We had a fantastic run this past weekend, posting a 10-3 record to run our season record back to hailing distance of positivity. We’re now 61-64 on the season so I appreciate all of you who stuck with me as we are battling our way back to positivity.
I will be up in Lexington, Kentucky this weekend for Georgia-Kentucky with Big Noon Kickoff trying to keep the mojo rolling with the picks and with my weekly locks on the show. We are also 38-27 on the year in the NFL six pack. I tweet out those picks every Sunday before the games kick.
Okay, with that in mind, it’s time to rack up 14 winners here.
UMass +32.5 at Texas A&M
Here’s the truth, this Texas A&M team shouldn’t be favored by 32.5 points over air.
And, to be fair, UMass, while they are 1-9 on the year, has not lost by 33 or more points since September.
So give me the Minutemen for the cover.
Virginia Tech +10 at Liberty
Okay, I know things are awful for the Hokies. The team is 2-8, your former quarterback is going to be a Heisman finalist and now you’re on the road as a double digit underdog at Liberty. Seriously, think about how bad things have gotten for Virginia Tech that Liberty could be a double digit favorite here.
But here’s the deal, Virginia Tech hasn’t been a disaster in the last three games, losing by six to Miami, one point to N.C. State and one point to Georgia Tech. Okay, the Hokies did just lose by 17 to Duke, but three of the last four games have been inside of a touchdown in the ACC.
So I think they keep it to a single digit margin at Liberty.
Give me the Hokies here to cover.
Florida at Vanderbilt, the over 57.5
This Florida offense is starting to fire on all cylinders, posting 35, 41, and 38 three of the past four weeks — 20 against Georgia wasn’t a disaster — as part of a powerful rushing attack.
I think that continues at Vanderbilt, which is celebrating their first SEC win since 2019.
The line is out to two touchdowns, which feels about right, but I think Vanderbilt will have some offensive success against the Gators. The Commodores have scored 27 and 24 the past two weeks. I feel like they post 24 against Florida and the Gators go for 38. That gets us to 62 at least.
So hop on the over train.
Wisconsin at Nebraska +13.5
I just keep respecting Nebraska even if no one else will.
The Cornhuskers haven’t been a disaster at home this year and I feel like it’s flat out disrespectful to make Wisconsin, which doesn’t have an explosive offense at all, a nearly two touchdown road favorite. At home in the Big Ten Nebraska has won by 14 over Indiana, lost to Illinois by 17, and lost to Minnesota by 7.
This is just too many points.
Illinois +18 at Michigan
I know Bret Bielema’s team has stumbled down the stretch of late, but no one anticipated the Illini at 7-3 this year.
And this feels like the perfect trap game scenario for Michigan as they look ahead for the big game against Ohio State next weekend.
So give me the Illini plus the points at Michigan this coming weekend.
TCU -2.5 at Baylor
Vegas has no respect for TCU.
Last week the Horned Frogs were a touchdown underdog at Texas and now they’re less than a field goal favorite at Baylor.
How many games does TCU have to win before Vegas changes its mind? I’m staying on the Horned Frogs train and taking them to win by a field goal or more at Baylor.
Georgia at Kentucky +22.5
Last week Kentucky was humiliated at home by Vanderbilt.
The result? The Wildcats are even bigger underdogs than we expected.
And now the buying opportunity on Kentucky is just too substantial. We’ll be in Lexington for this game and I think the Wildcats manage a cover for us.
Penn State -19.5 at Rutgers
James Franklin’s Penn State team is rolling towards a 10-2 finish and almost no one is paying attention.
Granted the two losses are to Michigan and Ohio State, but there’s no great shame in that, the Nittany Lions are clearly the third best team in the Big Ten this season.
Rutgers, on the other hand, has won just one Big Ten game, losing by 17 to Iowa, 39 to Ohio State, 31 to Minnesota, and 35 to Michigan.
My point? If you’re a decent Big Ten team you have crushed Rutgers this season. I think that continues on Saturday with the Nittany Lions winning by over three touchdowns.
Iowa at Minnesota, the over 32.5
I mean, come on.
Have some self respect Big Ten fans.
I have never seen a number this low in major college football.
And I just refuse to believe we can’t get over this number. So let’s hop on the over train, boys and girls.
Georgia Tech +21.5 at North Carolina
The only power five conference team UNC has beaten by over three touchdowns was Virginia Tech back on October 1st. Since that time UNC has won by three, three, 18, three and two points.
Now, trust me, I know Georgia Tech is not very good, but UNC has beaten some pretty bad ACC teams by tiny margins this year.
I think that continues on Saturday, give me Tech to cover this number with ease.
Tennessee -21.5 at South Carolina
This is a simple bet for me, I just don’t think South Carolina can score with Tennessee. In fact, I think this game will be somewhat similar to what we saw last week with Mizzou.
Tennessee comes out early and sets a fast pace, the Gamecocks get sucked into that pace, and at some point Tennessee just gets up double digits and puts the pedal to the floor.
Last week it was 28-24 midway through the third quarter and then Tennessee just ran off 38 straight points to turn this game into a laugher.
I think the same thing happens against the Gamecocks this weekend.
Call it Vols 52 South Carolina 21.
Ole Miss at Arkansas +2.5
The Rebels are coming off a crushing loss to Alabama and Arkansas is flustered over its inability to win a big game in Fayetteville.
The Razorbacks started the season 3-0 and were a made field goal away from 4-0 against Texas A&M.
But since that Aggie loss, they’ve strung together two other close losses, by two against Liberty and then by three against LSU.
A disappointing 5-5 year in the third season for Sam Pittman.
But Ole Miss hasn’t been very good on the road of late this season. Losing big at LSU, narrowly escaping Texas A&M, and now headed to Arkansas.
Give me the Razorbacks to cover again and, maybe, win outright.
USC at UCLA +2.5 and the over 75.5
The Bruins helped torpedo the Pac 12’s playoff chances by losing at Arizona late last Saturday night.
Now they are back home with the Trojans coming to town and I think they end the Pac 12’s playoff dreams with an outright win as a couple of point underdog in the Rose Bowl.
I also think we’ll be racing up and down the field all game long so I’m hopping on a massive over as well.
A UCLA win in a high scoring game.
There you have it, boys and girls, we’ve got 14 winners for you.
By late on Saturday night the picks should be back in positive territory.
Let’s keep the picks mojo rolling!
See you in Lexington.