides of the ball. Houston is without their top three offensive weapons in top running back Dameon Pierce and their top two wide receivers. Meanwhile defensively, they are missing four starters including their top two corners and have to face Patrick Mahomes. Enough said.
ARI @ DEN under 36.5
One can nickname this the “Injury Bowl”. Both teams are wrecked and thus already eliminated from playoff contention. Technically, Arizona is not mathematically eliminated but on “Hard Knocks,” their head coach is already talking about pride and good film rather than having a chance. Denver has placed a league high 19 players on injured reserve. Neither team has their starting quarterback nor the majority of their offensive lines. The total is very low and taking the under is not a fun root, but the offenses are 20 and 15 points less healthy than the opposing defense and that is significant.
More NFL Week 15 Injury Notes
TEN @ LAC over 46.5
We pointed out the Titans defensive injury woes last week in taking the Jaguars who scored 36 points and won by two touchdowns in Tennessee. This week the opponent Chargers also have defensive health issues. Both offenses are about 20 points healthier than the defenses. The Titans are missing over half their defensive starters and the Chargers miss their best player at each level of the defense and have cluster injuries in the trenches as well. Time for Derrick Henry and Justin Herbert to feast.
Honorable mentions on a short slate include the Bengals -3.5 on the road over the Bucs and the Eagles -8.5 should roll over the Bears who have been eliminated. The rest of the Field Views and SIC scores are all at Sports Injury Central.