MLB Best-Bet Double Play For Monday Includes Home 'Dogs In Divisional Games

When one of my MLB best bets Friday got rained out, I should've taken my refund and skipped the Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals make-up game the next day. But, I got greedy after hitting the Chicago White Sox's moneyline (+152) in a 12-5 win over their crosstown rival Friday, and it cost me when I bet the Guardians again Saturday, and they lost to the Royals in extra innings.

That said, Mondays are my best betting day of the week because I come in clear-headed. I've had a day to cool off after losing my sh*t when Cleveland's sketchy-a** closer Emmanuel Clase choked against KC this past weekend, and I'm ready to get my money back. With that in mind, here are my two baseball looks for Monday. 

MLB Betting Card: July 28

• Milwaukee Brewers (-102) moneyline, down to -115, vs. the Cubs via DraftKings, risking 1.02 units (u).
• [Homeless] Athletics (+104) moneyline, up to -105, vs. the Seattle Mariners via FanDuel, risking 1u.

Cubs (62-43) at Brewers (62-43)

Head-to-Head: 

• Chicago leads 3-2.

Current Form: 

• The Cubs are 6-4 over their last 10 games and beat the White Sox Saturday and Sunday after losing their series opener Friday.
• Milwaukee has won seven of its past 10 games but lost two of three at home to the Miami Marlins this past weekend.

Starters 

• Brewers RHP Jacob Misiorowski (4-1, 2.45 ERA).
• Cubs LHP Matthew Boyd (11-3, 2.20 ERA).

Two things can be true at once: It's bullsh*t that Misiorowski made the 2025 MLB All-Star Game after just five major-league starts, and he's really freaking good. Misiorowski is second in Stuff+ at FanGraphs among starters with a minimum of 20.0 innings pitched. He is 6-foot-7 with a 99 mph fastball. That kind of extension makes his fastballs feel 100+ mph. 

Furthermore, I refuse to believe that Boyd is good now after 11 years in MLB. Boyd made his first All-Star Game this summer but has a 57-72 career record with a 4.54 ERA. He is tied for 102nd in Stuff+ out of 202 starters with 20.0 innings pitched. Eventually, Boyd's numbers have to regress to the mean, or, at least, that's partially why I'm betting on the Brewers. 

Related: POST-ALL-STAR BREAK MLB FUTURES, SEASON AWARDS BETS, MORE ODDS

The other reasons are that Milwaukee's bullpen is better across every meaningful metric (WAR, ERA, K-BB%, HR%, etc), and it's more well-rested. Chicago has a better lineup, but the Brewers are tied for 10th in hitting WAR, per FanGraphs. Either way, relief pitching is more important than starting pitching nowadays, and, regardless, Milwaukee has an edge in both. 

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Mariners (56-50) at Athletics (46-62)

Head-to-Head: 

• Seattle leads 4-3.

Current Form: 

• The Mariners are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
• The Athletics are also 5-5 in their past 10, but enter on a four-game winning streak.

Starters 

• Seattle RHP Luis Castillo (7-6, 3.30 ERA).
• Athletics LHP J.P. Sears (7-8, 4.98 ERA).

I'm sheepishly following the line movement. Pinnacle Sportsbook, a "market-making" sportsbook, opened the A's as +114 'dogs, and they are down to +105 at the time of writing. Since Pinnacle is offshore, I have to bet the best available price at FanDuel. This defies basic logic, and it has to be sharp money because the public doesn't move odds in regular-season MLB games. 

The Mariners are four games out of first in the AL West and tied for the final wild-card berth, whereas the Athletics are last in the AL West by six games. Plus, Castillo is a three-time All-Star who's having a good year and pitches well against the A's, while Sears is tied for 117th in Stuff+ among MLB starters with 20.0+ innings pitched. 

So, why is the market investing in the Athletics or selling Seattle? Well, I don't know. Maybe it's because the A's are on a heater and the Mariners are ice-cold at the plate recently. The Athletics are fourth in WAR, fourth in wRC+, and second in ISO post-All-Star break, and Seattle's lineup is 27th in WAR, 27th in wRC+, and 23rd in ISO. 

Despite the Mariners holding a 4-3 lead in the season series, the A's are outscoring them 29-25 in those games. Yes, on paper, Seattle is the better team. However, this is gambling, and respected bettors in the market are backing the Athletics Monday. Who am I to fade that line movement? 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2025 betting record via X all season.