One Road 'Dog, One Total Among MLB Best Bets For Thursday

I took my ball and went home, so to speak, after losing both MLB best bets Monday. Granted, I'm biased, but I'd categorize those losses as "bullsh*t." No one remembers, nor should they, yet the Philadelphia Phillies got hosed by sketchy home plate umpiring in their 3-1 loss to the San Francisco Giants, and the LA Angels' bullpen inexplicably pitched well in their 6-5 win vs. the Texas Rangers. 

However, that's "water under the bridge," and I'm ready to get hurt again Thursday. There are enough sports for me to bet on this weekend (the Genesis Scottish Open and the Saratoga Race Course) that I'll probably go off the grid with another losing day. Hopefully, I have better luck, but here are my looks for Thursday. 

MLB Best Bets: July 10

• Washington Nationals (+125) moneyline, down to +115, at St. Louis Cardinals via Fanatics Sportsbook, risking 1 unit (u).
• OVER 10.5 (-105) in Atlanta Braves at Homeless Athletics via FanDuel, risking 1.05u.

Nationals (38-54) at Cardinals (49-44)

Season Series: 

• St. Louis leads 4-1, but this is the rubber game of the three-game set.

Current Form: 

• Washington is 4-6 over its past 10 games.
• The Cardinals have won four of their last 10 games, as well.

Starters 

• Nationals RHP Michael Soroka (3-6, 5.40 ERA).
• Cardinals RHP Miles Mikolas (4-6, 5.26 ERA).

This is a full-on fade of Mikolas, who's been awful recently. Mikolas has lost four consecutive decisions and has a 7.75 ERA over his last seven starts. Out of 137 starters with at least 50 innings pitched, Mikolas is tied for 129th in Stuff+, according to FanGraphs. He is in the bottom 20% of pitchers in expected ERA, whiff rate, and hard-hit rate, per Statcast. 

Washington Nationals rookie OF James Wood hits a solo home run vs. the Detroit Tigers at Nationals Park. (Photo Credit: Brad Mills-Imagn Images)

Albeit, Soroka isn't exactly an "ace." But, he's tied for 67th in Stuff+ and ranks inside the top quartile of MLB pitchers in expected ERA, and expected batting average. And while Washington's bullpen is terrible, it does have its top-three arms available. Also, the Nationals should be motivated after their shake-up in their front office this past weekend. 

Washington fired manager Dave Martinez and president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo on Sunday. They were on the 2019 World Series team but have missed the playoffs in the last five years. Since C Keibert Ruiz's eight-year, $50 million deal is the biggest contract on their roster, most of the Nationals are playing for a job and more money. 

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OVER 10.5 in Braves (40-51) at Athletics (38-56)

Season Series: 

• This is the rubber game of their set, which is the only time these teams face each other this year. The Athletics won the series opener 9-2, and the Braves evened the series with a 10-1 victory.

Current Form: 

• Atlanta has lost seven of its past 10 games and just snapped a five-game losing skid Wednesday.
• The Athletics are 5-5 over their last 10 games.

Starters 

• Braves RHP Spencer Strider (3-7, 3.93 ERA).
• Athletics LHP JP Sears (7-7, 4.76 ERA).

Strider missed most of last season with an injury and hasn't returned to his dominant form. He's lost command this year and ranks in the second percentile for exit velocity, according to Statcast. Sears is the fifth starter in one of the worst rotations in baseball, and the Athletics have the second-worst bullpen ERA in the majors. 

Meanwhile, there are hitter-friendly conditions at the Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. Typically, the ball travels further in the heat, and it's supposed to be around 100° in the Bay Area on Thursday. Per Statcast, Sutter Health Park is the second-most hitter-friendly ballpark, behind Coors Field. Lastly, the Athletics are 26-18-3 Over/Under at home this year, the third-highest Over rate in MLB. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2025 betting record via X all season.