ProFootballDoc: Injury Based Plays +11 At Halfway Mark of NFL Season

Using injury analysis to find hidden line advantages as resulted in a 26-15-4 record against the spread. Let’s see if the second half of the season can double that to +22 with the five weekly Sunday picks

Three big QB in/outs this week. We still have our Josh Allen elbow concerns but he is reported to be playing while Matt Stafford and Kyler Murray seem dubious.

DEN @ TEN -2.5

The Titans have their own health issues but return Ryan Tannenhill this week. Even with coming off the bye, the Broncos have major players missing. Missing three starting offensive linemen and two key pass rushers (one to injury and the other to trade) and a team that barely saved their coaches job with a tight will in London means trouble.

MIN +6.5 @ BUF

Josh Allen is the biggest story of the week. We remain surprised that the Bills would chance it with his UCL sprain. You can’t win a Super Bowl in November, but you sure can lose one if you get your MVP caliber QB injured. Despite word that he will play and start, it still seems wise to protect him. The Bills have secondary issues and even if they can dominate, the Vikings are poised to back door cover with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen catching passes.

NO @ PIT +1.5

The Steelers are at home coming off a bye and the Saints travel on a short week after losing by two touchdowns at home. Although Pittsburgh will miss Minkah Fitzpatrick due to acute appendicitis, they return T.J. Watt. New Orleans has key injury issues on both sides of the ball. With Michael Thomas in IR, they miss two key offensive lineman and two key cornerbacks. Take the home underdog here.

DAL -4 @ GB

The Packers had just gotten on the verge of being healthy but that changed with their being among the biggest SIC score drops of the week. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are rested coming off their bye. Green Bay lost three key players last week and had several others hampered as well as we indicated from the Command Center on Sunday.

ARI @ LAR under 40

We get a bad line here but still like the under. Earlier in the week at Sports Injury Central we liked this at under 42.5 when we had suspicions that both Matt Stafford and Kyler Murray might not play. The main reason for the under isn’t even the back up QBs likely to start but the injuries to both offensive lines.

Honorable Mentions are plentiful this week with five. Consider Detroit +3 versus a Chicago team that traded away their best two defensive players and gave up 35 points last week. Las Vegas -4.5 seems to be the right side despite roster changes as Indianapolis seems rudderless. Kansas City under 51.5 with a healthy defense and a more controlled time killing offense. Texans at Giants under 41.5 with two good running backs chewing clock. Chargers at 49ers under 45.5 with both teams likely to focus on the run.

Lots of tempting plays this week and hard to settle on the best five. Good luck in Week 10.

Written by Dr. David Chao

David Chao, MD -- known digitally as Pro Football Doc -- is an expert contributor for Outkick. Chao spent 17 seasons as the team doctor for the San Diego Chargers (1997-2013) and is part of the medical team at OASIS in San Diego where he treats and specializes in orthopedic sports injuries, working with high-profile professional athletes from the NFL, NBA, and MLB.

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