NFL Betting Picks For Week 11 From Analyst On 24-8 Run

Last week, I started finally posting the picks that I was giving out on the OutKick Bets podcast. My NFL betting picks were 21-7 to that point, so I naturally assumed everything would come crashing down.

But, we had another winning week on Sunday. Here’s a recap of our Week 10 action:

New York Giants -4 over Houston Texans
Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 over New Orleans Saints
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears Over 48.5
Dallas Cowboys -4.5 over Green Bay Packers

We were closing in on an undefeated week with the Cowboys leading by 14 points in the second half. Unfortunately for us, the Packers offense decided to show up for the first time this season. Oh well, that’s gambling.

Let’s take a look at some Week 11 NFL Betting Picks…

New York Giants -3 over Detroit Lions AND Over 45 points

I don’t usually like double-dipping on a side and a total with NFL betting picks, but I really can’t resist here. As I wrote last week, “Perhaps bookmakers just don’t believe in the Giants – and that certainly seems to be the case, like when we won taking the Giants as underdogs against Jacksonville in Week 7 – but they might need to start. New York is 6-2 against-the-spread this season. They are tied for the best cover percentage (75%) in the NFL with Tennessee and Dallas.”

Well, we took the Giants last week and I see no reason to get off the train. They’re now 7-2 ATS and second in the NFL with a 78% cover percentage. Only Tennessee, which won and covered on Thursday Night to move to 80%, is better.

So, here we go again. Facing one of the NFL’s worst teams — at home, no less, and the Giants are just three-point favorites. Factoring in home-field advantage, that means Vegas believes the Giants and Lions are basically equal. That’s just false.

EPA per play is one of the best numerical measures to justify overall offense and defense. The Giants have the 7th best offense in the NFL and their defense sits just outside the Top 20. Meanwhile, the Lions have just a league-average offense and the NFL’s worst defense. New York is a full two tiers above Detroit, yet they’re seen as even. It really makes no sense.

That leads right into the Over play. The Lions defense is the worst in the league and the Giants defense is below-average. And the Giants offense is sneaky-good. The two downsides to this play are potential weather and a run-heavy approach by both offenses.

First, although it’s going to be VERY COLD in New York on Sunday, that doesn’t really hurt offenses. What does is wind. While there is a chance that gusts will reach into 20mph, they should sit in the 8-12mph range, which shouldn’t impact the game heavily.

As far as a run-heavy approach, that would be expected. Detroit allows 161 yards per game on the ground, which is second worst in the NFL (Houston), and the Giants allow 133 yards rushing, which ranks 9th worst. But that doesn’t necessarily take the Over out of play; last week, Detroit and Chicago had 66 rush attempts vs. 46 pass attempts and the teams combined to score 61 points.

Both Saquon Barkley and D’Andre Swift have the ability to break big plays and we only need a couple to hit the 45-point total. This is a battle between a heavy Over team (Detroit 6-3 to the Over) against a heavy Under team (Giants 7-2 to the Under).

We 're making the Giants and the Over one of our NFL betting picks in Week 11 and expect to see Saquon Barkley in the endzone.
We ‘re making the Giants and the Over one of our NFL betting picks in Week 11 and expect to see Saquon Barkley in the endzone. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

I think this is the week the Giants offense finally starts cashing in points. They’ve put themselves in position to score but are only scoring touchdowns on 53% of redzone drives, which is 20th in the league. The Lions, conversely, allow opponents to score TDs on 64% of red-zone drives (7th worst). This is the week the Giants punch in a couple more from in tight.

Houston Texans +3 over Washington Commanders

We took a bad team last week (Pittsburgh) as a home underdog and it was terrifying. But the analysis was sound and we won that bet. We’re going back to the well, this time with a worse team. As you saw in the previous graphic, Houston is in a tier all to itself — they have a bottom-five offense and a bottom-five defense.

So why are we picking them? This is really more of a fade of the Commanders. Washington is two tiers above Houston but they’re coming off their biggest win of the season and are now on a short week. They knocked off the undefeated Eagles in Philadelphia and have to get back on the road to travel to Houston to play a team that they know they’re better than.

Plus, Washington is an average NFL team. They’ve been much better with Taylor Heinicke under center than Carson Wentz, but their offense is still well-below average. Prior to dropping 32 points against the Eagles, Washington had only scored 20+ points once in their previous seven games. This shapes up as a low-scoring affair and we’re getting the key number of three points. Let’s plug our noses, shut our eyes, cover our ears and take the points.

Buffalo Bills vs. Cleveland Browns Over 49.5 points

All of the hubbub about this game has been about the weather in Buffalo forcing the contest to be moved to Ford Field in Detroit. But once you get past that, you end up with two of the league’s more prolific offenses — it’s true, Cleveland has a Top 10 offense according to EPA/play — against one of the worst defenses in the NFL (Cleveland) and a very banged up Bills defense.

Buffalo’s defense has been one of the league’s best (ranked third) but their injury report is a big-time problem for this one. CB Tre’Davious White, LB Tremaine Edmonds and DE Greg Rousseau will all miss this contest meaning the Bills will be missing a key defender from all three levels. Plus, S Jordan Poyer is listed as questionable. He is likely to play but clearly not at 100%.

The Bills are a heavy Under team (7-2 to the Under this season) but are coming off a 63-point shootout against Minnesota in a tough wind in Buffalo. Now they’ll play a dome game against a Cleveland team that favors high-scoring games (6-2-1 to the Over, highest percentage in the NFL). The Browns gave up 39 points last week to the Miami Dolphins and you can expect the Bills to put up some numbers as well.

This total should be over 50 points, so we’ll take the value here. According to VSIN, the public is hammering the Under (69% of the bets) while the bigger money is coming in on the Over (49% of the handle). That means we’re on the sharp side here. The public is usually all about taking the Over so when you see a public Under, you should head the other way. That’s what we’re doing here.


Follow Dan Zaksheske on Twitter: @OutkickDanZ

Written by Dan Zaksheske

Dan began his sports media career at ESPN, where he survived for nearly a decade. Once the Stockholm Syndrome cleared, he made his way to Outkick. He is secure enough in his masculinity to admit he is a cat-enthusiast with three cats, one of which is named “Brady” because his wife wishes she were married to Tom instead of him.

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