Jaguars Will Maul Broncos In Their Annual 'Tea And Crumpets' Game
Set alarm clocks early for Week 8's London game between the Denver Broncos (2-5) and Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) at Wembley Stadium with kickoff scheduled for 9:30 a.m. ET.
Jacksonville lost last week at home 23-17 to the New York Giants as 3-point favorites. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence had a so-so game, completing just 51.1% of his passes with 0 TD, 0 INT, and a 41.5 QBR.
Jaguars RB Travis Etienne rushed for 114 yards on 14 carries with 1 TD but had a critical fumble while running toward the goal line. Etienne's production recently led to Jacksonville trading RB James Robinson earlier this week to the New York Jets.
The Broncos lost to the Jets 16-9 at home last weekend with backup QB Brett Rypien replacing a maligned, but injured, Russell Wilson.
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Denver had 11 more 1st downs than the NY, possessed the ball for nearly five minutes longer, converted two more 3rd-down attempts, and had seven fewer penalties. Yet still lost. Wilson's status for Week 8 is "doubtful" with a partially torn hamstring and a shoulder injury (allegedly).
The Jaguars are the right side here because their organization is familiar with the London routine, the Broncos are injured and this is a buy-low spot for Jacksonville.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
Jacksonville's 'home away from home'
This will be Jacksonville's 9th London trip in the last 10 years, only missing 2020 due to COVID. The Jaguars are 4-4 straight up (SU) and ATS in London. A winless Jaguars team beat the Miami Dolphins 23-20 in Jacksonville's Week 6 London game last season.
Also, Jaguars 1st-year head coach Doug Pederson beat Jacksonville in London 24-18 while coaching the Philadelphia Eagles in 2018.
The bottom line is the London trip adds variables to the coaching job that Broncos 1st-year coach Nathaniel Hackett can't handle. Hackett has been an abject disaster thus far and Denver's mounting injuries only exacerbate that.
The Broncos' injury report
Not only will Wilson most likely miss Week 8 but the Broncos will be without three other starters in RB Javonte Williams, LB Baron Browning, and LT Cam Fleming.
The Williams injury happened weeks ago but it's still important because it forces Denver to use more of RB Melvin Gordon. Gordon is Pro Football Focus's (PFF) 60th-ranked RB out of 61 graded backs.
Browning is an above-average starting LB and Fleming is the 16th-ranked tackle out of 76 graded tackles, according to PFF.
Jacksonville's spread might not seem cheap but it is given Denver's injury report and the Broncos' poor efficiency.
Jaguars' buy-low spot
Jacksonville is much better than its record indicates. The Jaguars rank sixth in both net expected points added per play (EPA/play) and net success rate. They are +10 in 1st-down differential and the Broncos are -7 in 1st-down differential.
Furthermore, Jacksonville is on a 4-game losing streak (0-4 ATS) and has lost five consecutive games as an outright favorite dating back to 2020.
The Jaguars outgained two of their four opponents during this losing skid, held a double-digit lead over the Eagles in Week 4, and lost back-to-back coin-flip games in Weeks 6 and 7.
Denver on the other hand ranks 13th in net EPA/play, 22nd in net success rate, and has pulled defeat out of the jaws of victory numerous times.
Despite their lowlights, the Broncos have been competitive in most games this season. However, Denver's loss last week effectively ends its chances to win the division and the Broncos will roll over Sunday.