Who Are The Most Likely Trade Candidates In MLB This Year?

Somehow, we're already nearly two months into the 2025 Major League Baseball season. With most teams having played at least 50 games, it's longer "early," meaning those at the top and bottom of the standings are looking towards July and the trade deadline.

This season, like in 2024, could be quieter around the deadline due to a lack of high-profile free agents to be. Along with the fact that several of those upcoming free agents are on teams in the thick of the postseason race, making trades unlikely.

Kyle Tucker, sure to be the most in-demand player on the free agency market this coming offseason, is on the first place Chicago Cubs. Hard to see him getting moved. Alex Bregman, who's likely to opt out of his contract after a stellar start to 2025, is on the Boston Red Sox who remain in playoff contention. 

But there are still several stars who could be dealt, and with contending teams already dealing with significant injuries at key positions, the bidding wars could be extremely competitive.

MLB.com surveyed a number of executives within the sport to see who they think is most likely to move, with some surprising, and unsurprising, results.

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - JUNE 07: Luis Robert Jr. #88 of the Chicago White Sox hits a home run in the first inning off Cooper Criswell  of the Boston Red Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on June 07, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)

MLB Execs Seemingly Expect Some Fringe Contenders To Sell

The player most likely to move, per the new survey, is Miami Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara. It's a sign of how few pitchers are available that Alcantara is the top candidate, while running an ERA over 8 through the first two months. But someone with his track record of success is always going to be in high demand, especially for teams who think they can "fix" any bad habits.

The Marlins are nowhere close to competing, making Alcantara expendable, and with some underlying stats that hint at better performance to come, execs believe he's close to turning a corner.

"The longer he is removed from the injury the better he will likely be," one executive said, per MLB.com. "At the deadline, he could demand a pretty price with up to two-and-a-half years of control remaining on his contract."

"It’s not very often a Cy Young caliber starting pitcher is available on the market," another NL executive said. "If he gets back to his old ways, he can have a major impact on who ends up the eventual World Series champion."

Luis Robert Jr. is also expected to be available; it was widely believed he'd be moved in 2024 too, though the White Sox instead decided to hang on to him and hope for a better offer. With an even thinner deadline class this year, they just might get it. 

The players who received the last two votes though? That's the biggest surprise.

Sandy Alcantara (12 votes)
Luis Robert Jr. (5 votes)
Nolan Arenado (1 vote)
Framber Valdez (1 vote) 

Nolan Arenado and Framber Valdez? Traded at the deadline? 

The Cardinals are just three games behind the Cubs and one game out of the wild card, and their +41 run differential implies it hasn't just been good luck. Would they really trade Arenado while fighting for a playoff spot? As unlikely as it sounds, it's even less likely considering Arenado's offensive free fall after the 2022 season. 

His weighted runs created plus, where 100 is the league average, has gone from 149 in 2022, to 106 in 2023, to 102 in 2024, to just 95 so far this season. With two more years of $30+ million salaries left, his trade value is minimal. But the Cardinals, looking to shore up their farm system, might be willing to eat some of that guaranteed money if they fall out of contention.

The Astros are also known for their frugality, making Valdez an intriguing candidate to move. He's a free agent after the 2025 season, making $18 million this year, and remains one of baseball's most consistent and reliable starting pitchers. If Alcantara can bring a big haul in return, Valdez, despite being a rental, could bring even more. Though Houston's still hanging around in the AL West and wild card, they're just 26-25. Finally, years of trading or not signing their best players seems to have come back to bite them. 

If they decide to try for 2026, Valdez instantly becomes the most desirable target at the deadline. And with the Astros dedicated to putting saving money first, there's little chance they sign him anyway.

It might seem slow now, but this July could be full of fireworks. Stay tuned.