U.S. Open 2023 Head-To-Heads, 3-Ball Bets: Hatton Vs. Rory, Hovland-Homa-Smith
Now that the NBA Finals and Stanley Cup Final have concluded, this week's 2023 U.S. Open at the Los Angeles Country Club will take center-stage in the sports world.
I've already picked my horses for the LACC but I want to round out my card with a couple of head-to-heads and a tournament trio at the U.S. Open.
Hot Links: 2023 U.S. Open featuring Dan Zaksheske
Tournament matchup bets have been a roller coaster ride for me this entire PGA Tour season. Yet I've eked out a slight profit betting head-to-heads in three of the last four events entering the U.S. Open.
That's good enough to get me to the betting window on the following ...
2023 U.S. Open Tournament Matchups
Tyrrell Hatton (+125) > Rory McIlroy at DraftKings Sportsbook
This Hatton number is too good to pass up. Hatton is 5th in my U.S. Open power rankings that I built using FantasyNational.com's tools and McIlroy is 7th. Over the last 24 rounds, Hatton is 6th in total Strokes Gained (SG) and McIlroy is 21st.
Hatton's worst finish over that span was a T19 at the 2023 RBC Heritage. He was 3rd at last week's RBC Canadian Open, 12th at the Memorial, 15th at the PGA Championship, 5th at the AT&T Byron Nelson, and 3rd at the Wells Fargo.
Rory McIlroy laughs with Tyrell Hatton on the 12th hole during the 1st round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard at Arnold Palmer Bay Hill Golf Course in Orlando, Florida. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
McIlroy finished T9 or better in three straight starts. But, before the PGA Championship. Rory finished T47 at the Wells Fargo and had two missed cuts at the Masters and THE PLAYERS Championship.
These guys are neck-and-neck in most key stats but Hatton has been much better on the greens lately. Hatton is 18th in SG: Putting on Bentgrass greens and SG: Putting on firm and fast greens over the last 24 rounds.
McIlroy on the other hand is 44th in SG: Putting on Bentgrass and 106th in this field for SG: Putting on firm and fast greens.
BET 1 units (u) on Tyrrell Hatton (+125) over Rory McIlroy at DraftKings
Tyrrell Hatton's odds in a head-to-head matchup vs. Rory McIlroy at the 2023 U.S. Open from DraftKings.
Justin Rose (-120) > Bryson DeChambeau at DraftKings
A lot of my colleagues and fellow golf handicappers like DeChambeau's odds to win the 2023 U.S. Open. DeChambeau won the 2020 U.S. Open and played well at the 2023 PGA Championship in May.
But, Rose is having a throwback season from when he was the best golfer in the world. He won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am in February. Rose has finished T12 or better in three straight starts and 16th at the Masters in April.
Also, Rose is 9th in my 2023 U.S. Open power rankings and DeChambeau is 63rd. Rose is 17th in my key stat model over the last 36 rounds, 10th in total SG over the last 24 rounds, 6th in total SG at comp courses, and 5th in SG: Putting on Bentgrass greens.
Justin Rose plays a shot during a practice round prior to the 123rd U.S. Open Championship at The Los Angeles Country Club.(Ross Kinnaird/Getty Images)
DeChambeau is mostly a one-trick pony while Rose is good throughout the bag. DeChambeau is one of the longest golfers off-the-tee and won the 2020 U.S. Open with a "bomb and gouge" strategy.
Rose on the other hand is +5.6 SG: Tee-to-Green over his last five starts, +3.9 SG: Approach, +1.7 SG: Around-the-Green, and +1.8 SG: Putting, per FantasyNational.com.
A lot of PGA Tour talking heads say the Los Angeles Country Club will be a "thinking man's course" and that just sounds more like Rose than DeChambeau.
BET 1u on Justin Rose (-120) over Bryson DeChambeau at DraftKings
Betting odds for Justin Rose vs. Bryson DeChambeau at the 2023 U.S. Open from DraftKings.
Tournament 3-Balls: Viktor Hovland (+130) > Max Homa & Cameron Smith at DraftKings
I was feeling FOMO on Hovland after leaving him off my betting card. Aside from Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, and Brooks Koepka, Hovland has been the best golfer in the world.
Hovland is 3rd on my 2023 U.S. Open power rankings behind Scheffler and Rahm. He won his first "big-boy" event earlier this month at the 2023 Memorial Tournament. Hovland was 2nd at the 2023 PGA Championship, 7th at the Masters, and 3rd at THE PLAYERS.
Over the last 36 rounds, Hovland is 2nd on my key stat model. While Homa is 28th and Smith is 58th, which is a noisy stat since Smith defected to the LIV Tour after his 2022 Open Championship win last season.
Viktor Hovland hits a shot during a practice round prior to the 123rd U.S. Open Championship at The Los Angeles Country Club. (Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
Homa is getting a lot of love in the betting market for being a Southern Californian native and setting the course record at the LACC in the 2013 Pac-12 Championship.
However, Homa is trash in majors. In 15 career majors, Homa has missed eight cuts and has finished T40 or worse six other times. Perhaps the 2023 U.S. Open will be Homa's breakthrough at majors.
I'm much more worried about the 2022 Champion Golfer of the Year, Smith. He obviously has win equity at the majors and I consider Smith the best putter in the world.
But, Smith has missed back-to-back cuts at the U.S. Open and Hovland is finally starting to play up to everyone's expectations. Based on good Hovland looks, Homa and Smith could play well at the LACC and Hovland still win this U.S. Open 3-ball.
BET 0.75u on Viktor Hovland (+130) over Max Homa and Cameron Smith at DraftKings
Viktor Hovland's odds in a tournament trio matchup at the 2023 U.S. Open vs. Max Homa and Cameron Smith from DraftKings.
More 2023 U.S. Open Betting Coverage
2023 U.S. OPEN BETTING ODDS, COURSE PREVIEW, POWER RANKINGS: SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER, JON RAHM LEAD THE WAY
FOUR HORSEMEN FOR THE 2023 U.S. OPEN: CANTLAY, MORIKAWA, HIDEKI AND TOM KIM
Check out the Hot Links golf gambling show hosted by Geoff Clark on the OutKick Bets podcast feed. New episodes drop Tuesdays for most full-field PGA Tour events in the 2022-23 season.
