Gambling on Baker’s Downfall: Go UNDER Mayfield Passing Yards Prop

I hate to kick a man when he’s down but that’s kind of what we are doing here. My favorite wager in the San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers game Sunday is BETTING PANTHERS QB BAKER MAYFIELD UNDER 195.5 PASSING YARDS (-115) at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Carolina’s defense could show up Sunday and San Francisco has an occasional no-show (see: The 11-10 loss to the Denver Broncos on Sunday Night Football in Week 2). If the Panthers do pull off a home upset, it won’t be because of Mayfield.

Baker Mayfield Passing Yards Prop (DraftKings)

Panthers QB Baker Mayfield. (Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

The Baker Mayfield Experience sucks for both parties. Mayfield is averaging 186.8 passing yards per game (28th) despite only playing one above-average pass defense this season. He is Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) lowest-graded QB and is last in success rate.

Here are recent reports of friction between Baker and the Panthers:


If the Baker-Panthers relationship keeps trending in this direction Mayfield is going to get benched, Rhule will be fired and the Panthers are going to “blow it up”. There are rumors that Pro Bowl RB Christian McCaffery is on the trade block.

Also, who would be surprised if Baker was benched halfway through a lopsided game? The line suggests the 49ers-Panthers could get ugly since San Francisco is a 6.5-point road favorite.

Niners have the best defense in football through four weeks

San Francisco has the highest pressure rate in the NFL and Carolina has the fourth-worst pass-blocking edge in Week 5, per PFF. The 49ers’ pass rush is going to be in Baker’s face all game.

Their secondary is stacked as well, allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game (161). Three of San Francisco’s starting defensive backs grade out in the top nine of their positions, according to PFF.

Furthermore, all three of the Panthers’ starting WR corp has a below-“average” to “poor” vs. the Niners’ pass coverage per PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart.

Finally, the Niners’ defense usually puts the hammer down vs. weaker competition. San Francisco is allowing just 178.6 passing yards per game as 3.5-point road favorites or greater since coach Kyle Shanahan took over in 2017.

Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET PANTHERS QB BAKER MAYFIELD UNDER 195.5 PASSING YARDS (-115). I’d bet Mayfield’s Under all the way down to 192.5 passing yards.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, Oct. 7 at 3:00 p.m. ET.


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Written by Geoff Clark

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