My First NFL Week 4 Bet Is 'Square': Carolina Panthers Over New England Patriots

Pro Football Focus (PFF), Pregame.com, and BetMGM are all reporting that, as of Tuesday, more bets have been placed on the Carolina Panthers (1-2), while more money is on the New England Patriots (1-2) when they meet Sunday in NFL Week 4. 

In the sports betting space, this is known as a Pros vs. Joes game, with the cash column representing the former and the bets column representing the latter. Well, call me a "sucker," but I don't see why New England is favored this much over Carolina. 

Stick with me here … 

Preseason, the Patriots' average spread was 3.0 points better than the Panthers'. New England is 1-2 against the spread (ATS), and Carolina is 2-1 ATS. The Patriots lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers 21-14 in Week 3, and the Panthers shut out the Atlanta Falcons 30-0. 

After last week, the market downgraded New England by 0.1 points and upgraded Carolina by 0.7 points, per Inpredictable.com. However, when you give the Patriots a 2.0-point boost for home-field, the market is still saying they are 3.5 points better than the Panthers on a neutral field. 

… The dude doesn't abide. 

Prediction: Carolina Panthers 27, New England Patriots 21

As crazy as this sounds, I truly believe noted Boston sports fans, Bill Simmons and Dave Portnoy, are the reason why New England is overrated in the market. I can't figure out another reason why the Patriots are power-rated this much higher than the Panthers, because New England sucks. 

First-year Patriots WR Stefon Diggs is washed and too busy making babies with Cardi B and Instagram models. RB Rhamondre Stevenson literally fumbled the game away last week. Highly-touted rookie RB TreVeyon Henderson is averaging 3.4 yards per rush. All five offensive line starters have a failing grade, per PFF. 

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Sports Reference has a "Simple Rating System" (SRS), which blends point differential with strength of schedule. New England is 29th in SRS (-11.01), whereas Carolina is sixth (+8.66 SRS). Again, all I'm asking is, "Why are the Patriots more than -3 favorites over the Panthers this week?" 

Sure, New England QB Drake Maye is better than Carolina QB Bryce Young. Maye has a higher PFF grade and a better QBR. Otherwise, the Panthers are better at every position. I'll take Carolina rookie WR Tetairoa McMillan over any Patriots receiver, and Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard is better than Stevenson and Henderson. 

Without No. 1 CB Christian Gonzalez, who might not play again this weekend, New England's pass defense is getting shredded. Plus, the Patriots are the worst tackling team in the NFL, according to PFF, and Young has a below-average aDOT. So, whether it be by missed tackles or coverage breakdowns, Carolina's offense should have success Sunday. 

Furthermore, the Panthers are eighth in defensive EPA/play, compared to the Patriots, who are 26th, per RBSDM.com. And, as long as they are healthy, Carolina CB Jaycee Horn and DT Derrick Brown are ballers, which is more than you can say about any of New England's defenders currently. 

Maybe I'm stupidly buying high on the Panthers after they randomly trounced the Falcons last week. But, I just don't see how you can lay more than a field goal with the Patriots against any NFL team right now. If I'm wrong, I'll happily hold the L. 

Best Bet: Carolina Panthers +5.5 (-110), playable down to +3.5, available at most sportsbooks 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.