If These Two MLB Bets Don't Hit Friday, I'm Done Betting Baseball This Summer

Reluctantly, I'm getting back into MLB Friday after ending the first half of the season on a six-game losing skid. I'd love to "stop the count," though, considering I'm still up 3.04 units (u) with a +8.0 return on investment. That said, I got in the lab this morning and cooked up a couple of MLB bets for Friday. Feel free to fade or follow them at your peril. 

MLB Best Bets: July 25

• Chicago White Sox moneyline (+152), down to +135, vs. the Cubs via FanDuel, risking 1u.
• Cleveland Guardians moneyline (-104), up to -110, at the Kansas City Royals via FanDuel, risking 1.04u.

Cubs (60-42) at White Sox (37-66)

Head-to-Head: 

• The Cubs swept the White Sox 3-0 earlier this season, outscoring them 26-8.

Current Form: 

• Both teams are 6-4 over their last 10 games.

Starters 

• Cubs LHP Shota Imanaga (7-3, 2.40 ERA).
• White Sox RHP Adrian Houser (5-2, 1.89 ERA).

I don't expect this to continue, but Houser has been great in his first 10 starts this season. He's had a "quality start" (six-plus innings pitched with three or fewer earned runs) in four of his last five outings. Houser's BAbip is .301 when the MLB average is .294, so he's not just getting lucky.

Furthermore, Imanaga is due for regression. He is tied for 88th in FanGraphs' Stuff+, out of 144 MLB starters with 50+ innings pitched, and tied for 83rd in K-BB%, which is the essence of pitching. Plus, Imanaga's BAbip is .197, i.e., he is getting lucky. 

Chicago Cubs LHP Shota Imanaga pitches against the Cleveland Guardians at Wrigley Field. (Photo Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images)

Finally, the White Sox are raking to start the second half of the year. Since the All-Star break, the White Sox are second in WAR, third in wOBA, and fifth in ISO, according to FanGraphs. Whereas the Cubs are outside the top-10 in those metrics. 

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Guardians (51-51) at Royals (50-53)

Head-to-Head: 

• Cleveland is leading the season series 4-2.

Current Form: 

• The Guardians have won seven of their last 10 games.
• KC has split its past 10 games but has won three of the past four.

Starters 

• Cleveland RHP Gavin Williams (6-4, 3.54 ERA).
• Kansas City RHP Michael Wacha (4-9, 3.62 ERA).

The market is investing in the Guardians, who opened as +106 underdogs at Pinnacle Sportsbook and are down to -108 at the time of writing. I like to examine Pinnacle's line movement, as it books the sharpest action in the world. Cleveland has an edge in starting and relief pitching, and has been much hotter at the plate since the All-Star break. 

Williams has a 3.00 ERA over his last seven starts, and Wacha has a 4.82 ERA over that span. Per Statcast, Williams has a 16.9% K-BB% in 83 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Royals, whereas Wacha has an 8.6% K-BB% in 93 PA against current Guardians. 

Also, both bullpens have a 3.72 ERA. However, Cleveland has a 3.64 bullpen Fielding Independent Pitching ("FIP"), and Kansas City's bullpen has a 4.08 FIP, according to FanGraphs, which is more predictive than ERA because it removes factors outside the pitcher's control. 

Finally, the Guardians are third in WAR (1.7) and seventh in wRC+ (126) since the MLB All-Star Game, per FanGraphs. The Royals, on the other hand, have a 1.0 WAR (tied for 13th) and a 105 wRC+ (14th) over that span. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2025 betting record via X all season.