It's 'Nut-Crunching Time' In Circa Million VII: NFL Week 17 Picks
Two weeks to go, no room for a 3-2 or worse. Here is my NFL Week 17 card, ranked by confidence with full matchup notes.
With only two weeks left in the NFL regular season, every pick in the Circa Million VII is critical. Entering NFL Week 17, I'm in the money (top-100) and 5.5 games behind the leader. However, I need to win out for a six-figure score, which became a realistic goal after tying for fifth in the Circa Million's Third Quarter contest from Weeks 10-13.
3-2 in NFL Week 16 (49-31, tied for 45th out of 5,684 entries).
- Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) ✅
- Baltimore Ravens (-3) ❌
- Carolina Panthers (+3) ✅
- Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) ✅
- Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) ❌
An 11-week winning streak in the NFL is cool and all, but 3-2 won't get it done. As I said a few weeks ago, "3-2 is a par, 4-1 is a birdie, and 5-0 is an eagle." Well, I'm a heavy underdog to go 4-1 this week after whiffing on a pick in one of the Christmas games. Without further ado, here are my picks for NFL Week 17, and the reasoning behind them.
Week 17 lines for the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest. (Courtesy of @CircaSports on X)
Circa Million VII NFL Week 17 Card
Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.
- Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) ❌
- Houston Texans (+1.5)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5)
- Arizona Cardinals (+7.5)
- Carolina Panthers (+7)
Circa Million VII Pick #1: Dallas Cowboys (-7.5) at Washington Commanders ❌
Dallas failed to cover in a 30-23 win over Washington Christmas afternoon. You can read my square analysis for this pick in the X thread embedded below. Essentially, I thought the Cowboys were a freebie because the Commanders started a third-string quarterback, and Dallas QB Dak Prescott would destroy Washington's bottom-three defense.
But, I foolishly overlooked the Cowboys also having a bottom-three defense, and I should've never laid more than a touchdown with a road team in a division game with a defense as bad as Dallas's. My blunder could potentially cost me thousands of dollars, and my record for Thursday picks in the Circa since 2023 has fallen to 21-4 after this loss. Man, am I pissed.
Pick #2: Houston Texans (+1.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
I'm buying low on Houston after eking past the Las Vegas Raiders 23-21 as -14 home favorites last week and selling high on LAC after hammering Dallas 34-17 as slight +1 road underdogs. Yet, given their below-average offense, the Texans are a much better bet as underdogs than big favorites. Plus, beating the Cowboys isn't impressive because, again, their defense is trash.
Houston's defense, on the other hand, is my favorite unit in the NFL, and Chargers QB Justin Herbert will be running for his life all game. The Texans crushed LAC in the playoffs last season. They sacked Herbert four times and picked him off four times. That was with Chargers tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater protecting Herbert, neither of whom will play Sunday.
That said, as much as I love Herbert and head coach Jim Harbaugh, Houston's pass-rush vs. LAC's pass protection is too big a mismatch for the Chargers to overcome.
Pick #3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) at Miami Dolphins
Miami is giving rookie QB Quinn Ewers another start this week, and Tampa head coach Todd Bowles puts rookie quarterbacks in the torture chamber. Since hiring Bowles as their defensive coordinator in 2019, before he took over the head coaching job in 2022, the Buccaneers are 14-7 straight up (SU) against rookie quarterbacks.
Tampa Bay was -3 on the lookahead line for this game, and the downgrade from Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa to Ewers should be greater than three points. Miami lost to the Cincinnati Bengals 45-21 last week, and Tampa's blitz-heavy defense is a much tougher test. Meanwhile, this should be a Get-Right Game for the Bucs' offense, since the Dolphins' defense is terrible.
Finally, Tampa Bay lost to the Panthers 23-20 last week, and I like betting teams after they lose to Carolina. Teams are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS with a +8.9 spread differential in their games after losing to the Panthers this season. I value this trend because the market thinks Carolina sucks (more on this below) and overreacts when teams lose to the Panthers.
Pick #4: Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
I’m fading recent results here. The Cardinals just lost 26-19 as +2.5 home underdogs to the Atlanta Falcons, and Cincy just whooped Miami as -3.5 road favorites. Between this and a couple of more injuries to Arizona’s defense, which is a concern, Cincinnati went from -5.5 on last week’s lookahead line up to -7.5 in the Circa.
The Cardinals beat the Falcons in yards per play, 5.7-4.7, and Arizona got an unlucky against-the-spread (ATS) loss, 40-20, as +9.5 road underdogs vs. Houston two weeks ago. Moreover, the Dolphins, with Ewers making his first NFL start, got bet down from +4.5 to +3.5 vs. the Bengals right before kickoff this past Sunday.
Even though Ewers played like a rookie (26.4 QBR), Miami and Cincinnati still tied in yards per play. The Dolphins unraveled in the third quarter, committing three turnovers against Cincy, so Miami's loss looks uglier than it was, and the Dolphins have a worse defense than Arizona despite playing an easier schedule.
Speaking of defense, the Bengals have the worst defense by yards per play. Their three starting linebackers are the three lowest-graded players at their position, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). Hence, Cincinnati has trouble defending tight ends, and Cardinals TE Trey McBride is PFF’s third-highest-graded tight end in the league.
Basically, I’m fading Cincy’s god-awful defense at this number. Like the Cowboys, the Bengals -7.5 is a bad bet considering their defense cannot stop a nosebleed. Arizona QB Jacoby Brissett has been solid this season, McBride should be open all day, and WR Marvin Harrison Jr. is healthy. So, the Cardinals should be able to move the ball and keep this game close.
Pick #5: Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (+7)
This is a sandwich spot for Seattle after beating the Los Angeles Rams 38-37 in an instant classic on Thursday Night Football last week, and facing the San Francisco 49ers next week in what could be a game for the 1-seed in the NFC playoffs if both teams win Sunday. Maybe the Seahawks are looking past the Panthers, which would be a mistake.
Carolina plays up and down to its competition. The Panthers are 1-2 ATS as favorites but 8-4 ATS as underdogs, and 5-1 ATS as home ‘dogs with a +6.6 spread differential. They have upset the Green Bay Packers, Rams, and Bucs. The Seahawks are 27th in yards per rush, with the third-highest rushing rate, and we've seen their offense sleepwalk through halves, including last week's win.
Ultimately, the market disrespects the Panthers, who were -4.7 compared to an average team entering Week 1 and -4.2 entering last week, per NFL data scientist Sam Hoppen. Conversely, the Seahawks began the season as -0.7 vs. an average team and were +6.4 heading into last week. I.e., the market gives Seattle the respect it deserves, but not Carolina.
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