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Thanks in part to what promises to be one of the coldest NFL weekends in recent memory, Over/Under totals are very low across the league. And the Cleveland Browns-New Orleans Saints matchup features one of the lowest numbers in 10 years.
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, seven of the league’s 16 games this week feature a total of fewer than 40 points. Here is the current list:
- Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets, 36
- Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans, and 36
- Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens, the 37.5
- Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers, 38
- Las Vegas Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers, 38
- Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Rams, 36.5
- And, the potentially historic: New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns, 32.5
Granted, two of the games have totals that have way more to do with the teams involved than weather (San Francisco and Los Angeles) but there is a clear trend with the rest.
And, even the Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears game has a total of 40.5 because Chicago is expected to be CRUSHED by a Christmas storm. The only time Josh Allen has had a total that low was the crazy wind game against New England where the Patriots won with Mac Jones attempting three passes the entire game.
And that game still closed at 40 points. It went Under, by the way (Patriots won 14-10).
Browns-Saints will need to keep dropping to hit the record
At 32.5, the total has a little ways to go before it enters truly historic territory. According to Stat Muse, 28 is the lowest Over/Under total since they began tracking such stats in 1979. However, no game in the 21st century has closed under 30 points.
In fact, most of the lowest games came in the early 2000s when defenses were much more vaunted and rules weren’t so skewed towards offenses and points. The last game to close with a total of 32 or less was Colts at Bills in 2010.
So, if the Browns-Saints line closes at 32, it would be the lowest in over ten years. If it moves downward further, it would enter territory not seen in over 15 years.
2005 appears to be the golden age for low totals: that season had five totals close at 31 or less. Why? Because of the 2005 Chicago Bears. All five of the games referenced in the previous sentence were Chicago Bears games.
That Bears defense allowed a ridiculous 202 points the entire season, nearly 50 less than any other team.
The last game to close at 31 or less, though, came in 2006. That game also featured the Browns who hosted the Denver Broncos.
Be wary about betting the Under when the total is that low, though. Since 2000, games with a total of 33 or less are 68-64-2 O/U. Since 2005 they are 34-34-2 O/U and since 2010 the number is 4-4 O/U.
Currently, Cleveland is in a winter storm watch from Thursday-Sunday. On Saturday (game day), temperatures are projected for the low teens that feel like -18° with wind speeds up to 29 mph, per Accuweather. Since 2005, games with temperatures 20° or lower are 25-22 O/U.
If you like defensive battles in tough weather conditions, Merry Christmas!
This is your weekend!
Follow Dan Zaksheske on Twitter: @OutkickDanZ