Four NFL Betting Picks For Week 10 From Analyst On 21-7 Run

I always promised myself that if I ever got into doing NFL betting picks, I’d never be one of those guys who talks about his record. Mostly, because I assumed it would be bad.

But I’ve been a guest on the OutKick Bets podcast five times this season and have so far compiled a 21-7 record across NFL spread, total and player prop bets. One them was a ridiculous 10-1 anytime touchdown scorer on Saints tight end Adam Trautman — who has one TD this season.

I say all of this because I’m sure it’s all going to come crashing down around me — probably soon — and I want to bask in the warm glow for as long as possible. I dare any of you to say you wouldn’t be milking that victory lap for all of its worth if you hit 75% on NFL betting picks on nearly 30 bets!

OK, you probably are skipping all this to get to the betting picks anyways. That’s good because I really talked myself up. Let’s get to it.

I gave these bets out on the podcast this week and all odds courtesy of DraftKings SportsBook at time of recording that podcast (Thursday afternoon).

New York Giants -4 over Houston Texans

This is a really odd line. Perhaps bookmakers just don’t believe in the Giants – and that certainly seems to be the case, like when we won taking the Giants as underdogs against Jacksonville in Week 7 – but they might need to start. New York is 6-2 against-the-spread this season. They are tied for the best cover percentage (75%) in the NFL with Tennessee and Dallas.

Quite honestly, this feels like a trap line. But that’s exactly what I said when I got them at +3 against Jacksonville and they won outright. And here, we’re getting the Giants AT HOME as just four-point favorites over arguably the NFL’s worst team. According to EPA per play, Houston IS the worst team in the NFL. They are bottom five in offense and bottom six in defense.

The Giants, meanwhile, have a Top 10 offense according to EPA/play and are about middle of the pack on defense, albeit slightly below the NFL average. Still we’re getting a team that sits a full three tiers above the team they’re playing while giving up just four points. That’s insane.

Not only that, but the Giants are coming into this game off their bye, giving them two weeks to prepare for the NFL’s fourth-worst offense. And, it’s not a lookahead spot, either; the Giants play the Detroit Lions at home next week. THAT will be a lookahead spot as New York will then travel on a short week to play Dallas on Thanksgiving Day for a massive game that will help shape the NFC playoff picture.

Saquon Barkley and the Giants are fresh off their bye and ready to help you win some money on NFL betting picks.
Saquon Barkley and the Giants are fresh off their bye and ready to help you win some money on NFL betting picks. (Photo by Courtney Culbreath/Getty Images)

I think the Giants are exact opposite of the Jaguars. The Jaguars stink, but analytics loves them. The Giants are actually good, and analytics hate them.

Despite all of that quality analysis, this line opened at Giants -7 and somehow is down to -4. I can’t find anything to support this movement. Nothing stands out on the Giants injury report, other than 2022 #7 overall pick tackle Evan Neal being unlikely to play. I can’t imagine an offensive tackle being worth that kind of line movement, plus we knew he was likely out when the line was set.

And, according to VSIN, the handle is on the Giants as well. There is no money pushing this line, as of now. So why the movement? I can only suspect that Houston is a “fake sharp” play here. Take the Giants, lay the points, and enjoy the free money.

Dallas Cowboys -4.5 over Green Bay Packers

At some point we have to acknowledge that fading the Dallas Cowboys is an extremely bad idea. Let’s look at this team against the spread in recent history. First of all, they’re 22-7 against the spread in their past 29 games. That’s #1 in the NFL over that span. They failed to cover in Week 1 this year in a disastrous loss against Tampa, but since then have gone 6-1 against the number.

Additionally, most teams struggle as road favorites, the situation the Cowboys find themselves in this week. Not Dallas, though: they have covered five straight as road favorites since the beginning of last season. What about road games in general? Glad you asked. Dallas is a ridiculous 10-2 against the spread on the road since the start of last season.

Dallas is a strong team that covers the spread at a ridiculously high rate facing a — let’s face it — bad Packers team that has been terrible against the number this season (3-6 ATS).

Fading Aaron Rodgers and the Packers has been a moneymaking endeavor for those making NFL betting picks.
Fading Aaron Rodgers and the Packers has been a moneymaking endeavor for those making NFL betting picks. (Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

We could go into a deeper analysis about how the Cowboys have one of the best defenses in the NFL (they do) and the Packers offense is completely broken (it is) but there really is no need to do that. Dallas is good both on the actual football field and at the cashier’s window and Green Bay is bad at both. Lay the points with Dallas.

Pittsburgh Steelers +1.5 Over New Orleans Saints

This is definitely the scariest bet of the week for me. The Steelers are not a good football team. They rank in the second-to-last tier according to EPA/play and have a well-below-average offense and defense.

The Saints, meanwhile, are exactly average. Like, literally. According to the graphic put out by Ben Baldwin on Twitter (above), the Saints sit exactly where the lines meet for NFL average for both offense and defense. That seemingly gives them a huge advantage here.

But here’s the thing: history favors Pittsburgh. The Steelers are coming off of their bye week and are 3-1 ATS the past four seasons off the bye. Mike Tomlin, easily a Top 5 NFL coach, has had two weeks to prepare for the Saints and Andy Dalton. Dalton, in his career, is 4-12 ATS facing Pittsburgh. So, yeah, Tomlin owns Dalton and he’s had two weeks to prep. The Saints, meanwhile, are coming in off a short week after playing on Monday Night Football.

Andy Dalton has been historically bad against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Andy Dalton has been historically bad against the Pittsburgh Steelers. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Also, New Orleans has been sneaky bad against the spread this season. They are 3-6 ATS through nine weeks – same as their actual record – which is tied with several teams for the third-worst cover percentage in the NFL — including the aforementioned Packers. Only the Rams (2-5-1 ATS) and Bucs (2-6-1 ATS) have been worse. The Steelers, despite being 2-6 on the season, are actually only slightly below .500 against the number at 3-4-1.

Oh, and TJ Watt is expected to return, albeit on a snap count, in this contest. Not only is that a big on-field lift, even if he’s limited, it’s a big morale boost for a team that desperately needs one.

I don’t love backing a rookie QB in Kenny Pickett who has a 2-8 TD-INT ratio this season, but I like that he’s coming off a bye. An extra week traditionally helps rookies, especially quarterbacks.

Backing a struggling rookie QB in NFL betting picks is scary, but this a good spot for Kenny Pickett and the Steelers.
Backing a struggling rookie QB in NFL betting picks is scary, but this a good spot for Kenny Pickett and the Steelers. (Photo by John Jones/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Also, this is a Saints defense that has allowed at least 27 points in five of the last six games. That includes 42 points allowed to the broken Arizona Cardinals offense. The only outlier was a shutout against the Raiders, which is the only thing keeping their points per game allowed slightly in check.

One final note: the Steelers have been unbelievably dominant as home underdogs under Mike Tomlin. In fact, they haven’t failed to cover in this situation since 2017! Tomlin’s Steelers are 7-0-2 ATS during that stretch. Tomlin in his career is 13-3-4 against-the-spread as a home dog.

The Saints, meanwhile, have been road favorites twice this season. They failed to cover in either of those contests, including an outright loss to lowly Carolina. Grab the 1.5 points, plug your nose, close your eyes, cover your ears and place the bet.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears Over 48.5

This line is suspiciously low, but I’m happy to jump all over it for my final NFL betting pick of the week. While games in the NFL have been going Under at a regular clip – just eight NFL teams have more Overs than Unders on the season – you can count on these two teams to score.

And, you can count on them to not play defense. Of those eight teams who have more Overs than Unders, 25% comprise this matchup. Detroit is 5-3 to the Over, tied for the second-highest Over percentage in the league with Philadelphia and only trailing Cleveland (5-2-1).

Chicago is 5-4 to the Over, which doesn’t seem all that impressive, but remember NFL games are going Under at a high rate. While there are only eight teams with more Overs than Under, there are 19 who have more Unders. Five teams sit at 50-50.

Bears QB Justin Fields has been good of late, even against good NFL defenses. Now he gets to face the Lions ... a bad NFL defense.
Bears QB Justin Fields has been good of late, even against good NFL defenses. Now he gets to face the Lions … a bad NFL defense. (Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

Because games are going Under so frequently, I think this line is a little deflated. Both teams are +3.5 to the Over this season and neither plays strong defense. Statistically, according to EPA/play, Detroit actually has the league’s worst defense – and it’s not particularly close. Chicago is in the bottom five.

Perhaps the line is influenced by the Lions low-scoring win last week over Green Bay (15-9). But remember that total was dragged down by not one, but two Aaron Rodgers interceptions in goal-to-go situations. Not only that, but the Lions failed on a fourth-and-one from inside the Packers 10-yard line.

Rodgers actually threw a third pick in Detroit territory – the 22-yard line to be exact – that cost them even more points. There were easily 21-28 points left on the table by fluky plays, so I think we can basically throw that game out.

Prior to the Green Bay game, the Lions and Dolphins played to a 58-point total. That gives us some context, too, because the Bears played the Dolphins last week and those teams dropped a whopping 67 points combined.

As much as it pains me to admit it, Justin Fields has been a lot better of late. The past three games, the Bears have scored 33, 29 and 32 points. And two of the defenses they faced – New England and Dallas – are Top 4 defenses in the NFL. Chicago should have no trouble scoring in this one, and Detroit really shouldn’t either. This line being under 50 feels wrong, so we’ll take the value on the high side. 

Follow Dan Zaksheske on Twitter: @OutkickDanZ

Written by Dan Zaksheske

Dan began his sports media career at ESPN, where he survived for nearly a decade. Once the Stockholm Syndrome cleared, he made his way to Outkick. He is secure enough in his masculinity to admit he is a cat-enthusiast with three cats, one of which is named “Brady” because his wife wishes she were married to Tom instead of him.

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