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We’ve had a good run with our NFL betting picks on the OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark podcast. So far this season, we’re cashing at a 68% clip (34-16).
We split last week, going 2-2, but it kept the streak of no losing weeks alive. To make it this far into an NFL season without a below .500 week in making picks against the spread, totals and player props is pretty impressive.
Yes, I just took a moment to pat myself on the back. Why? Because runs like this end. And the time to give myself credit will pass. But not yet!
Week 14 NFL Betting Picks (2-2)
Baltimore Ravens +2.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers ✅
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills Over 43.5 ❌
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys Under 45.5 ❌
New England Patriots -2 at Arizona Cardinals ✅
Week 15 NFL Betting Picks
Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos Under 36
Totals were not kind to us last week, but they have been a moneymaker this season. So, I’m not afraid to go back to the well. For this game, I just don’t know if you could set this total low enough.
First, we have a battle of backup quarterbacks in Colt McCoy vs. Brett Rypien. Neither of those guys is going to be able to do much. On one side, we have the Denver Broncos defense. They’ve been one of the best units in the NFL this season and are being completely wasted by an inept offense. That’s the kind of team where you want to bet the Under.
The Broncos have played in one low-scoring affair after another. Last week was a complete anomaly where they got completely worked by the Kansas City Chiefs, then made a crazy comeback. Prior to that, Denver hadn’t seen a total go over 40 points since October 2nd.
The Cardinals don’t exactly light up the scoreboards themselves. They average just 21.3 points per game. And when they do out up points, it’s mostly because of the heroics of Kyler Murray. They scored just 13 points last week against New England with McCoy under center for almost the entire game. The Denver defense is statistically very similar to New England’s.
The Cardinals defense isn’t great, but they don’t have to be to stop Brett Rypien from lighting them up. I have a hard time seeing how this game gets over 35 points, unless there are some massive defensive plays that flip the field hard. And that could happen, mind you. But that’s why they call it gambling!
New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders Over 44.5
This game feels a lot like a game that I got wrong a few weeks ago. That game was the Patriots-Vikings game on Thanksgiving night. I took the Under in that one and it was very wrong. But the Raiders are extremely similar to the Vikings, so I think we can flip sides and get it right this time. Not often do the gambling gods offer you a second chance!
Not only are the Raiders and Vikings right next to each other in EPA/play, but their offense is slightly better and their defense is slightly worse. Both obviously work in our favor here.
Plus, Minnesota and Las Vegas are built very similarly. Each team relies on a high-level running back and an elite wide receiver. Both have average-to-slightly-above-average quarterbacks who can make big plays AND big mistakes. Both are good for the Over.
Justin Jefferson torched the Patriots for 139 yards and a score and Davante Adams can easily replicate — if not better — that line. On the other side, New England’s offense has been very up-and-down. But Arizona has a defense very similar to Minnesota and Las Vegas, except slightly better than Vegas. And the Patriots scored 27 points against them on Monday night.
I feel confident that the Pats can get to at least 27 again this week and then we just need Las Vegas to score 20, which I feel great about. According to VSIN, 57% of the bets are on the Under but 52% of the money is on the Over. This suggests the public is on the Under, and any time the public is on the low side, you should go the other way.
New York Giants +4.5 over Washington Commanders
If you read my column every week, this next part is going to look familiar.
The phrase “I just can’t quit you” comes to mind here. I’ve been on the Giants so many times this year I’ve lost count. But they’ve won me a lot of money (9-4 against-the-spread this season) and Vegas continues to give them no respect. Except last week. I thought they were appropriately priced last week and stayed away. They promptly got beaten down by Philadelphia.
I actually thought we’d get a better number here since the Giants were 2.5-point underdogs at home against the Commanders two weeks ago. The prevailing thought is that home-field advantage is worth around 1.7 points in today’s NFL betting landscape. Using that as a guide, New York should be six-point underdogs.
But it seems Vegas is putting more stock into these teams playing to a tie just two weeks ago and not wanting to give the Giants that many points. However, I still like the 4.5. We get over the key number of three in a game that I think will be won by a field goal, and it realistically could be either team.
I don’t think the home-field advantage is that great for Washington since New York is 3-1 ATS on the road. It’s true that Washington is playing the Giants for the second time in a row — with their bye in between — but I think Brian Daboll is a tactically better coach than Ron Rivera and that edge is mitigated.
For me it comes down to the fact that these are two essentially even teams — as evidenced by their tie — where New York should be 1.5 or 2-point underdogs due to home field advantage. Instead, Las Vegas is saying that the Commanders are three points better than the Giants. I don’t think that’s true at all, so I’ll take the points.
Green Bay Packers -7 over Los Angeles Rams
The Rams should be bigger underdogs here. Coming off Baker Mayfield’s incredible heroics on Thursday Night Football against the Raiders is inflating what is a very bad team with very big flaws.
There is a reason that Mayfield is on his third team this calendar year. He couldn’t keep a job with the Carolina Panthers for crying out loud. What he did Thursday night was spectacular, but a repeat should not be expected.
Plus, that’s kinda what the Raiders do. They blew a big fourth-quarter lead against the Cardinals. They blew a fourth-quarter lead against the Jaguars. The Raiders blew a second-half lead against the Chiefs. They blew a fourth-quarter lead against the Colts. So, yeah, they do that.
I also believe that was the Rams one big game this season. They’re going nowhere and nearly their entire core — Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp — is on IR.
The Packers aren’t great, by any stretch, but they can actually still sneak into the playoffs. A win in this game would put them at 10% chance to reach the postseason, according to FiveThirtyEight.
And, according to EPA/play, they’re almost two tiers better than the Rams. And that was a Rams team mostly with Stafford as their quarterback. I’m not going to forget everything I’ve seen from Baker Mayfield this year because of one incredible quarter.
He still stinks, doesn’t know the playbook, doesn’t have any real continuity with the pass-catchers and the offensive line is a mess. Factoring in home field, Vegas is saying the Packers are less than a touchdown better than the Rams and that just isn’t true.
Green Bay beat Chicago on the road by double-digits and that Bears team is better than this Rams team. The Packers have also beaten the Cowboys and hung tough against the Eagles. Prior to last week, the Rams had lost six-straight games by an average of 9.5 points. Packers should win by around that margin, maybe more.
Follow Dan Zaksheske on Twitter: @OutkickDanZ