NFL Betting Picks For Week 4 Include Backing Bears & Rams, Plus A Massive Shootout In Buffalo

Last year, I hit 62% of my NFL betting picks in the regular season. We started the season right at the .500 mark, going 2-2 in both Week 1 and Week 2. Although we hadn't had a losing week, it felt good to finally post a winning one in Week 3. I'll quickly recap that and then move on to the Week 4 NFL betting picks...

Week 3 NFL Betting Picks (3-2)

Detroit Lions (-3) over Atlanta Falcons ✅

Tennessee Titans (+3.5) over Cleveland Browns ❌

New York Jets at New England Patriots UNDER 36.5 points ✅

Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders UNDER 43 points ✅

Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals OVER 44 points ❌

There's not much to say about the Detroit-Atlanta matchup. The analysis was spot-on, Atlanta was an overrated 2-0 and the Lions were coming off a letdown Week 2 loss. Nailed that one. Detroit controlled the game and never really faced doubt on covering.

I'm mad at myself for the Tennessee pick. I broke my own rules; Cleveland coming off an embarrassing Monday Night Football loss boosted by two fluky defensive touchdowns and Tennessee off a big win. Just a dumb pick. My bad.

Again, not a ton to say about either of the UNDER picks. Jets/Patriots pretty much exactly as I predicted, neither team could really do anything on offense. We faced a little bit of drama with the Raiders but they elected to kick a stupid field goal late to ensure this cover.

Jets/Patriots was exactly the ugly game we thought it would be when we backed the UNDER with one of our Week 3 NFL betting picks. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Still, analysis felt strong. This was a slugfest-type game where both teams scored touchdowns early but then it settled into what we projected.

We missed on the Monday night game and it might seem like a bad pick. Really, some plus-side of the field turnovers by both teams hurt and, yeah, the Bengals offense still doesn't look right. Still, not going to beat myself up over this one because we were still just a couple plays going a different direction from a completely different outcome, even if the score didn't appear that way.

Week 4 NFL Betting Picks

Lines are from PointsBet Sportsbook as of Wednesday afternoon.

Chicago Bears (+3.5) over Denver Broncos

Both of these teams stink. Despite getting 70 points hung on them last week, the public is STILL more down on the Chicago Bears than they are the Denver Broncos. The preseason line for this game was Bears +1.5. Last week, it moved to +2.5. After Denver got beat 70 (!!) to 20, the line STILL moved another point towards them.

Clearly, the market just thinks the Bears are the worst team in the NFL. They might be that. In fact, they probably are. But I don't believe that Denver is much higher than them. Definitely not 3.5 points better ON THE ROAD. Adding in home-field advantage, that means Vegas has the Broncos as 6.5 points better on a neutral field.

Denver doesn't deserve to be 6.5-point favorites over ANY team in the league right now. Both of these teams are in the lowest possible tier with regards to EPA (expected points added) per play.

The Bears are slightly below Denver, but Justin Fields showed last year that he can make some big plays with his legs. With all the talk about his passing, I expect the Chicago coaches to back off a little bit and let him be an athlete -- that's his only real asset right now.

To me, this is just too much of an overreaction on the Bears. Denver is just as bad and yet they're giving over a field goal on the road. That's insane. Don't think about the teams in this one, just think about the number. This is a perfect number for NFL betting pick #1.

Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) over Indianapolis Colts

This is a perfect spot for my favorite NFL adage: fade what you saw most recently. The Los Angeles Rams looked bad on Monday Night Football against a Bengals team that didn't look great themselves. The Colts got a big upset victory over the Baltimore Ravens. As of last week, the Rams were the FAVORITES in this game.

But, as usual, the market overreacted to one week. The Rams porous offensive line struggled against the Bengals strong edge rushing due of Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard. The strength of the Colts defensive line is on the interior. Their pass rushers are not particularly strong. The Rams dominated the Seahawks in Week 1, another team with a struggling pass rush.

The Rams offensive line should have a much easier time with the Colts than they did against the Bengals, making them a strong NFL betting pick in Week 4. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Plus, the Colts benefitted from starting veteran Gardner Minshew over rookie Anthony Richardson. Richardson is expected to play this week. Sean McVay is going to have a good plan on how to attack the rookie signal caller.

The Rams are a better team than the Colts and deserve to be favored. And, they were until about four days ago. That's wrong. Take the points with the Rams for NFL betting pick #2.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills OVER 53.5

This might seem like an overreaction to the Miami Dolphins scoring 70 points last week, most in the NFL since the season that Super Bowl 1 took place. But, it's not. Well, maybe it is. Still, the Dolphins and Bills actually tend to play high-scoring games. Seven of the last 10 games between these two teams have gone OVER the total. In Buffalo, that number jumps to nine of the last 10.

Buffalo's defense is very good. But they just haven't faced anything like the Miami Dolphins this season. The Dolphins offense is on a historic pace and the market doesn't quite know how to react yet. 53.5 points is a high number. But is it enough? Two of Miami's three games have gone over 70 (!!) points this season.

There's no reason to think the Miami Dolphins high-flying offense is going to slow down in Week 4. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The Bills struggled against the Jets in Week 1 -- mostly due to Josh Allen turnovers -- but have since scored 38 points and 37 points. One of the teams they scored those points against was the Washington Commanders who have nearly an identical defensive EPA/play as the Miami Dolphins.

This has a chance to be one of the most exciting football games in the NFL this season. Both coaches are going to be aggressive, knowing that the other team's offense is going to score touchdowns. And Sean McDermott and Mike McDaniel are already on the aggressive side of the scale. Back the OVER for NFL betting pick #3 and sit back and watch the fireworks show.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints UNDER 40.5 points

Not a week goes by that I don't give out a "they can't make this line low enough for me to not take the under." This week, thats the Buccaneers and Saints. Admittedly, those lines are usually in the 30s, but this is actually the lowest total on the slate this weekend.

The rationale here is pretty simple: both of these teams boast above-average defenses and relatively average, if not below average, offenses. The Buccaneers had an offensive spike week against the Bears, but Chicago's defense is among the worst in the NFL. The Saints have yet to score more than 20 points in any game this season and starting quarterback Derek Carr is dealing with a shoulder injury.

Expect the Saints to lean heavily on their rushing attack, especially with the return of running back Alvin Kamara. Whether Carr plays hurt (unlikely) or Jameis Winston starts, the Saints are going to try and shorten the game. These two teams met last season and Winston started that game. The Bucs won, 20-17.

Expect the Saints to lean on Alvin Kamara in his return to the lineup, one of the many reasons the UNDER is a good NFL betting pick in their game against the Buccaneers. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images)

In that game, Tampa Bay started a guy named Tom Brady. Not a guy named Baker Mayfield, who will start Sunday. Plus, the Buccaneers offense doesn't have the kind of threats to beat teams for long touchdowns, which kill unders. Mike Evans is still great, but he's not a burner. If anything, he's a chain-mover that's great for unders.

On the New Orleans Saints side, Kamara might still have that ability but he's going to be rusty. Rashid Shaheed has shown that big-play ability, but it's hard to trust Winston to consistently get him the ball. The one downside here is that both Mayfield and Winston make bad decisions that can lead to easy points for their opponents.

We're going to bet that's less likely than the obvious: these teams are going to struggle to score points. Back the UNDER in this one for NFL betting pick #4.

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants OVER 47 points

The Seattle Seahawks defense is terrible. The Giants defense is actually worse. Both rank in the Bottom 6 in the NFL in EPA/play allowed. Seattle's offense is actually very good, while the Giants offense ... isn't. But they likely hit rock bottom in Week 3.

That's actually keeping this total down, but the Giants showed last year that they can get hot on offense. This matchups against Seattle provides a perfect "get right" opportunity. In fact, if they don't score at least 24 points, I'm officially giving up on the Giants.

Schedule-makers did not do New York any favors. They've faced two of the best defenses in the NFL -- the Cowboys and 49ers -- in the first three weeks of the season. They struggled in the first half against the Cardinals before exploding for 31 points in the second half. Expect to see much more of that against Seattle.

The Seahawks lit up the Lions and Panthers over the past two weeks, scoring 37 points in each game. Both of those teams have better defenses than New York. This line belongs in the 50s but the market is so down on the Giants offense that there's value here.

Take the OVER as NFL betting pick #5 in Week 4.