If These MLB Bets Lose Friday, I’m Retiring

Do you know how you’re not supposed to talk to a starter while he is in the middle of a no-hitter? I’m applying the same rule to myself when it comes to gambling on MLB.

After running my stupid piehole about a 2-0 performance Monday, I immediately dropped those two units, and then some, Tuesday. I’ll have to figure out another way to insinuate I’m winning bets.

Anyhow, I’m going to drop a few bets on Friday’s MLB card since there’s only one NBA playoff game to bet and it’s not football season yet. Below are my looks for the Brewers-Rays,

MLB Friday Fun

• Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Milwaukee Brewers (24-19) at Tampa Bay Rays (32-13)

• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET.
• Ballpark: Tropicana Field.

The Brewers visit the Rays Friday for the start of their 3-game interleague set. Tampa has cooled off a bit from its hot start: The Rays are 4-6 over the last 10. While the Brew Crew are 6-4 over the last 10.

McClanahan’s best rest split by K/BB rate, WHIP, and HR/9 rate is five days, which is how long he’s had since his last start. The Rays are 3-1 run line (RL) at home when McClanahan starts with a +2.8 RL margin.

Milwaukee’s lineup cannot hit lefties. Per FanGraphs, the Brewers rank 28th in wRC+ (76), 29th in wOBA (.285), 23rd in ISO (.142), and 25th in BB/K rate (0.28) against left-handed pitching.

The opposite is true about the Rays against righties. They lead MLB in wRC+ (136), wOBA (.362), and ISO (.228), and 2nd in hard-hit rate (35.9%) vs. right-handed pitching.

Even though Tampa’s got a massive edge in the starting pitching matchup, I’d rather bet the Rays on the full-game RL instead of the 1st 5-Inning RL since the Brew Crew’s relief pitching is shaky.

For instance, Milwaukee’s bullpen ranks 29th in FIP (“fielding independent pitching”) at 4.90, 27th in WAR at -0.1, 28th in HR/9 at 1.44, and 26th in hard-hit rate at 33.2%, according to FanGraphs.

MLB ‘Lock’ #1: Rays -1.5 (-115) RL

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Minnesota Twins (24-20) at Los Angeles Angels (23-22)

• First pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET.
• Ballpark: Angel Stadium of Anaheim.

The Twinkies send out their ace, RHP Joe Ryan (6-1, 2.16 ERA) for the series opener with the Angels Friday. While the Halos counter with winless lefty, Reid Detmers (0-3, 4.89 ERA).

First of all, the 1st-place Twins being just -125 with Ryan who’s made six consecutive quality starts is suspicious. Most pro sports bettors push back on the idea of “trap lines”. But, these odds say Minnesota isn’t much better than LAA.

However, the market is betting the Twins like the Angels stand no chance Friday. Per VSIN, roughly 70% of the action at DraftKings is on Minnesota’s moneyline (ML) as of 11:15 a.m. ET Friday.

Furthermore, the Twins struggle vs. lefties and the Angels are above average vs. righties. According to FanGraphs, LAA’s lineup ranks 11th in both wRC+ (105) and ISO (.167), and 10th in wOBA (.326) against right-handed pitching.

Minnesota’s lineup on the other hand ranks 26th in wRC+ (84), 28th in wOBA (.292), and 27th in BB/K rate (0.27), per FanGraphs.

The Angels have better relief pitching and that’s the most important factor betting angle in baseball. LAA’s bullpen is 4th in both FIP and WAR, 2nd in HR/9 rate, and 13th in K-BB%. All of those rankings are higher than the Twins’.

MLB ‘Lock’ #2: Angels moneyline (+105)

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