Chasing 11 Consecutive Winning Weeks In The NFL: Circa Million VII Week 16 Picks

I don't want to jinx myself, but the headline speaks for itself: I'm one of the hottest NFL handicappers in the sports betting space. After a 10th straight winning week, I'm now inside the money (top-100) of the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest entering Week 16 and seven games behind first place, which collects $1 million. 

4-1 in NFL Week 15 (46-29, tied for 52nd out of 5,684 entries).

1. Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) ✅
2. Minnesota Vikings (+5.5) ✅
3. Philadelphia Eagles (-11.5) ✅
4. Indianapolis Colts (+13.5) ✅
5. Arizona Cardinals (+9.5) ❌

You know you're seeing the board well when you can legitimately be butt-hurt about a 4-1. That was the case last week as Arizona should've covered in its 40-20 loss to the Houston Texans. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Cardinals lost the "noise-canceled score" 31-27. Nonetheless, it's time to shift gears toward NFL Week 16 and put together a card that'll get me closer to the top-10. 

Week 16 lines for the Circa Million VII NFL handicapping contest. (Courtesy of @CircaSports on X)

Circa Million VII NFL Week 16 Card

Listed by order of confidence. First is the most confident, and fifth is the least.

1. Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) ✅
2. Baltimore Ravens (-3)
3. Carolina Panthers (+3)
4. Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
5. Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)

Circa Million VII Pick #1: Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) at Seattle Seahawks ✅

With this cover, I'm now 21-3 in Thursday Night Football games used in the Circa contest. Granted, this was a weird win to process because I gave out LAR's +105 moneyline for my OutKick Newsletter pick of the day for Thursday, which lost after the Seahawks beat the Rams 38-37 in their overtime thriller. 

So, I lost money but won a point in the Circa contest, which could be worth more than what I lost on LAR's moneyline. I mean, I'm happy. However, I'd be happier if they held on for the win. Plus, if I didn't have the "Rams +1.5" in the Circa, this would've been one of the worst beats I've taken all year. Since I'm sure most of you watched, I won't recap it, but LAR had no business losing that game.

Pick #2: New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-3)

Perhaps this will be a lost season for Baltimore, but I'm betting on a vintage Ravens performance on Sunday Night Football. According to PFF, roughly 90% of the bets are on New England, but Baltimore has gone from a -2.5 favorite on the opener up to the current number. The Patriots will be popular this week, and popular teams have a losing record in the Circa this season. 

More importantly, this is a good spot to zag with a Ravens team that can still win their division and make the Super Bowl in a wide-open AFC. They have the best two players to defend Patriots QB Drake Maye: LB Roquan Smith, as the quarterback of Baltimore's defense, and S Kyle Hamilton, who lines up everywhere on the field. 

Meanwhile, New England's offense is too boom or bust, and the Ravens have a low explosive play rate allowed on defense. The Patriots are 24th in net early-down success rate, which is predictive because the whole playbook is available on early downs. They will have to convert a lot of third-and-longs vs. a Baltimore defense that's playing well since getting healthy. 

Ultimately, despite New England having the second-best record in the AFC, the Ravens, when healthy, are still a tier above the Patriots. Maybe I'm the last one on a sinking ship, but Baltimore's roster and home-field advantage are too good to pass up against this New England team that's overrated because it's played the softest schedule in the NFL. 

Pick #3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (+3)

This is Wrong Team Favored. At worst (or best, depending on how you look at it), this game should be a pick 'em. Both teams are 7-7 straight up (SU), but Carolina is 8-6 against the spread (ATS), and Tampa Bay is 5-9 ATS. The Panthers have a better net yards-per-play and net early-down success rate, and have a similar resume. 

In fact, Carolina beat Atlanta twice, including a 30-0 shutout, and Falcons WR Drake London was available for both games. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, have split the season series with Atlanta, winning the season opener 23-20, and losing on Thursday Night Football last week, and the Falcons didn't have London. 

The Carolina Panthers host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for their first meeting this season in NFL Week 16. (Photo credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images)

Carolina lost to the New Orleans Saints last week as -2.5 road favorites. However, that was a classic let-down spot for the Panthers after they upset the Rams in Week 13 and had a bye in Week 14. Either way, this leads to one of my favorite betting angles this season: Backing Carolina after a loss. The Panthers are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS with a +13.0 spread margin coming off a loss. 

Pick #4: Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) at Washington Commanders 

This was my second-favorite pick until Philly announced RT Lane Johnson and DT Jalen Carter are out Saturday, before I submitted my picks Thursday afternoon. Regardless, I'm moving forward with the Eagles because they should be at least -8.5 favorites here, even without Johnson and Carter. After all, Philadelphia has the better quarterback, coach, and defense by wide margins. 

Furthermore, Washington closed as +3 underdogs on the road against the New York Giants last week, and Philly is more than a touchdown better than NYG. Also, according to PFF, the Commanders lost the "noise-canceled score" 26-21 to the Giants last week. If you're getting outplayed by NYG, then the Eagles should pummel you. 

Speaking of which, Philadelphia averaged 38.0 points in its three meetings with Washington last season, including a 55-23 in the 2025 NFC Conference Championship. And while the Eagles aren't as good as they were last season when they won the Super Bowl, the drop-off from last year's Commanders team to this year's is far greater. 

Pick #5: Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans 

Initially, this pick was going to be the Cincinnati Bengals over the Miami Dolphins. Then, after Miami head coach Mike McDaniel benched QB Tua Tagovailoa, Cincy went from -1.5 to -4.5 favorites. That's just too big a spread for the Bengals on the road with the worst defense in the NFL. 

Since I don't love my options, I decided to use the "Chiefs -3.5" as my fifth pick this week for contest leverage. KC won't be popular in the Circa this week due to its crazy injury report, as people assume it'll no-show on Sunday after being eliminated from playoff contention with its loss to the Los Angeles Chargers last week, and Patrick Mahomes' season-ending injury. 

But if Kansas City tries, it can definitely beat the 2-12 Titans by four or more points, even with a bunch of backups. Andy Reid vs. Tennessee interim head coach Mike McCoy is the biggest coaching mismatch of the week. Chiefs QB Gardner Minshew is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. KC's defense still has a few game-wreckers. 

Also, Tennessee's two wins were dumb luck, and it's in the mix for a second consecutive No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft. I.e., the Titans are a bottom-three NFL franchise right now. Whereas the Chiefs are finally having a bad season after competing for championships for the past eight seasons, and they will be Super Bowl contenders again whenever Mahomes returns. 

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