NFL Betting Picks For Week 7 From Analyst Hitting 60% This Season Includes Saints Over Jags & Chargers Over Chiefs

Last year, I hit 62% of my NFL betting picks in the regular season and we're off to a good start this year. After posting back-to-back 2-2 records in both Week 1 and Week 2, I posted three-straight winning weeks. Unfortunately, we posted our first losing week of the season in Week 6, thanks to Mac Jones. I'll quickly recap Week 6 and then move on to the Week 7 NFL betting picks.

Week 6 NFL Betting Picks (1-3)

New England Patriots (+3) over Las Vegas Raiders ❌

Washington Commanders at Atlanta Falcons UNDER 42.5 points  ✅

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 46 points ❌

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams OVER 48.5 points ❌

I already wrote about the disastrous Mac Jones safety that cost us a 2-2 week. And, I essentially recapped the entire week of betting, which was our worst of the season. No need to go over that again. However, this serves as an important reminder that this is still gambling. You can essentially do everything right and still lose. That happens. Put your head down and move on to the next week...

SEASON REPORT CARD (60% Overall)

Record in against-the-spread bets: 6-5 (55%)

Record in over/under bets: 9-5 (64%)

*You can track all my betting picks for the season here

Week 7 NFL Betting Picks

Lines are from PointsBet Sportsbook as of Wednesday afternoon.

One note before we get to the picks. UNDERS are hitting at a ridiculous pace this season. Overall this season, UNDERS are at 60% to (obviously) 40% for OVERS. But, Week 2 was an anomaly where most games actually went OVER. From Week 3 through Week 6, UNDERS are at an insane 67%.

The question is whether that trend is here to stay or if regression is due. The totals this week suggest the former: seven games feature a total of 42 points or lower. Let's see where the value lies...

New Orleans Saints (-1) over Jacksonville Jaguars

I rarely bet Thursday Night Football, but I can't stay away this week. There's uncertainty around Trevor Lawrence's health, but this pick doesn't have a lot to do with that. And, perhaps, I'm using poor analysis here ... but here goes: the Jaguars must be EXHAUSTED.

They played back-to-back games in London in Weeks 4 and 5. Then, they returned home for a game against the Colts. They won all three. But, now they have to go back on the road -- on a short week -- and play in a very tough environment.

The advanced analytics basically believe that the Jaguars and the Saints are the same team. Seriously:

Look how close their logos are to one another. The Saints defense is slightly better than the Jaguars offense is slightly better. Now, the Jaguars have a massive advantage at head coach. Doug Pederson is a far better NFL coach than Dennis Allen. However, Thursday games mitigate that advantage, to some degree. The less time that both coaches have to prepare, the less advantage gained by the better coach. Especially since the better coach also has to travel his team.

Jacksonville has to be looking forward to having 10 days off after this game and their starting quarterback is at less than 100%. Based on the fact that these teams are very similar and the Saints are at home, the line should be more like Saints -3. Especially with Lawrence's status unclear. In fact, prior to the Lawrence injury, the Jaguars were actually favored in this game.

We're backing Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday Night Football with one of our Week 7 NFL betting picks. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

They shouldn't be. I'm not a big believer in the Saints, but this spot is just too good for them. I'm backing New Orleans at home on a short week against a tired team with a deflated line for NFL betting pick #1. One added bonus: DraftKings reports that over 70% of the bets on Jacksonville. That makes them a public underdog, and those are always ripe for fading.

Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5) over Kansas City Chiefs

I know I'm going to hate myself for this one. But this line is so fishy. According to DraftKings, a whopping 87% of the bets are on the Kansas City Chiefs. That means the line should be a lot higher. Especially since the Chiefs are considered one of the league's elite teams AND they're at home.

Plus, the Chargers just lost a heartbreaker on Monday Night Football in front of a massive audience. Why are the Chiefs not touchdown favorites here? Because these teams are more evenly matched than people want to believe. Additionally, what's the big problem with the Chargers? They can't win close games. Good news! We don't need them to win. We need them to keep it within five points.

Well, more good news! The Chargers haven't lost to the Chiefs by more than six points since 2019. Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in the past six matchups with their AFC West rival. They lost both matchups last year by three points. Another weird stat: Los Angeles is 8-3 ATS in their past 11 trips to Kansas City.

The point is, these teams tend to play very close games against one another. The Chiefs are nearly always favored, but rarely cover. Everyone hates Chargers coach Brandon Staley (except me) but since he became the head coach, Los Angeles is 13-8 ATS on the road. As a road underdog, that number improves to 7-2.

Justin Herbert and Brandon Staley have proven to be a strong duo when it comes to covering games as road underdogs, and we're taking them to do it against against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

I get it: this is not a fun bet to make and one that could make people think I have no idea what I'm talking about. Hell, I might not. But I think this game is going to be close, so I'll happily grab the 5.5 points with NFL betting pick #2.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 38 points

Here's what I wrote last week about the Falcons: Last year, I won consistently backing the New York Giants. The market never believed in them and we used that to our advantage. This year, I think that strategy might apply to the Atlanta Falcons UNDER. The Falcons are 3-2 while playing, essentially, a 1990s style of football. They run the ball A TON, even in situations that don’t call for it.

That held true for another week, although they did throw the ball a little bit more (yet still managed to post a negative Pass Rate Over Expected). Still, they lost to fall to 3-3, but more importantly, their total went UNDER. Again. They are 5-1 to the UNDER this season and now face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that scored six points last week.

The Bucs defense is solid and their offense is just league average. Facing a Falcons team that plays at a snail's pace in a game with a small spread (Bucs -2.5), expect a slow game without a ton of points. This is one of those "they can't make the total low enough for me to NOT bet the UNDER" type of games.

The Buccaneers are a heavy UNDER team (4-1 to UNDER this year) and the Falcons are, too. I'm not overthinking it. Just bet the UNDER with NFL betting pick #3.

Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos OVER 45 points

The Denver Broncos defense is so bad that rumors are floating around that they might try to get Rex Ryan to return to the NFL to become their defensive coordinator. Their defensive EPA/play is nearly twice as bad as the next worst defense (Chicago). The Green bay Packers aren't exactly great in that department, either.

And, actually, both teams have league-average offenses. Russell Wilson stinks, but their offense still puts points on the board. That's mostly because their terrible defense forces them to do that. There are only six teams in the entire NFL who have gone OVER their total more than they have gone UNDER. Both of these teams are in that category (along with Chicago, Arizona, Miami, and San Francisco).

Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson can still put points on the board, enough to back the OVER with one of our NFL betting picks in their Week 7 matchup with the Green Bay Packers. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

By the way, seven teams are 50-50 on OVER vs UNDER and a whopping 19 teams have more UNDERS than OVERS. Wild stuff, truly.

But, back to this game. Nine of Denver's last 11 games (dating back to last season) have gone OVER the total, including five of the past six home games. Green Bay already played the next-worst defense in the NFL on the road and they scored 38 points against Chicago.

With the way these two teams hit OVERS, you'd think this line would be higher. But the overall low-scoring NFL has slanted all totals downward. So, I like this number and will back the OVER with NFL betting pick #4.

Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 51.5 points

I see this game very similar to the Dolphins/Bills game that we hit the OVER on a few weeks back. To me, books still haven't figured out what to do with the Miami Dolphins with regards to their totals. While the rest of the NFL seems averse to scoring, the Dolphins can't stop.

Plus, the Philadelphia Eagles defense regressed from last season. That's not surprising, since they lost some major playmakers to free agency. The big strength of the Eagles defense is their defensive line. But, Miami is built to counter that. They get the ball out of Tua Tagovailoa's hands quickly and force teams to chase their speedsters around the field. That's not a strength of the Eagles, who are banged up in their secondary.

The Philadelphia Eagles are going to struggle to match the speed of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert and the rest of the Miami Dolphins, making the OVER a good NFL betting pick in Week 7. (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images)

On the other side, Miami's defense is below-average. They seem perfectly content to make every game a shootout, believing that they can outrun their opponents. Most of the time, they can. While Jalen Hurts has struggled this season, Philadelphia still boasts some incredible offensive weapons. If you just look at points allowed, Miami seems OK. But look at the offenses they've held to 21 points or fewer: Patriots, Broncos, Giants, and Panthers. Who's the best offensive weapon on any of those teams?

Conversely, the Chargers scored 34 points against the Dolphins and the Bills nearly hung a 50-spot. Philadelphia is much more like those teams than the ones listed previously. This game has all the earmarks of a wild shootout, so I say let's hop on and enjoy the ride.