Dumbo 2-Team MLB Parlay Wednesday Featuring: Yankees-Angels, Nationals-Mariners
Because I'm a New York transplant living in Long Beach, Calif., I see my New York Yankees (34-20) whenever they visit the Los Angeles Angels (25-29) in Anaheim. And, if I'm going to the game, I'm damn sure betting it. Well, it's that time of the year again, and the Yankees-Angels series finale is Wednesday. The Yankees won the first two games by a combined score of 8-3.
The Yankees have won eight of the last 10 games, and the Angels are on a four-game losing skid following an eight-game win streak. Their No. 1 starter, LHP Yusei Kikuchi (1-4, 3.17 ERA), takes the mound for the series finale, and New York sends out RHP Clarke Schmidt (1-2, 4.58 ERA).
Even if I weren't a Yankees fan, I'd still bet them Wednesday. They crush lefties and Kikuchi's underlying metrics suck. NYY's lineup is first in wRC+ and wOBA vs. left-handed pitching, and ranks fifth in hard-hit rate, per FanGraphs. Kikuchi is below average in K%, BB%, expected batting average, and expected ERA, according to StatCast.
Granted, Schmidt wouldn't be in the rotation if Gerrit Cole and RHP Luis Gil were healthy, or RHP Marcus Stroman played up to his contract. However, baseball is all about relief pitching nowadays, and the Yankees are fifth in bullpen WAR, while the Angels are last, per FanGraphs. Not that it matters, but the Yankees still have their two best relievers available.
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That said, I'm left with two options for betting NYY: Take their expensive moneyline straight up, betting their 1.5-run line, or parlay them with another team. I'm choosing the latter, and parlaying New York's -155 moneyline with the Seattle Mariners' moneyline (-218) vs. the Washington Nationals at DraftKings for a +140 payout.
The Mariners (30-23) beat the Nationals (24-30) in their series opener Tuesday, 9-1. Seattle's starter on Wednesday, RHP George Kirby (0-1, 12.27 ERA), got pelted in his first start of the year last week. Kirby gave up 5 ER on 6 hits and 1 walk with 4 strikeouts over 3.2 innings pitched in a 9-2 loss to the Houston Astros.
But, Kirby was excellent in his first three years in MLB and will be fine. Kirby led the majors in K/BB rate in 2023-24 and made the 2023 MLB All-Star Game. He's only 27 and the 20th pick in the 2019 MLB Draft. Nationals' starter Wednesday, RHP Trevor Williams (2-5, 6.39 ERA), has never made an All-Star team and has a 52-60 record with a 4.41 ERA over his 10-year career.
Furthermore, Washington's bullpen has the second-worst ERA in MLB behind the Angels, the Mariners are eighth in hitting WAR, and the Nationals are 26th, according to FanGraphs. I.e. Seattle has a three-phase edge over Washington in starting and relief pitching and batting.
Look, "sharp" MLB handicappers might poo-poo parlays, but I'm not sharp and don't pretend to be. Nevertheless, I'm pretty good at cashing MLB futures, and I'm 15-8 this season with a +35.1% return on investment for +8.77 units (u).
Best Bet: New York Yankees & Seattle Mariners moneyline parlay (+140)
- For the record, I'm risking 1u to profit 1.4u.
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