A Jim Nantz Farmers Insurance Open Theory, Plus My 2026 Torrey Pines Bet Slip

I love this tournament and this course. One of my favorite sports conspiracy theories was that Jim Nantz wanted to call the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines in San Diego, California, and the AFC championship, both broadcast on CBS, so he demanded that the PGA TOUR put the fourth round of the Farmers on Saturday. 

Usually, the Farmers is from Wednesday to Saturday, so the PGA TOUR doesn't compete with the NFL conference championships on Sunday for TV viewership. This year, the Farmers is playing the normal Thursday to Sunday schedule because it's during the bye week before Super Bowl LX next week, and the PGA TOUR doesn't have to compete with the NFL. 

Related: BROOKS KOEPKA DETAILS FIRST PHONE CALL HE MADE ABOUT MAKING A RETURN TO THE PGA TOUR

Is that true? Probably not. Hopefully, the TOUR was smart enough to avoid competing with the NFL and decided to put the final round of the Farmers on a Saturday without pissing Nantz off. I wouldn't be surprised either way. But, dammit, I love the idea of Nantz having so much clout he could force the TOUR to change its schedule. 

I was at the final round of The Genesis Invitational last year when it was relocated to Torrey Pines due to the LA Wildfires, and I had a blast. San Diego, generally, and Torrey Pines, specifically, are beautiful. More importantly, I hit an outright on Max Homa at the 2023 Farmers, back when I was good at betting on golf, so I have fond gambling memories of this tournament. 

Speaking of which, the American Express wasn't terrible last week. I profited +0.06 units (u) thanks to three top-20 wagers cashing. Now, my 2026 PGA TOUR bankroll is only -3.69u. Since it worked (sort of), I'm using a similar strategy as last week: Betting to win 20u on my outrights and placing a half-unit wager on their "Top-20 with ties" markets at DraftKings, BetMGM, and Kalshi.  

Farmers Insurance Open 2026 Betting Card

The following odds are based on my previous bets on the golfers listed below. Subject to change. 

• Hideki Matsuyama (+3000) via DraftKings, risking 0.67u.
• Will Zalatoris (+4800) via DraftKings, risking 0.42u
• Adam Scott (+5000) via Caesars Sportsbook, risking 0.4u
• Max Homa (+9251) via Kalshi, risking 0.22u.
• Andrew Novak (+11000) via DraftKings, 0.18u.

Hideki Matsuyama (+3000) 

Granted, I'm biased because ‘Deki is my favorite golfer, but he is fourth in my model at Betsperts Golf and a top-five player in this field, and is the eighth betting choice. Last year, Matsuyama was the second betting favorite to win the Farmers at +1200. 

While this year’s field is tougher, and he won The Sentry 2025 to start the season, Hideki played during the offseason, with a win at the 2025 Hero World Challenge in December, and finished a respectable T13 at the 2026 Sony Open. 

Furthermore, there are a lot of long approach shots onto small greens at Torrey Pines; Matsuyama is third in this field for approach shots from 200+ yards and eighth in Strokes Gained (SG): Around-the-Green over the last 12 months. Poa is the only green surface on which he gains strokes. 

With that in mind, despite Torrey Pines being the longest course on TOUR, short-game specialists have won the Farmers several times recently, such as Harris English last year, Max Homa in 2023, Patrick Reed in 2021, Justin Rose in 2019, and Jason Day twice in 2015 and 2018. 

Will Zalatoris (+4800) 

A notoriously bad putter, Poa is the only green surface where Zalatoris gains strokes putting. He’s made the cut in four of his seven starts at Torrey Pines. Willy Z finished T7, second, T13, and T23 in those four made cuts. Zalatoris has dealt with injuries for the past 1.5 years. 

However, when healthy, Zalatoris is one of the best ball-strikers (driving and approach) in the world. Regardless of those injuries, Willy Z is 19th in this field in SG: Approach and 23rd in approach shots from 200+ yards over the last 12 months. 

Will Zalatoris hits out of the rough during the 2023 Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines' South Course. (Photo credit: Ray Acevedo-Imagn Images)

He’s gained strokes ball-striking in six of the seven starts at Torrey Pines, including the 2021 U.S. Open and The Genesis Invitational last year. That elite ball-striking is why Zalatoris is ninth in this field for total strokes gained at Torrey Pines, and sixth at its crossover courses. 

Hopefully, this is a bounce-back season for Willy Z, and I’m investing in him early while he is still a longshot. Because when old Zalatoris returns, his odds will be +3000 or shorter.

Adam Scott (+5000) 

For what it’s worth, Scott is third in my model at Betsperts Golf, and he has gained strokes ball-striking in six of his last seven PGA TOUR starts with shot-link data. But, what I like most about Scott here is that he didn’t have an offseason and has been grinding since the 2025 FedExCup Playoffs. 

He appeared in three DP World Tour events, twice in his homeland, Australia, the Japan Open Golf Championship, and the first two PGA TOUR events of 2026. Scott made the cut in his five starts before this season, with a seventh in the BMW Australian PGA Championship and fifth in the Crown Australian Open.

Lastly, the 2013 Masters champion is one of the best putters on these bumpy West Coast Poa greens. He is 17th in this field for SG: Putting on Poa greens over the last 36 rounds. Scott finished second and T10 in the last two Farmers Insurance Opens in 2019 and 2021, gaining at least one stroke per round on the greens both times.

Max Homa (+9251) 

After having a terrible regular season last year, Homa has been quietly rounding into form since the 2025 FedExCup Fall. He finished T19 at the Procore Championship, T18 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, T9 at the Bank of Utah Championship, and T27 at The American Express last week. 

Homa won the 2023 Farmers and plays these long, difficult courses well. His two biggest wins on TOUR are the 2019 Wells Fargo Championship in Quail Hollow and The Genesis Invitational in 2021 at Riviera. Homa finished T12 at the Masters last season in a disastrous year for him, professionally, and he was T3 at Augusta in 2024. 

When he is at his best, Homa doesn't have a weak club in the bag. So, the question is "Will Homa have a bounce-back season in 2026?" At the price he was trading at on Kalshi, it was worth a shot. But, I'd play Homa down to +5000 because I believe he will win again on TOUR. The most likely spot is at a place where he's already won, in his native California. 

Andrew Novak (+11000) 

This is just a "good number" that fits into my budget for the 2026 Farmers. Novak doesn't even rank well on my model (94th out of 146 golfers), so this is just a "vibes pick," too. That said, Novak was third at the 2025 Farmers and T13 at The Genesis ("signature event") three weeks later.

Andrew Novak hits a bunker shot on the 18th hole during the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open golf at Torrey Pines. (Photo Credit: Abe Arredondo-Imagn Images)

The 30-year-old lost in a playoff to Justin Thomas at the 2025 RBC Heritage ("signature event"). Novak had a few more impressive finishes after that RBC loss, like a T17 at the 2025 Truist Championship ("signature event") and T6 at the FedExCup St. Jude Championship, the first round of the PGA TOUR's playoffs.

He technically got his first PGA TOUR win last season. Albeit it was the Zurich Classic in New Orleans, a team event, along with Ben Griffin. But, hey, a win is a win, and Novak gained strokes with every club in his bag at Torrey Pines twice last year. While I prefer Novak's top-20 price, he's got enough game to sprinkle in his outright. 

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Farmers Insurance Open ‘One-And-Done Pick’: Adam Scott 

• Sony Open: Maverick McNealy, T24 ($72,475)
• The American Express: Harry Hall, T24 ($81,420)

Even though Matsuyama is the highest-ranked player I have on my betting card, I'm picking Scott instead because I'm saving ‘Deki for a bigger tournament, perhaps. Hideki has won the Masters, Genesis, FedEx St. Jude, and the Memorial, and he’s closer to his athletic prime than Scott. Homa was also a consideration here, but I went with Scott because he ranked higher on my model. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2026 betting record via X throughout the entire season.