NFL Defensive Player Of The Year 2023 Best Bets Include 3 Pass Rushers
The NFL Defensive Player of the Year award is essentially the "Pass Rusher Invitational". Eight of the past nine NFL Defensive Players of the Year (DPOY) have been sack artists.
Granted, three of the last six DPOY winners were the same guy: Los Angeles Rams DT, Aaron Donald. But, Sack totals is an easy stat for award voters to cling to and pass rusher is a premium position in the NFL.
Previous NFL Defensive Player of the Year recipients:
Rams DT Aaron Donald celebrates after forcing a turnover on downs vs. the Cincinnati Bengals during the NFL Super Bowl 56 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. (Michael Owens/Getty Images)
These odds are from SportsOddsHistory.com, which only tracks the NFL DPOY back to 2014. Only one "longshot" has won this award over that span when Gilmore took home NFL DPOY with 80-to-1 odds in 2019.
Perhaps it had something to do with the two leading sack getters in 2019 playing for losing teams. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OLB Shaquil Barrett led the NFL with 19.5 sacks. Then-Arizona Cardinals OLB Chandler Jones was 2nd with 19 sacks.
The point is I'm splitting 1 unit (u) among three pass rushers for my ...
NFL Defensive Player of the Year 2023 Betting Options
Favorite: Cleveland Browns edge rusher Myles Garrett (+750)
The only defender with better odds than Garrett to win NFL DPOY is Dallas Cowboys OLB Micah Parsons at +650. In order for this bet to make sense, I need to explain why Garrett should be the odds-on favorite for NFL DPOY.
First of all, it's kind of crazy that 2022 was the 1st season Garrett was a finalist on the NFL DPOY ballot, finishing 5th in voting. Garrett is a 4-time NFL All-Pro and 4-time Pro Bowler.
Browns' Myles Garrett lines up for a play vs. the Bengals at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
Garrett has double-digit sacks in five straight seasons including 16 sacks in two consecutive years. He was the highest graded defender in the NFL last season and the highest graded pass rusher, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF).
Also, Cleveland's front office improved its defense in the off-season. The Browns added Pro Bowl pass rusher Za'Darius Smith and DT Dalvin Tomlinson to their defensive line. They hired proven defensive coordinator, Jim Schwartz, as well.
Garrett sacks Buccaneers QB Tom Brady during overtime at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, Ohio. (Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
The Browns returning to the playoffs would improve Garrett's NFL DPOY argument. All the pieces are in place for the Browns to make a playoff push this year. They have a legit franchise quarterback with enough weapons behind an elite offensive line.
Cleveland's main weakness is its comically bad rush defense. If Schwartz can scheme up the Browns to stop the run and his teammates can pull their weight, it'll free Garrett up to do what he does best, which is rush the passer.
Contender: Kansas City Chiefs DT Chris Jones (+2500)
Jones has been one of the most underrated defender in the NFL for years. He's been selected to four consecutive Pro Bowls and named an All-Pro in four of the last five seasons.
In 2022, Jones was 3rd in NFL DPOY voting and a 1st-Team All-Pro. Jones tied a career-high with 15.5 sacks in 2022. Garrett is the only NFL defender with a higher grade than Jones last year, per PFF.
Jones leads the pregame huddle against the Philadelphia Eagles prior to Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. (Cooper Neill/Getty Images)
Also, Jones is the defensive leader of the reigning Super Bowl champs Chiefs who had a sneaky good defense. Kansas City will most likely win the AFC West again in 2023 and be one of the favorites to make the Super Bowl.
As of late July, Jones is sitting out of training camp in hopes of getting a contract extension. I expect the Chiefs to do right by their defensive captain and Jones to have another All-Pro-caliber performance in 2023.
Longshot: Jacksonville Jaguars DE Josh Allen (+15000)
The talent is there but Allen has not put up the sack numbers to make him a contender for this award. Allen's career-high for sacks was 10.5 in his rookie season, 2019, and that was the only year he made the Pro Bowl.
But, I see 2023 being a breakout year for Allen. PFF graded Allen as the 10th-best edge defender in the NFL in 2022. Jacksonville selected defensive lineman Travon Walker with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft to help Allen out.
Jaguars edge rusher Josh Allen sacks Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert in a 2023 AFC wild card game at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Florida. (Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, the Jaguars play in a division that could have two rookie QBs starting Week 1 and a Tennessee Titans team with one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. I.e. Allen's sack numbers should improve this season.
Allen's path to being an NFL DPOY finalist is 15+ sacks, four or more forced fumbles and Jacksonville winning the AFC South. All of which is very doable.
2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year bet slip
Again, we are splitting 1u among the three NFL defenders discussed above: 0.5u on Garrett (+750), 0.25u on Jones (+2500), and 0.25u on Allen (+15000)
Odds for my three bets to win the 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year from DraftKings as of Thursday, July 20th at 1 p.m. ET.