'Drive For Show, Putt For Dough': 2025 Texas Children's Open Best Bets

The PGA TOUR tees off a critical two-week stretch in the Lone Star State with the 2026 Texas Children's Houston Open at Memorial Park. This is the last event where guys can play their way into the top 50 of the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) and clinch a berth into the Masters in three weeks. Whereas only the winner of next week's Valero Texas Open gets invited to Augusta. 

The Houston Open's field got a little easier Tuesday when World No. 1 and native Texan, Scottie Scheffler, withdrew for dad duties as his wife is expecting their second child. Now, there are only three top-20 players in the OWGR teeing it up this week at Memorial Park, with reigning Houston Open champion Min Woo Lee set to defend his title.

Frankly, Scottie's withdrawal put me in a tough spot since I placed my Houston Open bets on Monday and didn't want to give out odds that were no longer available. So, as a workaround, I'm betting to profit 16 units (u) on my outright picks for 2.08u of total exposure, and backing them up with 0.5u wagers in their "Top-20 with ties" markets. Nonetheless, here are my guys for Memorial Park. 

Houston Open 2026 Betting Card 

The following odds are based on my previous bets on the golfers listed below. Subject to change. 

🇺🇸 Brooks Koepka (+2500) via DraftKings and Top-20 with ties (+152) via Kalshi

🇺🇸 Michael Thorbjornsen (+3200) via DraftKings and Top-20 with ties (+181) via Kalshi

🇦🇺 Adam Scott (+4579) and Top-20 with ties (+189), both via Kalshi

🇺🇸 Sahith Theegala (+4579) and Top-20 with ties (+198), both via Kalshi

🇳🇿 Ryan Fox (+6700) via DraftKings and Top-20 with ties (+181) via Kalshi

Brooks Koepka

Tom Doak, who redesigned Memorial Park in 2021, had Brooks as his player consultant for the renovation. Based on Koepka’s feedback, Doak changed the finishing stretch with the idea of tightening up the leaderboard. Memorial Park’s four final holes give me "TPC Scottsdale vibes," where Brooks is a two-time winner in 2015 and 2021. 

There is a short Par-3 with a difficult green and tough pin placements on the weekend, a Par-5 that’s reachable in two strokes, a drivable Par-4, and a tough Par-4 at Hole #18. Besides his insider knowledge, my other reason for betting Koepka is his ball-striking (driving and iron-play). 

The five-time major champion ranks third in this field in Strokes Gained (SG): Ball-Striking this season and first in SG: Approach (APP), per Betsperts Golf. After a shaky start to the season where he missed every putt from 5+ feet, Brooks has finished T9 at the Cognizant Classic, T13 at THE PLAYERS Championship, and T18 at the Valspar Championship in his last three outings. 

He might not be fully back yet, but a healthy and motivated Brooks at these odds, in this field, is a bet I’m happy to make. Koepka will win on TOUR this season and I want to be there when it happens.

Michael Thorbjornsen

The 2024 PGA TOUR University valedictorian was in the final group of THE PLAYERS Championship a couple of weeks ago before ejecting by shooting a final round +5. Still, it was a learning experience for Thorbjornsen, and he gained strokes across the board. The two most important skills for the Houston Open are driving distance and chipping. 

Well, Thorbjornsen ranks 20th in this field for both driving distance and SG: Around-the-Green (ARG) over the 32 rounds leading up to the Valspar Championship, according to Bet The Number. The Stanford Cardinal was +3.9 SG: Off-the-Tee (OTT) and +1.2 SG: ARG in a T39 at last year’s Houston Open. 

He gained 2.4 strokes ARG at THE PLAYERS and 3.2 strokes ARG in his best finish this season, a T3 at the WM Phoenix Open. This matters because TPC Sawgrass and TPC Scottsdale have green complexes similar to Memorial Park, and all three courses have Poa Trivialis putting surfaces.

Adam Scott

Firstly, we know he can win the Houston Open, and we can’t say the same thing about some of the other guys in his price range. Scott has 21 international wins (13 on the PGA TOUR and eight on the DP World Tour), and he is the 2013 Masters champion. In fact, between his true "win equity," his odds, and this course fit, Scott is a better bet than a lot of guys with shorter odds. 

He plays well at comp courses to Memorial Park, both recently and historically. This includes Augusta, Riviera, where Scott won the 2020 Genesis Invitational and finished fourth this season, and the Renaissance Club, which hosts the Scottish Open, where he finished T17 and second the last two years. 

All of those courses are long, "bomber’s paradises," and the 45-year-old still crushes the ball OTT and hits his long irons well. The Aussie is 13th in this field in Ball Speed, 22nd in driving distance, third in SG: APP, and first on approach shots from 150+ yards over the last 32 rounds, according to Bet The Number.

Sahith Theegala

He was 80-to-1 at THE PLAYERS two weeks ago, which had a much stronger field at a much tougher course. Granted, Theegala fell apart in the final round of THE PLAYERS — I know because I bet him to win and finish in the top-20 — and missed the cut at the Valspar Championship last week. 

Sahith Theegala hits his tee shot at the 9th hole during the 2024 Texas Children's Houston Open at Memorial Park in Texas. (Photo Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images)

But Sahith finished a respectable T32 at THE PLAYERS, and Memorial Park is a much better course fit than TPC Sawgrass (host of THE PLAYERS) and Innisbrook (host of the Valspar). You can bomb it OTT at Memorial Park because there is less water danger and short rough, while TPC Sawgrass has water at almost every hole and Innisbrook has narrow fairways with tricky rough. 

Finally, short-game matters at Memorial Park, and Theegala is great ARG. TPC Scottsdale has similar green complexes, and he has gained strokes chipping in four of his five Phoenix Opens, including a career-best +4.0 SG: ARG this year.

Ryan Fox

The Kiwi is a bomber who ranks 14th in this field for driving distance over the last 32 rounds, according to Bet The Number. Most approach shots at Memorial Park are from 150+ yards and Fox is 11th in proximity to the hole from 150+ yards over the last 32 rounds. He is fourth in Par 3 scoring on TOUR this season and Memorial Park has five Par-3s. 

Fox was T15 at last year’s Houston Open and gained strokes across the board (driving, on approach, chipping, and putting). He’s finished T24 in three of his four starts this season and T7 at his other, The Genesis Invitational at a crossover course to Memorial Park. Three of those starts were "signature events." 

Lastly, Fox has legit "win equity". He’s a four-time DP World Tour champion, the reigning RBC Canadian Open champion, and won the 2025 Myrtle Beach Classic, a title he probably won’t defend this year because it’s an alternate event to the Truist Championship, a "signature event".

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Texas Children's Houston Open ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Brooks Koepka

Season Standings: 4,102nd with $1,602,642

• Sony Open: Maverick McNealy, T24
• The American Express: Harry Hall, T24
• Farmers Insurance Open: Adam Scott, T30
• WM Phoenix Open: Jordan Spieth, missed cut
• AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Justin Rose, T37
• The Genesis Invitational: Cameron Young, T7
• The Cognizant Classic: Nicolai Højgaard, T6
• Arnold Palmer Invitational: Scottie Scheffler, T24
• THE PLAYERS Championship: Hideki Matsuyama, T27
• Valspar Championship: Ryo Hisatsune, T30

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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2026 betting record via X throughout the entire season.