ProFootballDoc: NFL Week 12 Injury Advantages For A Winning Sunday

Week 12 brings lots of quarterback changes but injuries are still a big deal. Using team health as the primary driver for line advantages the five weekly picks are +15 against the spread for a 33-18-4 record.

The biggest question mark is whether the Bears allow Justin Fields to play with an injection. Physically it would be ok to do so and he would be effective taking contact on the run but it seems that Chicago will be content to get the better draft pick. Even with Fields likely out, with the change to Mike White it offsets any potential advantages.

Here are the five health based picks of the day.

DEN @ CAR +1.5

Carolina is going back to Sam Darnold and has lots of uncertainty with an interim head coach but healt favors the Panthers by a whooping 23.1 points. Denver has O line issues, WR issues, LB issues and a rough season in general. Both teams have not been good this year and have only three wins. However, the Panthers are clearly the healthier side offensively and defensively. This is our biggest injury advantage of the day. The line started at CAR +3.5 and is now only 1.5 but even at this late line, there seems to be good value on the home team.

BAL @ JAC +3.5

Certainly it makes us nervous to pick the 3-7 team against the 7-3 team but that is factored into the lines whereas health is not always the case. The Ravens continue to win but have often not covered like last week. The Jaguars are among the healthier clubs this season. Admittedly, Baltimore is getting better but missing three top offensive weapons and your left tackle this week does not bode well.

LAR @ KC -15.5

The line is huge but the SIC score differential is over ten points bigger. The Rams are down to their third string QB and without their top offensive weapon in WR Cooper Kupp but their biggest issue is that 4/5ths of the offensive line are injured and some of those spots are down to third stringers. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are as healthy as can be defensively and return JuJu Smith-Schuster off concussion. Stranger things have happened but this has the earmark of a big blowout.

SF @ NO over 43

The 49ers are slightly the healthier squad and on a roll but both offenses are healthier than the defense they face. San Francisco is poised to rack up points with so many weapons. However, the Saints are at home on a fast field and will contribute to the scoring even though they are nine point underdogs.

GB @ PHI -6.5

Aaron Rodgers thumb injury is seven weeks old and should be essentially behind him but his offensive line issues from his bookend tackles are not. The Packers will also miss three defensive starters. The Eagles are healthy for the most part other than TE Dallas Goedert. If Philadelphia can get a lead, that puts more pressure on the Packers OL and young WRs when chasing.

Honorable mentions include:

Atlanta +4

Tennessee +1.5

Houston +14

Chargers -3

San Franciso -9

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