NBA Gambling Trifecta For Tuesday, February 28 Includes Bucks
When the NBA set the schedule during the preseason this Tuesday slate had a ton of potential. But, injuries have reduced the excitement for several of these games.
Below, I handicap and give my bets for the Milwaukee Bucks visiting the Brooklyn Nets, Dallas Mavericks hosting the Indiana Pacers, and the Sacramento Kings at the Oklahoma City Thunder.
BUYER BEWARE: We are in the NBA's "load management" era. It might be best to wait until the final injury reports are released before placing a bet.
CHARLES BARKLEY RIPS NBA LOAD MANAGEMENT PROBLEM: ‘PEOPLE WORKING IN THE STEEL MILL ARE TIRED TOO’
Milwaukee Bucks (43-17) at Brooklyn Nets (34-26), 7:30 p.m. ET
The Bucks are on a warpath, winning 14 consecutive games and the only argument for them dropping this game is "Milwaukee cannot win 'every' game."
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been upgraded to "probable" on the injury report and was playing at an MVP-level before getting injured on Feb. 16th.
In 11 games from Jan. 23 to Feb. 14, Giannis averaged 37.2 points per game (PPG) on 58.4% shooting with 13.4 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and a +12.3 +/-.
Giannis Antetokounmpo pushes the ball up the court vs. the Portland Trail Blazers at the Moda Center in Portland, Oregon. (Alika Jenner/Getty Images)
Milwaukee is 29-16-3 against the spread (ATS) as favorites this season, 10-5-2 ATS as road favorites and 4-2-1 ATS as road favorites of -6 or more.
I don't have any other betting analysis other than backing the red-hot Bucks over the newly formed Nets with no continuity.
NBA Best Bet #1: Bucks -6.5 (-110), up to -7
Sacramento Kings (35-25) at Oklahoma City Thunder (28-32), 8 p.m. ET
From an organizational perspective, I'm not convinced the Thunder are still trying to win games. I don't think coaches or players tank but teams do.
Last year, post-All-Star break, OKC was 6-18 overall with the 2nd-worst net rating in the NBA. The Thunder have lost all three since the All-Star game this season and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's (SGA) status is sketchy AF.
SGA played 40 minutes in OKC's 1st game back from the All-Star break, which was a 120-119 overtime loss at the Utah Jazz. He didn't show any signs of injury and has missed the Thunder's past two games.
This includes the front end of their back-to-back with the Kings, which OKC lost 124-115 Sunday. SGA was ruled out last night but Thunder beat writers thought there was a chance he could still play.
After reading seeing this earlier in the morning, my initial look in this game was OKC plus the points. Sacramento was -4 Sunday in OKC and opened at -2.5 for this game without any new information.
I.e. the Kings being just -2.5 while Thunder beat writers suggested SGA could play seemed suspicious. However, after walking my dog and drinking my morning coffee, I returned to find this on Twitter ...
SGA is the 1st OKC player this season to be entered into the health and safety protocols. Maybe I'm being a conspiracy theorist but I'm calling "bullshit". This feels like the Thunder activating "tank mode".
The Kings are 9-5 ATS this season as road favorites and 10-3 ATS on the road vs. teams with a losing record. Sactown still has a shot at the 2-seed out West and OKC is trying to catch the 20-win Hornets for a shot at the 1st pick.
NBA Best Bet #2: Kings -3 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, up to -4
Indiana Pacers (27-35) at Dallas Mavericks (32-30), 8:30 p.m. ET
Neither team is good at defense but Indiana has a much better shot quality, per CleaningTheGlass.com. The Pacers has a better offensive and defensive wide-open 3-point-attempt rate than the Mavs too.
I have a problem backing Dallas as a -6 favorite or higher. The Mavericks are a jump-shooting team that cannot get any stops and struggles to close out games.
Furthermore, Dallas is 5-10-1 ATS as home favorites of -6 or more while Indiana is 7-4 ATS as +6 or more as road underdogs.
Pacers guards Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield celebrate after a big bucket vs. the Boston Celtics at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. (Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
According to Pregame.com, more than 90% of the money is on the Mavericks in the consensus betting market at the time of writing.
People are betting Dallas because it held a 27-point lead over the Lakers Sunday. There's an expectation that if the Mavs can jump out to a big lead they'll be able to hold off a bad defensive team in the Pacers.
But, Indy has two elite 3-point shooters and its coach, Rick Carlisle, was Dallas's coach from 2008-21 and knows a thing or two about how Luka Doncic operates.
Between Carlisle's familiarity with Luka, Dallas's awful defense and Indiana's superior shot selection, gimme the Pacers plus the points.
NBA Best Bet #3: Pacers +9 (-110), down to +8
You can listen to the audio versions of these handicaps on my NBA Hoops At Lunch show on the OutKick Bets Podcast feed Monday-Friday.