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Nebraska coach Scott Frost should be shockingly optimistic about his future in Lincoln.
There might not be another coach in America on a seat hotter than Frost, and after a 15-29 record through four seasons with the Cornhuskers, there’s no question 2022 is his final shot to get things turned around. After all, Nebraska was in every game they lost last year and eight of their nine losses came by a single possession.
There’s one number college football fans need to know, and that number is $7.5 million. That’s what Frost’s buyout is if the Cornhuskers pull the trigger on firing him after October 1.
More or less, that will be the day we learn a lot about his future. With a cheap buyout, Nebraska could can him October 2, and get a huge jump on the coaching search.
However, Frost might be breathing easy because he’s actually set up for some success this season.
For the sake of argument, let’s reasonably assume Nebraska needs to go 7-5 with a bowl bid for Frost to keep his job.
Despite his previous failures in Lincoln, that’s a very doable record in 2022, especially with Casey Thompson now QB1 for the Cornhuskers.
From the start of the season this Saturday through October 1, the Cornhuskers play Northwestern, North Dakota, Georgia Southern, Oklahoma and Indiana.
The Cornhuskers will be favored in every one of those games, minus their home matchup against the Sooners. That means when the sun comes up on October 2, Scott Frost and his team will likely be 4-1.
From there, it’s all about Frost finding three more wins in his seven remaining games.
The next three games for Nebraska are Rutgers and Purdue on the road and Illinois at home. As shocking as this might sound, by the time Scott Frost plays Minnesota November 5, the Cornhuskers could be 7-1.
Once the game against Minnesota rolls around, I expect the wheels to more or less fall off but there’s not enough time left to do any significant damage.
Nebraska closes out the year with Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa. At best, Nebraska will be favored to win one of those games – most likely Minnesota.
If this all plays out as I’ve projected, Nebraska finishes 7-5 or 8-4 with an interesting bowl matchup, especially if they get to eight wins.
Outside of something shocking happening, Nebraska isn’t going to fire Frost if he gets to seven regular season wins. It’s just not going to happen.
So, while it might be fun to joke about Nebraska, once you actually look at the schedule and the road in front of them, it’s more likely than not Frost is still in Lincoln in 2023.