Thoughts on 2024 Presidential Election Odds

Paddy Power, owned by FanDuel's parent company Flutter in the UK, released the following odds for the 2024 presidential election:

Kamala Harris, in theory, is correctly ranked No. 2. Whomever President Joe Biden, 78, answers to, could tell him to step aside and let Harris run in 2024. That's possible. However, Harris' run would end there. She's not winning in 2024.

Harris' staff doesn't like her. A poll this week said Harris is the least popular vice president since the 1970s. Remember, the Democrats pushed Harris in the primary against Biden and others. Yet Harris performed so poorly that she dropped out of the race in Dec. 2019. Harris didn't have any support then, doesn't have any now, and won't have any in 2024.

Biden doesn't like Harris either. She called him a racist, remember? Harris is vice president because Democrats told Biden to pick her. Biden obeyed, but American voters won't.

Second, I disagree with my long-time friend Ryan Glasspiegel that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis should be at 6-1, even ahead of Trump.

As long as the media doesn't successfully manufacture a scandal surrounding DeSantis -- both MSNBC and 60 Minutes have tried -- he will remain a strong candidate. That said, I lean on the side that the gap between DeSantis and Trump should be wider than 7-1 to 12-1, as Paddy Power has it.

But will Trump run in 2024?

Bill O'Reilly said on the No Spin News last month he expects Trump to run. Because of their upcoming joint history tour, O'Reilly spent time one-on-one, off-camera with Trump in July. O'Reilly is not citing second-hand information. O'Reilly is as connected to Trump as anyone in the media, save for maybe Sean Hannity.

Translation: Trump, right now, plans to run in 2024. And if he does, Trump could walk to the nomination.

While there's an argument to be made that DeSantis would perform better than Trump in a general election, Trump has a significant built-in advantage among Republican voters. Trump has the power to turn his base against any GOP candidate who challenges him. A Republican candidate cannot win the nomination without the support of Trump's base.

In the rare column in the New York Times that is actually worth a read, Ross Douthat puts it best:

"Limits on power, however, are not the same things as limits on his support. The rule in the Trump era is that you can oppose Trump indirectly or win without his endorsement — but save for a few unusual cases, you can't challenge him personally and expect to have Republican voters on your side."

You can’t challenge him personally and expect to have Republican voters on your side -- that is correct. 

Now, if Trump doesn't run in 2024, polling data suggests Republican voters would favor DeSantis today. In a straw poll in Orlando, based on a hypothetical primary nomination showdown that didn't include Trump, DeSantis led the pack with 43% support. South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem finished second at 11%.

Based on those numbers, Noem at 40-1 is a solid long-shot bet. 

Nikki Haley, meanwhile, is a different story. Paddy Power puts Haley at 12-1, equal with DeSantis. Trump wouldn't need to turn his base against Haley -- they are already there. Haley damaged her chances in 2024 the moment she torched Trump in February.

Moreover, in past elections, a Republican candidate could not win a primary or general election without the support of Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity. Tucker Carlson is now the most influential media voice on the Right. It's not close. Haley does not have Carlson's support and isn't winning the nomination without it.

Finally, how did that kook Eric Swalwell make the list at 40-1? I can't think of a worse choice.