Pushing For A Third Straight PGA TOUR Win: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Betting Card
I didn't get a chance to victory lap, hitting my second consecutive PGA TOUR winner with Justin Thomas at the 2025 RBC Heritage because I skipped last week's Zurich Classic since it's a goofy tag team event that I couldn't find an edge betting. JT ending his cold streak by winning the RBC brought my PGA TOUR 2025 bankroll above zero: +4.21 units (u).
Regular golf returns this week with THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson 2025 at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. While the Byron Nelson doesn't have the strongest field, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth, who are both native Texans, tee it up at TPC Craig Ranch, host of this tournament since 2021.
I'm keeping the same gambling strategy I used at the RBC Heritage: Betting to win 25u on my favorite pick. But, I have two favorites for the 2025 Byron Nelson: Byeong Hun An and my One-And-Done pick, Jake Knapp. The other four golfers on my card would profit me 20u with an outright win. I didn't write an analysis for Nicolai Højgaard and Isaiah Salinda since those are "vibe bets."
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson 2025 Betting Card
Byron Nelson 2025 ‘Outright 6-Pack’
The odds are via Oddschecker.com at the time of writing.
- Byeong Hun An (+2800) via BetRivers, risking 0.89 units (u).
- Jake Knapp (+6000) via FanDuel, risking 0.42u.
- Nicolai Højgaard (+6500) via FanDuel, risking 0.31u.
- Michael Thorbjornsen (+8000) via Bet365, risking 0.25u.
- Isaiah Salinda (+8000) via BetMGM, risking 0.25u.
- Davis Riley (+11000) via DraftKings, risking 0.18u.
Byeong Hun An (+2800)
I’m addicted to picking golfers to end curses and winless droughts. I had Rory McIlroy winning the 2025 Masters and completing his career grand slam. Then I hit JT at the RBC Heritage for his first win since the 2022 PGA Championship. I’m taking Ben An to break his maiden on the PGA TOUR this week.
He’s got two DP World Tour wins, including the Genesis Championship, most recently last October. Ben An has missed three cuts this year but has been playing well over the last six weeks. The 33-year-old has made five consecutive cuts, including three "signature events," the Arnold Palmer Invitational, THE PLAYERS, the RBC Heritage, and the Masters.
An finished T8 at the Arnold Palmer and a respectful T21 at Augusta. He gained strokes off the tee (OTT), around the greens (ATG), and on approach (APP) at the Masters. Ben An lost strokes putting at Augusta, but that course has some of the toughest greens on TOUR, much tougher than TPC Craig Ranch.
He was T14 in 2023 and T4 last year in his only two Byron Nelsons. The South Korean gained strokes OTT, APP, ATG, and Putting at TPC Craig Ranch last year. That said, this just feels like the week Ben An gets it done. He’s 40th in the Official World Golf Rankings and 41st on DataGolf.com, which accounts for the LIV Tour. Hence, Ben An is good enough to win one of these smaller events.
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Jake Knapp (+6000)
The Byron Nelson has been a birdie-fest since moving to TPC Craig Ranch in 2021, which favors bombers. Knapp is 21st in SG: Putting on the PGA TOUR this year and 34th in driving distance. Last year, Knapp had the lead going into the weekend at the Byron Nelson and was a stroke behind the winner, Taylor Pendrith, after three rounds before shooting a 70 (-1) on Sunday.
Knapp was the only golfer in the top 29 at the 2024 Byron Nelson to shoot a 70+ in the final round. Even though he hasn’t won this year, and won the 2024 Mexico Open, Jake is having a better season in 2025. He is 56th in total strokes gained (SG) this year and 143rd last season. However, Knapp finished third with Frankie Capan III at last week's tag team Zurich Classic.
Jake Knapp hits from the rough on the sixth hole in THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson 2024 at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. (Photo credit: Andrew Dieb-Imagn Images)
Plus, he finished in the top 25 in four straight starts in February and March: T17 at The Genesis Invitational ("signature event"), T25 at Mexico, T6 at the Cognizant Classic, and T12 at THE PLAYERS Championship ("signature event"). These events were played on different types of courses in different parts of the continent, so Jake's game is diversifying.
Finally, Knapp shot a course-record 59 (-12) in the first round of the Cognizant, and again, you have to "go low" to win the Byron Nelson. The average winning score at the Byron Nelson since going is -24, a score Knapp can reach.
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Michael Thorbjornsen (+8000)
I’m betting on talent since Thorbjornsen got his full-time TOUR status the same way wunderkind Ludvig Åberg did two years ago: Being valedictorian at the PGA TOUR University. Thorbjornsen hammers the ball off the driver and almost won at a comp course to TPC Craig Ranch — TPC Deere Run — with a T2 at the 2024 John Deere Classic (-24) in his third career PGA TOUR start.
Both TPC courses are birdie fests that favor bombers. His second-best start on TOUR was a fourth-place finish at the 2022 Travelers Championship as an amateur at another TPC track (River Highlands) in Connecticut. Thorbjornsen showed promise during the 2024 FedExCup Fall season with two T8s at the Sanderson Farms Championship and the RSM Classic, but he has been terrible this year.
Thorbjornsen has six missed cuts this season and his best finish before the Corales was two T39s at the Cognizant and Houston Open. The Stanford Cardinal finished T2 at the Corales Puntacana Championship two weeks ago and T4 with Karl Vilips at the Zurich last week. Granted, the Corales is an alternate event to the RBC Heritage with a soft field, and the Zurich is a team event.
Yet, in basketball terms, maybe Thorbjornsen just needed to see some shots go down to get his confidence back. Either way, the talent is there. He is fourth in driving distance on TOUR this year and has shown he can shoot in the mid-20s, which will be the winning score of the Byron Nelson. Most importantly, we are getting good odds for Thorbjornsen.
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Davis Riley (+11000)
If you remove his disastrous first five starts, which included withdrawing from The Senty 2025 in January and missing four cuts, Riley is having a solid season. He’s made six straight cuts since with a T6 at the Puerto Rico Open (an alternate event), seventh at the Valspar Championship, and T21 at the Masters.
Despite being just 97th in the Official World Golf Rankings, Riley was automatically invited to the Masters after winning the Charles Schwab Challenge in Fort Worth, Texas, last summer. While the Charles Schwab isn’t a "signature event," it had a much stronger field than the Byron Nelson last year.
Riley won the 2024 Byron Nelson by five strokes and the five golfers behind him were Scheffler, 2024 BMW Champion (FedExCup Playoffs) Keegan Bradley, two-time major winner Collin Morikawa, and three-time TOUR winner Sepp Straka. Scheffler is in the Byron Nelson, but those other guys won’t be at TPC Craig Ranch.
Ultimately, my case for Riley is obviously odds-dependent, but there is "proof of concept" of him winning against good golfers, and he is a pretty good driver and putter, the two most important skills for TPC Craig Ranch. He is 60th in SG: Putting on TOUR this year, out of 183 full-time pros, and has gained strokes on the field in driving distance in every start besides the Sentry.
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THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson 2025 ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Jake Knapp
I planned on using Ben An here initially, but my Mayo Cup partner, my girlfriend, urged me to go with Knapp instead. It really was a toss-up for me and I defer to her since she's picked two winners this season (Russell Henley at Bay Hill and Rory at Augusta), and Thomas at the RBC Heritage was my first.
Previous Picks (13th with $13,303,247)
- Sony Open: Austin Eckroat ($0), MC
- The American Express: Sam Burns ($57,640), T29
- Farmers Insurance Open: Rico Hoey ($0), MC
- AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Jason Day ($368,500), T13
- Waste Management Phoenix Open: Andrew Novak ($0), MC
- The Genesis Invitational: Collin Morikawa ($270,714), T17
- Mexico Open: Nicolai Højgaard ($218,800), eighth
- Cognizant Classic: Davis Thompson ($0), MC
- Arnold Palmer Invitational: Russell Henley ($4,000,000), 🥇
- THE PLAYERS Championship: Sepp Straka ($418,750), T14
- Valspar Championship: Michael Kim ($55,843), T28
- Texas Children's Houston Open: Si Woo Kim ($0), MC
- The Masters: Rory McIlroy ($4,200,000), 🥇
- RBC Heritage: Justin Thomas ($3,600,000), 🥇
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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.