MLB 'Locks' For Monday Include 2 Slight Favorites: Mariners, Dodgers
Now that summer is right around the corner, I'm going to spend a lot more time gambling on MLB. I'm following baseball still but have been lighting my money on fire while betting on the NBA playoffs.
The goal Monday is to rob Peter (MLB) to pay Paul (NBA Playoffs and 2023 PGA Championship). Through the 2nd week of May, my MLB betting record is at 25-24 with a -0.5% return on investment (ROI).
MLB Monday Action
Seattle Mariners (20-20) at Boston Red Sox (22-19), 7:10 p.m. ET
Betting odds for Mariners-Red Sox Monday in the MLB as of 11:30 a.m. ET Monday, May 15th from DraftKings.
Seattle has won six of the past 10 games and took two of three at the Detroit Tigers this past weekend. Boston was swept at home this weekend in a 3-game series by the St. Louis Cardinals.
On Monday, the Mariners trot out starting RHP George Kirby. Kirby has four straight "quality starts," is 4-1 in those outings and his only loss was an 8-inning gem where he allowed just 1 ER.
I’ve bet on Seattle a lot over the past two-plus years and like Kirby. According to Statcast, Kirby ranks in the 82nd percentile or better in EV and hard-hit, barrel, chase, and BB rates.
Seattle Mariners starter George Kirby throws against the Texas Rangers during the 3rd inning at T-Mobile Park. (Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, the Mariners are 8-1 as road favorites when Kirby gets the start. Seattle has a +4.6 margin of victory (MoV) and +44.1% ROI in those contests.
Moreover, Seattle’s bullpen leads MLB in FIP ("fielding independent pitching"), HR/9 rate, and WAR while Boston’s bullpen is roughly league average in these metrics, per FanGraphs.
Also, the Mariners appear to be the sharp side in this matchup. DraftKings is reporting via VSIN the betting action in Mariners-Red Sox is split with slightly more tickets and money on Boston.
But, this game opened with both teams priced at -110 and Seattle is now a slight favorite. This is because the sharper offshore sportsbooks are taking pro-Mariners bets and legalized U.S. 'books are copying their line movement.
Let's follow the money and ...
MLB Best Bet #1: Mariners (-120) moneyline, up to -140
Minnesota Twins (23-18) at Los Angeles Dodgers (26-15), 10:10 p.m. ET
Betting Odds for Twins-Dodgers Monday in the MLB as of 11:30 a.m. ET Monday, May 15th from DraftKings.
First of all, the Dodgers are 10-2 as home favorites vs. righty starters with a +3.7 MoV and a +30.8% ROI. While Minnesota is 1-5 as road ‘dogs against righty starters with a -1.2 MoV and -63.3% ROI.
LAD's starter Monday, RHP Noah Syndergaard, has better pitching peripherals in 34 plate appearances (PA) vs. Minnesota's lineup than Twins RHP Pablo Lopez's 74 PA vs. LAD's order.
According to Statcast, Syndergaard has a 23.5% K-rate, .247/.260/.356 expected slash line with an 82.3 mph exit velocity (EV). Lopez has a .271/.333/.435 expected slash line with a 88 mph EV.
Per Pregame.com, the public is almost split on this game but there is much more money on the Dodgers. This makes sense because Lopez was a free-agency splash for the Twins this offseason and has better numbers so far. Whereas Syndergaard was signed on a 1-year flyer and has a 6.12 ERA.
Dodgers starting RHP Noah Syndergaard throws a pitch during the 3rd inning against the St. Louis Cardinals at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. (Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)
Syndergaard pitches much better at home albeit in a small sample size. He has a .258 BA at home (.409 BA on the road), 3.47 home ERA (13.00 road ERA), and a .382 slugging percentage (.727 slugging percentage on the road).
Plus, LAD’s lineup out-ranks Minnesota’s vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (119-98), wOBA (.345-.312), ISO (.219-175), BB/K rate (0.51-0.38), and hard-hit rate (33.3-32.7%), per FanGraphs.
Lastly, the Dodgers’ bullpen is better by FIP, WAR, left-on-base rate, and K-BB%, according to FanGraphs.