Geoff Clark
Videos by OutKick
I did a little John Wick Double Tap by cashing my two MLB bets Monday with the LA Dodgers and Seattle Mariners both handling business. Let’s run it back Tuesday in MLB.
However, I’m going a little outside of my comfort zone with these bets. Instead of doing what I usually do (pick sides), I’m going to bet the favorite’s run line in Brewers-Cardinals and the Under in Cubs-Astros.
MLB Tuesday Tilts
Milwaukee Brewers (23-16) at St. Louis Cardinals (17-25), 7:45 p.m. ET
- Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
After a terrible start to the season, the Cardinals are starting to round into form. The Cardinals are 7-3 over their last 10 games and have won four straight including the series opener vs. the Brew Crew.
Milwaukee gives LHP Wade Miley (3-2, 3.60 ERA) the nod Tuesday, and St. Louis counters with LHP Jordan Montgomery (2-5, 4.11 ERA). Miley’s basic numbers are certainly better but I have faith that Montgomery will turn it around this year.
Montgomery’s 3.50 FIP (“fielding independent pitching”) is lower than his ERA whereas Miley’s 4.48 FIP is higher than his ERA. Professional MLB handicappers use FIP more than ERA because it’s a better reflection of a pitcher’s true form.
Per Statcast, Montgomery’s K% is much higher vs. Milwaukee’s current lineup than Miley’s vs. St. Louis (33.7-14.2%). His opposing batting average and wOBA are more than 100 percentage points better vs. the Brewers than Miley vs. the Cardinals.
Furthermore, the Brew Crew’s lineup is awful vs. left-handed pitching. They rank dead last in both wRC+ and wOBA, 25th in BB/K rate, and 26th in ISO, according to FanGraphs.
Finally, the Cardinals’ relief pitching is more reliable. St. Louis’s bullpen ranks 7th in FIP, 8th in both K-BB% and HR/9 rate, and 11th in WAR. Milwaukee’s bullpen is 27th in WAR, 29th in FIP, last in HR/9, and 25th in K-BB%.
MLB Best Bet #1: Cardinals -1.5 (+115) Run Line
Chicago Cubs (19-22) at Houston Astros (22-19), 8:10 p.m. ET
- Odds courtesy of DraftKings.
This is a rare play for me on an MLB total. Both bullpens rank in the top 10 of MLB for K-BB% and FIP. Cubs starting LHP Justin Steele (6-0, 1.82 ERA) has been one of the best pitchers in baseball through mid-May.
Steele’s hard-hit rate is 23.4%, his exit velocity (EV) is 84.0 mph, his HR% is 1.0%, and his groundball rate is 50.4%. The MLB average for hard-hit rate is 38.7%, EV is 88.1 mph, HR% is 3.1%, and groundball rate is 42.7%.
Astros RHP Cristian Javier (3-1, 3.47 ERA) has some of the nastiest stuff in baseball. Javier grades in the 90th percentile for chase rate and the 80th percentile for both K% and BB%, according to Statcast.
More importantly, this is a Pros vs. Joes in the betting market for the total. According to VSIN, nearly two-thirds of the cash at DraftKings is on the UNDER while more bets are on the Over.
Similar betting splits are being seen in the consensus betting market, per Pregame.com. Oddsmakers are reacting to the cash column of the betting splits since the Cubs-Astros total opened at 8 and is down to 7.5 (-105).
MLB Best Bet #2: UNDER 7.5 in Cubs-Astros (-110)
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