The 151st Open Championship: 3 Top-Tier Golfers To Back
I need the 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool Golf Club. This is my favorite tournament on the PGA Tour calendar and my season has been trash. I'm the reigning back-to-back Champion Golfer of the Year, picking the winner two straight Opens.
However, after dropping -6.8 units (u) the Genesis Scottish Open 2023, my PGA Tour balance fell to a disgraceful -34.8u. That said, there is enough time left in this season to get back to even and The Open Championship is my tournament.
Before we get into my Open Championship 2023 betting card, let's discuss the strategy behind the picks. Also, be sure to check out my course preview and key stats for Royal Liverpool Golf Club.
First of all, shoutout to the guys at FantasyNational.com. I use their tools to produce my power rankings. All the stats below are courtesy of FantasyNational.com unless otherwise noted.
I've hit five outrights this season: Keegan Bradley at the Zozo Championship, Russell Henley at Mayakoba, Si Woo Kim at the Sony Open, Max Homa at the Farmers, and Emiliano Grillo at the Charles Schwab.
A view of the clubhouse during The 151st Open at Royal Liverpool Golf Club in Hoylake, England. (Warren Little/Getty Images)
But, since I'm down 30+ units this season on Tour, I'm something wrong. My strategy is to earn 20 units when a golfer I back wins a tournament. I'll add a placement bet to at least win one unit in case that golfer contends but doesn't win.
Word for the wise: When making placement bets, look for sportsbooks that don’t apply “dead-heat” rules. And always shop around for the best odds.
'Cream of the Crop' at The Open Championship 2023
Viktor Hovland
Admittedly, I'm abandoning my my model for Hovland. He's 10th in my Open Championship power rankings but tied with five other golfers for the 6th-best odds.
Hovland is my 4th-ranked golfer on Tour this season behind Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm and 5th when you add Brooks Koepka. All of which have better odds than Hovland to win The Open.
This season, Hovland won the 2023 Memorial Tournament, tied with Scheffler as the runner-up of the PGA Championship, finished T7 at the Masters and T3 at THE PLAYERS Championship.
Viktor Hovland with the trophy after winning the 2023 Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. (Aric Becker/ISI Photos/Getty Images)
His short-game has always been Hovland's biggest weakness but that hasn't held him back at previous Open starts. Last year, Hovland was in the final group Sunday at The Open before finishing T4 and he was T12 in 2021.
Royal Liverpool Golf Club has more of a traditional course layout than typical link-style courses. The greens aren't as large and the fairway landing zones are tighter. I.e. Hovland's game fits Hoylake.
There are six holes at Royal Liverpool with "internal out of bounds" so you have to be accurate OTT. TPC Sawgrass, which hosts THE PLAYERS, and Muirfield Village, which hosts the Memorial, have a ton of water on the course.
Hovland tees off on the 9th hole during the final round of The 150th Open at St Andrews Old Course in St Andrews, Scotland. (Harry How/Getty Images)
Course expert Steve Bamford discussed correlations to THE PLAYERS' and Masters' leaderboards to the last two Open Championships at Royal Liverpool in 2006 and 2014 on The Pat Mayo Experience.
Over the last 36 rounds, Hovland is 3rd in my key stat model. Hovland is 3rd in this field for Strokes Gained (SG): Off-the-tee (OTT), 5th in SG: Ball striking (BS), and 3rd in Proximity on approach (APP) shots from 200+ yards.
My Open Championship favorite: Viktor Hovland
Patrick Cantlay
Cantlay is 2nd in my Open Championship power rankings and is tied for the 10th-best odds to win the Open. He is 1st in my key stat model over the last 75 rounds, 2nd over the last 36, and 3rd over the last 24.
Over the last 36 rounds, Cantlay is the 2nd in this field for Strokes Gained (SG): OTT, 1st in Par 4 Efficiency: 450-500 yards, 2nd in Par 5 scoring, and 4th in Birdies-or-Better (BoB) Gained. There are seven Par 4s at Hoylake 450+ yards.
Patrick Cantlay tees off on the 18th hole during Round 4 of The 150th Open Championship at St Andrews Old Course. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Royal Liverpool Golf Club is flat and has no trees so there’s nothing to slow down the wind. And we should always expect wind at the Open Championship. Cantlay is 6th in this field for total SG in high winds over the last 50 rounds.
He is one of the best ball strikers in the world. Over the last 24 rounds, Cantlay leads the field in 3-Putt Avoidance and 14th in SG: Putting. If Cantlay can blend good ball-striking and putting this week, he’ll contend on Sunday at the Open Championship.
My 2nd-biggest Open Championship favorite: Patrick Cantlay
Collin Morikawa
My addiction to “betting Morikawa” has cost me money this season even though he’s 10th in total SG on the PGA Tour. However, I don’t need to feel bad about betting on Collin this week at The Open.
Anytime Morikawa’s odds get to +3000 or higher, he’s an auto-bet. Morikawa’s last win was the 2021 Open with similar odds. Collin missed the cut at the 2021 Scottish Open the prior week and everyone stayed away from him.
Collin Morikawa smiles with the Claret Jug trophy following his 149th The Open Championship victory at Royal St. Georges Golf Club in Sandwich, England. (Keyur Khamar/PGA TOUR via Getty Images)
The thought at the time was “Morikawa’s game isn’t suited for links-style courses”. But, Hoylake is playing firmer and faster this summer, which lends itself to Morikawa’s elite iron-play.
Tiger Woods famously “left the driver in the bag” when winning the last Open at Royal Liverpool in 2006. Golf-course nerds suggest the conditions will be firm and fast this week. Morikawa’s accuracy off-the-tee and on-approach shots give him an edge over the field.
If it doesn’t rain a lot this week, the more accurate ball strikers will have an edge in Hoylake. And no one in the world is more accurate than Morikawa. He is 3rd in SG: APP and 6th in SG: Ball striking over the last 36 rounds.
Morikawa plays his second shot on the 9th hole during Round 2 of The 149th Open Championship at St Andrews. (Warren Little/Getty Images)
Collin is 2nd in this field for Good Drives Gained during that stretch, which blends accuracy with distance. Morikawa has the 4th-most scoring opportunities in this field over the last 24 rounds.
He has picked up strokes on the greens in three straight starts. If Morikawa can stay hot with the putter, he’ll be in the mix at the Open Championship this weekend.
My 3rd-biggest Open Championship favorite: Collin Morikawa
Check out the Hot Links golf gambling show hosted by Geoff Clark on the OutKick Bets podcast feed. New episodes drop Tuesdays for most full-field PGA Tour events in the 2022-23 season.